The No. 9 SMU Mustangs will host the California Golden Bears in a new ACC battle on Saturday, after both programs joined the conference this season. SMU is 10-1 overall and 5-1 at home, while California is 6-5 overall and 2-2 on the road. The Mustangs won the lone previous matchup back in 1957. SMU has already clinched a spot in next week's ACC Championship Game.
Kickoff is at 3:30 p.m. ET at Gerald J. Ford Stadium in Dallas. The Mustangs are favored by 13.5 points in the latest SMU vs. Cal odds, per SportsLine consensus, and the over/under is 55.5 points. Before entering any Cal vs. SMU picks, you'll want to see the college football predictions from the model at SportsLine.
The model simulates every FBS game 10,000 times. Since its inception, it has generated a betting profit of well over $2,000 for $100 players on its top-rated college spread football picks, and it is a strong 27-17 on all top-rated picks over the past nine weeks of this season. Anyone following at sportsbooks and on betting apps has seen strong returns.
The model has set its sights on California vs. SMU. You can head to SportsLine to see its picks. Here are several college football betting lines for SMU vs. California:
- SMU vs. Cal spread: SMU -13.5
- SMU vs. Cal over/under: 55.5 points
- SMU vs. Cal money line: SMU: -485, California: +368
- SMU vs. Cal picks: See picks at SportsLine
- SMU vs. Cal streaming: FuboTV (Try for free)
Why SMU can cover
After defeating the Virginia Cavaliers by a 33-7 margin on Saturday, the Mustangs are now riding an eight-game win streak. Among those leading the charge over UVA was Kevin Jennings, who threw for 323 yards and two touchdowns while rushing for another, as well as a vaunted SMU defense, which racked up nine sacks. The heavy lifting was done by Isaiah Smith and Jared Harrison-Hunte, who had two sacks each, while SMU was a stone wall on third down, allowing Virginia to convert only three of 15 attempts.
Even with that dominant defensive performance, the offense is the star of Southern Methodist, as it ranks fifth in Division I with 39.3 points per game. Jennings leads the ACC in yards per attempt and yards per completion as he's provided a big-play element since taking over for Preston Stone. Meanwhile, Brashard Smith paces the run game, leading the conference in touchdowns while ranking second in rushing yards. Also, after failing to cover in its first two games of the season, SMU has since gone 6-2 against the spread during its current eight-game win streak. See which team to pick here.
Why Cal can cover
Meanwhile, California narrowly escaped with a victory on Saturday as the team sidled past Stanford 24-21. Fernando Mendoza threw for 299 yards and three touchdowns, while also breaking off a 50-yard run. Another difference-maker was wideout Jonathan Brady, who picked up 64 receiving yards and two touchdowns. It was the third victory over the last four games for Cal, which has followed a four-game losing streak.
The Golden Bears are both 3-1 ATS on the road and as an underdog this season, and they have the best defense in this matchup. Cal leads the ACC in scoring defense, ranks second in the nation in defensive interceptions (17), and is eighth in the country in total takeaways (22). Cal also protects the ball when its offense takes the field, averaging fewer than one giveaway per game, while the Mustangs have several holes on defense, such as allowing the third-most passing touchdowns amongst ACC squads. See which team to pick here.
How to make SMU vs. California picks
The model has simulated Cal vs. SMU 10,000 times and the results are in. We can tell you that the model is leaning Over, and it's also generated a point-spread pick that hits in well over 50% of simulations. You can only see the pick at SportsLine.
So who wins Southern Methodist vs. California, and which side of the spread hits well over 50% of the time? Visit SportsLine now to see which side of the California vs. Southern Methodist spread to jump on, all from the advanced model that is up well over $2,000 on top-rated spread picks since its inception, and find out.
