No. 8 SMU has put together a magical season, qualifying for the ACC championship game in its first year with the conference as just one of four FBS teams with an unblemished record in league play through the regular season.
Unfortunately, the Mustangs' quest for an ACC title came to an unsatisfying end Saturday night in the ACC title game against No. 17 Clemson. SMU rallied from a 31-14 fourth quarter deficit to tie the Tigers with just seconds left on the clock, but a Clemson kickoff return and a 17-yard completion helped set up a 57-yard walk-off field goal that dashed SMU's perfect conference record.
As heartbreaking as the defeat was, it shouldn't be the end of the Mustangs' run toward the College Football Playoff.
First off, the selection committee would be setting an extremely dangerous precedent if it excludes SMU.
It would provide incentive for teams to do everything they can to avoid a conference championship game in the future. Why risk a 13th data point, which almost 90% of the FBS doesn't have to worry about, if it could cost you a shot at the national title?
The selection committee already laid the groundwork in 2023 when it excluded Florida State despite its 13-0 record and ACC crown. Conference championship games, an institution in this sport, can hardly take any more damage.
Beyond that, SMU is simply more deserving than any other at-large bubble team that could take its place. The Mustangs won 11 regular-season games. Eleven. They went undefeated in conference play and won those eight ACC games by an average of 19.4 points.
The fact that SMU even earned the right to play for a conference title should separate it from teams like Alabama, Ole Miss and South Carolina, all of which lost three conference games and didn't come close to competing for a championship.
Those SEC teams had some very bad losses, too. Alabama fell to Vanderbilt for the first time since 1984 and lost 24-3 to an Oklahoma team that finished 2-6 in conference play. Ole Miss lost twice to unranked teams as a double-digit favorite.
SMU's only other loss this year? In Week 2, by three points, to a BYU team that currently ranks No. 18 in the country.
Sure, SMU doesn't have any wins against currently ranked opponents. Neither does 11-1 Indiana, but the Hoosiers -- who, again, did not qualify for a conference championship game -- don't have to sweat their College Football Playoff fate after landing at No. 9 in the latest rankings.
A lot of people, including the selection committee, point to strength of schedule when debating the merits of similarly situated teams. While it's a fine metric to determine relative conference strength, it's almost useless in a vacuum.
For instance, 2-10 Mississippi State currently has the No. 1 strength of schedule, per ESPN's FPI. Should the Bulldogs be in playoff consideration just because they play in the SEC?
Games -- and the results of those games -- have to matter. SMU's strength of schedule ranks 75th, but its strength of record -- which accounts for what actually happened on the field -- is ninth. That's one spot ahead of Alabama, two spots ahead of South Carolina, four spots ahead of Boise State and nine spots ahead of Ole Miss.
SMU even has the per-game metrics to back a playoff bid. It currently ranks fifth nationally in scoring offense (39.2 points per game) and 19th nationally in scoring defense (19.8 points per game). If you're not impressed by the latter, that's better than Georgia.
SMU is, by every possible measurement, a playoff team. There's not much a close loss to Clemson should do to change that.
