Baylor coach Art Briles and his Bears will serve as the season's first home opponent for Louisiana-Monroe. (US Presswire) |
Baylor (2-0) at Louisiana-Monroe (1-1)
Kickoff: Friday, 8:00 p.m. ET (ESPN)
Spread: Baylor by 7.5
Watchability: The Warhawks have become college football's favorite underdog du jour after an overtime win against Arkansas and an overtime loss at Auburn to start the season. They certainly will come into this game battle-tested, and playing at home, won't be intimidated by Baylor in the least. Add that to the fact it's the only FBS game on Friday night, and you should certainly be watching if you're staying in for the evening.
Shining stars: Baylor: QB Nick Florence. The senior has looked like a cagey veteran in both of Baylor's first two games, accounting for more than 300 yards passing in each. Florence finished with 392 of Baylor's 544 total yards in last week's win over Sam Houston State. He has thrown seven touchdown passes thus far this season and is second in the Big 12 in passing yards (326.5 per game) and total offense (378.5 yards per game). Louisiana-Monroe: QB Kolton Browning. In games against a pair of SEC defenses, Browning has shown zero signs of being shaken, completing 62 percent of his passes, averaging 324.5 yards per game and tossing six touchdowns against only one interception. Browning has added another 127 yards and two touchdowns on the ground, leading the team in rushing. The junior is clearly comfortable leading the Warhawks offense.
Who could steal the show: Baylor: LB Bryce Hager. He leads the Bears and is tied for seventh in the FBS in average total tackles with 12 per game. He has made plays in the backfield, with a team-high three tackles for loss, to go along with a credited quarterback hurry and a forced fumble. Louisiana-Monroe: K Justin Manton. Manton stole the show in a not-so-positive way in last week's loss to Auburn, as both a 31-yard try in regulation and another attempt in overtime were blocked. Leaving points on the table as an underdog is a recipe for disaster, and Manton (who has yet to make a field goal this year) will need to convert if called upon Friday night.
You going? Ranking the road trip: Fans should be ready to greet the Warhawks, as this game will serve as the team's home-opener after games against SEC foes in both of ULM's first two contests. Malone Stadium only holds 30,000 fans, but if they turn up and wear white for the school's "white out," it should make for a fun atmosphere.
Magic number for Baylor: 15. Turnover margin is an important statistic for Baylor (+5) and Louisiana-Monroe (+3), good enough for third and 16th in the nation, respectively. Baylor has forced at least one takeaway in all 15 of its games with Phil Bennett as defensive coordinator. If ULM can stop that trend, it could compete.
Magic number for Louisiana-Monroe: 9-for-11. That's the Warhawks' conversion rate on fourth downs in the first two games of the season, a staggering 82 percent success rate. The 2011 ULM squad, by comparison, converted only 44.4 percent of its fourth down attempts. No other FBS team has converted more than five attempts on fourth down this season.
The game comes down to: Which team gets off to a fast start? If Baylor could jump on ULM out of the gates, quiet the crowd and take a bit of the fight out of the Warhawks, one might expect the Bears to roll to an easy win. Louisiana-Monroe battled back from a 14-point deficit in the second half against Auburn to force overtime. The longer Baylor lets the underdog hang around, the more ULM's players, coaches and fans might smell another upset.
Prediction: Baylor 38, Louisiana-Monroe 28
For more up-to-the-minute news and analysis from Big 12 bloggers C.J. Moore and Patrick Southern, follow @CBSSportsBig12 on Twitter. You can also follow C.J. (@cjmoore4) and Patrick (@patricksouthern).