The SEC will see its ranks swell for the first time since 2012 and just the second time since the turn of the century as Texas and Oklahoma join the fold. While the Longhorns and Sooners don't expand the SEC's geographical footprint too much, they do add to the league's already significant total of college football blue bloods.
But just because Texas and Oklahoma have historical success doesn't mean the transition to a new conference will be seamless. The Sooners have the more difficult overall schedule on paper but the Longhorns will host Georgia on Oct. 19 in arguably college football's game of the year.
Still, many have penciled in Texas as an immediate competitor, while Oklahoma seems like a bit more of a wild card. Regardless of preseason outlook, the range of outcomes varies wildly with moves like these. We'll look at the extremes, though the actual result likely lies somewhere in the middle.
Here are the best- and worst-case scenarios for Texas and Oklahoma as they make a move to the SEC.
Texas
Best case: Texas could take this thing all the way to a national title. The Longhorns are already a trendy pick to compete for an SEC championship and seem about as close as one can get to a lock for a return to the College Football Playoff. Coach Steve Sarkisian has this program firing on all cylinders, with elite recruiting and a steady build towards a national breakout finally paying off in 2023. QB Quinn Ewers is back to lead an offense bolstered by key receiver transfers, a rising star in running back CJ Baxter and an offensive line loaded with talent. An early road game against a rebuilt Michigan team could set the tone for the year, while an October home game against Georgia gives Texas the opportunity to announce its arrival to the SEC in grand fashion.
Worst case: On the other hand, Texas could see a bit of a drop off if it can't handle the weekly rigors of an SEC schedule. It isn't hard to fathom three losses -- a worst-case scenario for which most programs can only hope -- if everything goes wrong. Despite what Michigan may have lost, the Wolverines should still have one of the nation's most ferocious defenses, and it's never easy to win in Ann Arbor. And then there's Georgia, which has been the toughest out in the SEC over the past few seasons. Those are two potential losses right there. Oklahoma always presents a tough challenge, and Texas' regular-season finale reviving the rivalry against Texas A&M could be a sneaky upset pick with emotions sure to fly high. First-year Aggies coach Mike Elko will be gunning hard for a cornerstone win within the friendly confines of Kyle Field on which to build his program.
Texas should, at worst, split those games, which would put it right at 9-3 if the bounces don't go its way against Michigan and Georgia. A respectable showing for a nascent SEC program, but well short of the national championship aspirations around Austin.
Oklahoma
Best case: At least 10 wins are on the table for Brent Venables' squad. The Sooners start the year with four straight home games, including their first SEC contest against a strong Tennessee team that has struggled on the road in big environments under Josh Heupel. Other games against the likes of Auburn, Missouri and LSU seem like coin flips at this point. The Sooners will need to be at their absolute best to beat the likes of Alabama and Ole Miss, and it will be hard to pull the upset against Texas, but it doesn't seem fair to chalk any of those games up as automatic losses.
Oklahoma will be fielding its best defense in years; Venables has put in a ton of work improving that side of the ball from the line of scrimmage back. The Sooners also have skill talent in droves and a veteran group of wide receivers that will help acclimate first-year starting quarterback Jackson Arnold. At least ten wins would put OU right on the doorstep of the College Football Playoff, with the potential to make the cut with at-large spots up for grabs.
Worst case: All of those aforementioned games could just as well go the other way for the Sooners. Not that they're going to completely whiff on their entire conference slate, but 6-6 is feasible if some crucial concerns prove to be even worse. Chief among them is a new offensive line replacing five players with starting experience. In a vacuum, that raises an immediate red flag about Oklahoma's ability to compete right off the bat. When you realize that Arnold will be taking his first meaningful season-long snaps behind this entirely rebuilt front wall, that red flag becomes an alarm. The Sooners did bring some meaningful talent in via the transfer portal and Bill Bedenbaugh is as good of an offensive line coach as anyone in football, so there's hope that all the hand-wringing may be for naught.
Still, it's the type of inconsistency that could cause growing pains, and it's not ideal with Tennessee, Auburn and Texas as the first three games in conference play. Taking time to figure things out could cost a couple wins and, at worst, set Oklahoma back a good bit as it navigates a league where games are won and lost at the scrimmage line.
