No. 11 seed SMU (11-2) faces No. 6 Penn State (11-2) at High Noon on Saturday in Happy Valley in a clash that pits two glory programs of the 1980s against each other (yes, we know what happened to SMU at the end of the decade). The teams have played just once, a 26-21 Penn State win in 1978.
This matchup is rich with intriguing battles, from SMU's dynamic passing attack to Penn State's dominance over the middle. Here are some of the keys to the game.
SMU's Offensive Firepower
Kevin Jennings Under Pressure
SMU quarterback Kevin Jennings has been a model of efficiency under pressure this season. Ranking second in the FBS with a 156.4 passer efficiency rating when pressured, Jennings thrives in chaos. His ability to deliver in these situations could neutralize Penn State's hellacious defensive front, which generates pressure 38.5% of the time, ranking 14th nationally.
| Metric | FBS Rank |
|---|---|
| Pass Efficiency | 156.4 (2nd) |
| Yards/Attempt | 9.8 (2nd) |
| Pass TD | 8 (T-2nd) |
| Pass Yards | 846 (3rd) |
| Completion % | 52.3% (10th) |
Man Coverage Matchup
Penn State employs man coverage 39% of the time, ranking 17th nationally, but that plays directly into Jennings' strengths. He ranks 8th in passing efficiency versus man coverage and has been able to exploit those looks.
| Metric | FBS Rank |
|---|---|
| Yards/Attempt | 9.8 (5th) |
| Pass Efficiency | 176.4 (8th) |
| Pass TD | 10 (T-16th) |
Defensive Pressure Without Blitzing
SMU's defense excels at generating pressure without blitzing, leading the FBS with 154 quarterback pressures. This approach allows the Mustangs to disrupt offenses while maintaining a strong secondary presence. Their effectiveness will be tested against Penn State's balanced attack and a jump in offensive line competition from what SMU faced in ACC play to a bigger, brawnier Nittany Lions line.
| Metric | FBS Rank |
|---|---|
| QB Pressures | 154 (1st) |
| Sacks | 29 (T-6th) |
| QB Pressure % | 37.4% (9th) |
| Interceptions | 12 (T-11th) |
Penn State's Middle-Dominance
Tyler Warren vs SMU's Tight End Struggles
SMU's defense has allowed 627 receiving yards to tight ends this season, ranking 129th in the FBS. Penn State's Mackey Award-winning tight end Tyler Warren is primed to exploit this weakness. Warren holds the Big Ten record for receiving yards by a tight end in a single season and ranks second nationally in that category.
| Metric | Tyler Warren | SMU Defense |
|---|---|---|
| Receptions | 88 (3rd) | 56 (130th) |
| Receiving Yards | 1,062 (2nd) | 627 (129th) |
| Receiving TD | 6 (T-6th) | 7 (T-117th) |
Allar's Efficiency Between the Hashes
Penn State quarterback Drew Allar excels in targeting the middle of the field, ranking fourth in passing efficiency between the hashes. Paired with Warren, who leads all tight ends in receptions in this area, the Nittany Lions could exploit SMU's struggles in defending these routes, where they rank 118th in receptions allowed.
| Metric | Drew Allar | SMU Defense |
|---|---|---|
| Pass Efficiency | 217.3 (4th) | --- |
| Yards/Attempt | 11.6 (7th) | --- |
| Completion % | 78.2% (12th) | --- |
Deep Ball Improvement
Allar's improvement in deep ball accuracy has been a revelation for Penn State. His passer efficiency on throws of 20-plus yards has jumped from 167.3 in 2023 to 257.0 this season, ranking 2nd in the FBS. SMU's defense, which struggles against deep passes, will need to account for this dimension.
| Metric | 2023 | 2024 |
|---|---|---|
| Completion % | 30.6% | 51.4% |
| Yards/Attempt | 10.4 | 17.3 |
| Pass TD | 6 | 8 |
| Pass Efficiency | 167.3 | 257.0 |
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