Oregon vs. Texas Tech: Orange Bowl preview, odds as Ducks advance to College Football Playoff quarterfinals

The quarterfinals of the College Football Playoff are upon us, which means the four top seeds will finally get their postseason campaigns underway after a lengthy break following conference championship weekend.

No. 4 Texas Tech waited the longest to officially learn its quarterfinal opponent. But given that No. 5 Oregon entered the first round as a three-touchdown favorite over No. 12 James Madison, the Red Raiders likely got a head start preparing for the Ducks. Despite a spirited effort from the Dukes, Oregon overwhelmed the Sun Belt champions to set up the expected Orange Bowl showdown with Texas Tech -- a matchup that could be one of the best games of the entire Playoff.

There's a fitting symmetry to the pairing. Oregon, once college football's "new money" program, will face the NIL era's fastest riser in Texas Tech. The Ducks have established themselves as a consistent national contender over the past two decades, while the Red Raiders poured major resources into their program and surged to the top of the Big 12 this season as a result.

In many ways, Oregon represents a blueprint for how a program like Texas Tech can build sustained excellence. On New Year's Day in Miami, the Red Raiders will get a chance to show they've already closed that gap.

For two programs long defined by high-powered offenses, the defining trait of this season has been dominant defense. Both teams have been excellent offensively -- they're both top 10 nationally in scoring -- but their defenses have been the engines of their success. As a result, both offenses will face a significant challenge trying to move the ball consistently in this matchup.

What to know about Texas Tech

The Red Raiders earned the No. 4 seed by riding one of the nation's best defenses to a dominant season in the Big 12. Aside from a midseason stumble at Arizona State, Texas Tech bullied its way through the conference, including a pair of blowout wins over BYU that cemented a top-four finish in the CFP rankings and secured a first-round bye.

Texas Tech's defense ranks among the elite nationally, finishing third in scoring defense at 10.9 points allowed per game — trailing only top seeds Indiana and Ohio State. All four of the Red Raiders' AP All-America selections came on the defensive side of the ball, including first-team honors for linebacker Jacob Rodriguez and EDGE David Bailey.

That star-studded unit will be tasked with slowing an Oregon offense that found its rhythm in the second half of the season and finished ninth nationally in scoring at 38.2 points per game. When the Ducks have the ball, it will be a true strength-on-strength battle. Oregon ranked 14th in rushing offense at 218.4 yards per game, while Texas Tech finished No. 1 nationally in rushing defense, allowing just 68.5 yards per game.

Oregon faced two other top-10 defenses in 2025 and failed to crack 21 points against either -- scoring 18 in a win over Iowa and 20 in a loss to Indiana. The Iowa game was played in a downpour, but Indiana held the Ducks to 81 rushing yards on 30 carries. Expect Texas Tech to study that film closely in hopes of replicating what the Hoosiers did up front with their own ultra-talented front seven.

The biggest question for Texas Tech is whether its No. 2 scoring offense can hold up against Oregon's stout defense. The Red Raiders overwhelmed the Big 12, but in their biggest games -- against Utah and BYU twice -- the defense led the way. Oregon represents another step up in competition, and Behren Morton, Cameron Dickey and the rest of the offense will need to bring their A-game.

What to know about Oregon

The Ducks did what was expected in a convincing first-round win at home, overpowering James Madison to set up a heavyweight clash in the Orange Bowl.

The challenge for Oregon will be creating space for its playmakers against a hard-hitting Texas Tech defense. Against James Madison, the Ducks enjoyed a clear speed advantage and exploited it throughout the game. The margins will be far tighter against the Red Raiders.

Oregon typically sets up the pass with the run, but that approach may be flipped against Texas Tech. Quarterback Dante Moore could be asked to shoulder more of the load early, using the passing game to loosen the Red Raiders' front and open opportunities on the ground.

Saturday night's game against James Madison saw Oregon get almost anything it wanted offensively. That will not be the case on Jan. 1, but Moore looked sharp throwing the ball. His confidence and willingness to push it downfield will be critical if the Ducks' offense is going to have success against Texas Tech.

Defensively, the question is whether Oregon can create negative plays to knock Texas Tech off schedule. The Red Raiders would prefer to lean on the run game and avoid putting too much on quarterback Behren Morton. Despite a strong overall defensive season, Oregon ranked near the bottom nationally in havoc metrics, finishing with 57 tackles for loss (113th in FBS) and 23 sacks (81st).

Texas Tech's offense stalled early at times against Utah and BYU, largely due to backfield pressure. While both defenses eventually wore down after spending extended time on the field, the blueprint for slowing the Red Raiders is clear: generate pressure and speed up Morton's decision-making.

Oregon has been steady defensively all season, but it may need to be more creative in manufacturing the disruption necessary to give Texas Tech problems.

Odds below via FanDuel Sportsbook.

Orange Bowl odds, prediction 

I expect a highly competitive game in Miami between the Red Raiders and Ducks as I think there are a lot of similarities between these two teams. Both defenses are excellent and when at their best, the offenses can put up points in bunches. To me this game comes down to which offense can create more explosive plays in a variety of ways, because both defenses are so talented and so good at adapting in-game. I give the Ducks the edge in that department thanks to Moore and see him leading Oregon to a bit of quarterfinal revenge after last year's dud in the Rose Bowl. PICK: Oregon -1.5