Pick Six: Rolling with the road dogs and a Penn State at Northwestern lock

If you're wondering whether I'm tired of going 3-3 in Pick Six, the answer is yes. Actually, the answer isn't really "yes," it's something I can't print here without getting in serious trouble, so we'll just go with "yes."

Pick Six seems a bit snake-bitten this year, but I'm learning lessons. Last week, I added Pittsburgh to the List of Teams Not to Be Trusted, and this week I'm throwing Oklahoma State on that pile as well.

Mamas, don't let your babies grow up to bet Cowboys.

Anyway, as for this week, there are only two games between ranked teams on the schedule, and one of those is being played on Thursday night -- the same day Pick Six is published. So I left it up to my Twitter followers to decide which two games they wanted me to feature in Pick Six this week, and the games they chose are West Virginia at TCU and Michigan State at Michigan. If you have a problem with it, take it up with the voters.

Games of the Week

No. 23 West Virginia (+13.5) at No. 8 TCU: There isn't a lot of history between the newest members of the Big 12, though TCU does have the slight advantage, winning three times in five meetings.. I don't have a great read on this game, but the people chose it, so I must find something. And I'm going with the Mountaineers.

I'm a bit worried about the fact that West Virginia is 1-5 ATS in its last six, but one of those is because they couldn't cover 63 points against Delaware State, while the other came in a thrilling game against Virginia Tech. In this game I don't need the Mountaineers to cover as a favorite, I just need them to hang with TCU, and I'm still not entirely sold on Kenny Hill. In fact, I'm reasonably certain West Virginia has the best quarterback in this game and that Will Grier and the Mountaineer defense will make sure this one doesn't get out of hand. TCU 34, West Virginia 28

Michigan State (+10.5) at No. 7 Michigan: I have a natural lean toward underdogs in rivalry games like this, but when they're getting 10 points or more the lure is even stronger.

Of course, I have other reasons, too. First of all, Michigan State has won seven of the last 10 meetings between these teams since Mark Dantonio took over in East Lansing, Michigan. Second, those three losses have come by an average of five points. Last year, Michigan beat Sparty by nine points, and Sparty finished 3-9 that year. It was not good.

If you're looking for trends, Michigan is yet to cover at home this year and was only 4-4 ATS at home last season. Michigan State, meanwhile, is 3-1 ATS in its previous four games as a dog. I'm expecting a lower-scoring affair here. Michigan 23, Michigan State 17

Lock of the Week

No. 4 Penn State (-14.5) at Northwestern: I had high hopes for Northwestern coming into the season and thought they'd be a legitimate contender in the Big Ten West. I no longer feel this way. Frankly, the Northwestern team I've seen this year hasn't been all that impressive, and I can see this one getting away from the Wildcats on Saturday. While the Northwestern defense has been fine for the most part, its offense has managed only 3.27 yards per play against Duke and Wisconsin. Penn State, meanwhile, has one of the best defenses in the Big Ten to this point, and when you combine that with Saquon Barkley, the Lions will roll. Penn State 38, Northwestern 14

Underdog of the Week

Tulsa (+4.5) at Tulane: Tulsa has had a rough start to the 2017 season, but I believe this is a matchup it can exploit. Tulane is 3-1 ATS, but its three covers have come against Grambling State and two option teams in Navy and Army. Tulane runs its version of the option. Against a spread team like Oklahoma, the Wave were blown out 58-14. Now, don't get me wrong, Tulsa isn't Oklahoma (it's just in it), but it's capable of putting points up in a hurry. Tulsa 31, Tulane 23

Over of the Week

Western Michigan at Buffalo (Over 49.5): Western Michigan isn't the same team we saw rowing the boat the last few years, but it's been a reliable over team this season. It's gone over in four of five games with the lone under coming against Michigan State. Buffalo's defense has been pretty good, but I believe its opponents have played a part in it so far. There's a good chance this one goes over in the third quarter. Western Michigan 38, Buffalo 24

Under of the Week

Missouri at Kentucky (Under 61): A few weeks ago I took the under in Auburn-Missouri because it was at 60.5 and I felt it was too high. Well, Auburn scored 51 points and nearly covered the over by itself. Kentucky's offense isn't nearly as potent as Auburn's, but its defense has still been stingy as hell. Kentucky 31, Missouri 14