As we enter rivalry week, six SEC teams are still alive for a spot in the College Football Playoff, though the conference appears destined to land only three in the field. (Note: I'll always refer to this as "rivalry week" because I'm not emotionally prepared for the end of the regular season.)
There are the favorites in the playoff race -- Georgia, Texas and Tennessee -- and the longshot hopefuls of Alabama, South Carolina and Texas A&M. Two of those teams can improve their stock (South Carolina and Texas A&M), while two more could outright eliminate themselves from contention (Texas and Tennessee).
All eyes will be on College Station, Texas, for the long-awaited return of the Texas vs. Texas A&M rivalry. Not only are bragging rights on the line for the first time in 13 years, but a spot in the conference championship game is up for grabs. It's arguably the biggest Lonestar Showdown in the series' history, and it's fascinating to ponder what a win could do for the Aggies and how it might impact the Longhorns, who have yet to pick up a signature win in the playoff committee's eyes. Then again, it might not matter if the 'Horns do the expected and win -- but is Texas our pick this week?
Just a SECond
A few notes from the CBS Sports Research team to chew on between bites of Thanksgiving turkey and casserole:
- The Iron Bowl features an Alabama team outside the AP top 10 for the first time since 2007.
- Alabama will try to avoid back-to-back losses in the regular season for the firs time since 2007.
- Texas leads the nation in yards allowed per play (4).
- Texas has forced two or more turnovers in six straight games.
- Mississippi State has lost seven straight against ranked teams.
- A win Friday would give Ole Miss its fifth SEC win in back-to-back seasons for the first time since 2014-15.
- Georgia and Georgia Tech have split the last four games played in Athens.
SEC picks for Week 14
Straight up: 89-24 | Against the spread: 54-49-2
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Mississippi State at Ole Miss (Friday)
One could argue Ole Miss will come out on fire, motivated by its loss to Florida and looking to take out its frustrations on rival Mississippi State in the Egg Bowl. I understand the sentiment, but weird stuff happens in this rivalry, and I suspect the Rebels' disappointment in missing the playoff will lead to a flatter-than-expected performance. That's not to say the Bulldogs will win or make it close, but Mississippi State's performances in previous road games at Texas, Georgia and Tennessee (all covers) provide enough evidence to believe Jeff Lebby will keep this within four touchdowns. Pick: Mississippi State +26
Georgia Tech at Georgia (Friday)
It's difficult making heads or tails of Georgia week to week, and yet the Bulldogs appear to be one of the nation's most dangerous playoff teams. The Bulldogs allowed 226 rushing yards against UMass last week, the most the program has allowed in six years, and they still cruised to a 38-point win. Georgia's defense isn't what it used to be and has allowed 12 points or more in nine straight games, the longest streak in the Kirby Smart era. Georgia has won 30 consecutive games at home and 40 straight overall against unranked teams. Georgia Tech is 4-0 against the spread in its last four games against top-10 opponents, and Georgia is 0-5 against the spread this season as a 20-point favorite. Georgia's defensive issues and coach Brent Key's propensity to keep it close against top-tier teams lead me to give the betting nod to Tech. Pick: Georgia Tech +19.5
South Carolina at Clemson
Might the Palmetto Bowl be a play-in game for the College Football Playoff? We'll find out, and a lot needs to happen around this game for that to transpire, but this might be the biggest game in this rivalry's history. South Carolina is rolling with three straight wins against ranked teams, and Clemson is clinging to ACC title (and playoff) hopes after losing to Louisville at home a couple of weeks ago. Dabo Swinney is 0-4 against South Carolina when the Gamecocks are ranked, but that hasn't happened since 2013. Shane Beamer upset the Tigers the last time these two met in Clemson. Clemson's defense is solid, and the Tigers rank third in turnover margin, which should slow South Carolina's rushing attack just enough to win and cover. Pick: Clemson -2.5
Louisville at Kentucky
Louisville has looked the part of a contender in the ACC all season, battling Miami and SMU in close losses before upsetting Clemson on the road. Kentucky has been an absolute disappointment this season, even with an upset of nationally ranked Ole Miss on the road in September, which is still baffling in retrospect. Kentucky will pin its hopes on new starting quarterback Cutter Boley, the freshman who has provided some life to an otherwise dull offense. It won't be enough. Pick: Louisville -3.5
Tennessee at Vanderbilt
If you had told Tennessee fans the only thing standing between them and a spot in the College Football Playoff is Vanderbilt at the end of the season, they would have jumped for joy and booked their tickets. Vanderbilt, however, is much better than the preseason expectations, and though they haven't quite popped in the last month of the season (1-3 in last four games), the Commodores are still a threat to upset the Vols as long as quarterback Diego Pavia is healthy. Vandy is 1-2 against ranked teams, and those games have been decided by five points or less, including the win against then-No. 1 Alabama. The 'Dores keep it close again in a low-scoring game in the 20s. Pick: Vanderbilt +11
Auburn at Alabama
Many are chalking up the Iron Bowl as an upset possibility because of Alabama's struggles, and while strange things do happen in this rivalry game, it almost always happens in Auburn. The Tigers haven't won an Iron Bowl in Tuscaloosa since 2010, and Alabama outscored Auburn by nearly 27 points during that stretch inside Bryant-Denny Stadium. Yes, this Alabama team is different under first-year coach Kalen DeBoer, but consider just how much better the Tide perform at home with quarterback Jalen Milroe than on the road. They average 43.2 points per game at home. Also, Alabama leads the SEC in turnover margin (+11) and Auburn (-11) is last. Not much has changed for the Tigers, who are still erratic on offense despite breaking a 13-game losing streak against ranked teams last week against Texas A&M. The Tide roll to a two-touchdown win. Pick: Alabama -11.5
Arkansas at Missouri
Missouri owns the new Battle Line rivalry with seven wins in the last eight meetings, and the Tigers have won five straight at home, a streak stretching back to 1944. Mizzou may struggle to put teams away, even at home (see: Oklahoma), but we were impressed with the comeback at South Carolina before losing late. The Tigers have more talent at the skill spots, and Arkansas is prone to penalties (97th penalty yardage) and turnovers (110th turnover margin) in critical moments on offense. The Hogs have lost nine of their last 10 against ranked teams, though their lone win occurred this season against Tennessee. Mizzou wins with a balanced attack in a low-scoring game to cover for the sixth time in its last seven games. Pick: Missouri -3.5
Florida at Florida State
Despite BIlly Napier entering October on the hottest seat, Florida has turned its season around. The win against Ole Miss cemented the positive shift in tone, and now the Gators have a shot at finishing with seven wins against the most challenging schedule in school history. Florida and Florida State are both expected to start true freshmen at quarterback, which is a first in the rivalry, but there's a clear difference in experience. Gators quarterback DJ Lagway has proven himself as a multi-game starter with wins against ranked LSU and Ole Miss, and the offense is clearly better with him on the field, particularly in the passing game (10.6 yards vs. 7 yards per pass). Florida State is throwing anything and everything it can against the wall and hasn't yet scored 21 points against an FBS team this season. The third-worst year in Florida State history will end with a resounding thud. Pick: Florida -15
Oklahoma at LSU
LSU hasn't slowed a dual-threat quarterback yet this season. Jalen Milroe torched the Tigers and Marcel Reed sparked Texas A&M off the bench with his legs as well. Might Oklahoma's Jackson Arnold be next? He ran for 134 yards in a 24-3 upset of Alabama last week to push the Sooners to bowl eligibility. LSU is at a crossroads nearing the end of Brian Kelly's third season. This was supposed to be the defining year for the program. After all, Kelly has two undefeated seasons in his third year at two other coaching stops. Instead, it's been marred by subpar performances, particularly against teams with mobile quarterbacks. Still, Oklahoma's offense has issues -- Arnold threw for less than 70 yards last week -- and the Tigers' strength is along the defensive line. Pick: LSU -6
Texas at Texas A&M
You couldn't have asked for a better stage for the Lonestar Showdown after a 13-year absence from the schedule. Texas and Texas A&M meet in College Station where a spot in the SEC Championship Game is on the line, and in what many would argue is the biggest game in the rivalry's history. Texas has beaten most opponents by double digits, but its playoff resume is not strong because of a 15-point home loss to Georgia. Without a top-25 win to hang their 10-gallon hat, the Longhorns might be in a must-win situation Saturday night. Texas A&M is not great on the road but is solid at home, and the defensive line could be an issue for the Longhorns' offensive line. How healthy is quarterback Quinn Ewers' ankle? We'll find out Saturday night. Longhorns barely cover the spread and secure a spot in the SEC Championship Game and, ultimately, the College Football Playoff. Pick: Texas -6
SportsLine's proven computer model is calling for 13 outright upsets in Week 14 of college football. Visit SportsLine now to see them all, plus get spread picks for every game from the model that simulates every matchup 10,000 times.
