Your weekly serving of college football roster acquisition thoughts -- recruiting, transfer portal, you name it -- from 247Sports Director of Scouting Andrew Ivins.
A way-too-early re-rank of the 2023 QB recruits
A few weeks ago, the Talent Tracker put the five-star quarterbacks from the class of 2022 in the spotlight as the college football season kicked off. That group -- for the most part -- continues to underwhelm. But that doesn't mean there aren't some young signal callers to get excited about as conference play gets underway.
After an unexpected Week 3 breakthrough for blue-chip quarterbacks in the class of 2023, the heralded second-year passers will take center stage this weekend. The main act will pit Tenneessee's Nico Iamaleva against Oklahoma's Jackson Arnold, but the jam-packed slate also features what could be Arch Manning's first career start at Texas and a chance for Michigan State's Aidan Chiles, Kansas State's Avery Johnson, Pittsburgh's Eli Holstein and Arizona State's Sam Leavitt to all improve to 4-0 on the year.
It's still way too early to label any of those quarterbacks as a hit or a bust, but we're always trying to self-scout at 247Sports and see what we're tracking to get right or tracking to get wrong. Given the fact that we now have a small sample size for a majority of the highly-ranked quarterbacks in the 2023 cycle, why not try to re-rank them?
Some things to consider: Of the 15 quarterbacks who finished ranked inside the Top247, six of them have already transferred schools: (Dante Moore from UCLA to Oregon, Malachi Nelson from USC to Boise State, Jaden Rashada from Arizona State to Georgia, Chiles from Oregon State to Michigan State, Austin Mack from Washington to Alabama and Holstein from Alabama to Pittsburgh). A handful of the 15 quarterbacks have yet to really see any extended game action, but seven have already started multiple games.
Are we overreacting a bit with this exercise given the limited data points? Probably, but then again we have been scouting these kids well before they signed on the dotted line and know them better than most.
1. Arch Manning, Texas (2023 ranking: QB1)
Multiple times throughout the evaluation process we stated that Arch Manning would have been our top-ranked quarterback prospect even if his name was Arch Smith. The public seems to finally be seeing the light. Sure, a one-of-a-kind NFL pedigree certainly holds some weight, but Manning is so much more than the name on the back of his jersey. Thrust into action last week against UTSA after Quinn Ewers got injured, Manning's first pass resulted in a 19-yard touchdown after he fired a dart on the move. A few minutes later, he raced 67 yards for another score. In all, Manning threw for 223 yards and accounted for five touchdowns in nine series. That's a far cry from his 2023 spring game performance where he went 5-of-13 passing for 30 yards. Manning wasn't viewed as a ready-to-play signal caller coming out, but he looks to be ahead of schedule.
2. Nico Iamaleava, Tennessee (2023 ranking: QB2)
From a pure resume standpoint, one could make the case that Nico Iamalaeva should be ranked ahead of Arch Manning. That's certainly fair and it's not crazy to envision a scenario where the two are the top quarterbacks selected in consecutive NFL Drafts. Iamaleava is a freaky athlete for the position who can dial up the RPMs with a rapid release that's tailor made for Josh Heupel's veer and shoot offense. He heads to Norman with a 4-0 record and two ranked wins under his belt as the Vols have blasted both Iowa and NC State with Iamaleava running point. Having had live exposure to Iamaleava throughout the recruiting process, arguably the most encouraging development since he arrived in Knoxville has been his footwork. The scary part? Iamaleava doesn't appear to be firing on all cylinders just yet.
3. Aidan Chiles, Michigan State (2023 ranking: QB7)
After getting some burn last fall at Oregon State in a reserve role, Aidan Chiles followed coach Jonathan Smith to Michigan State this past winter. It has been a rollercoaster of a few weeks for Chiles with his 4 to 4 TD-INT ratio, but the highs have been extremely high as few others can push the ball down the field like he does. That's backed up by an average depth of target that currently ranks first in the Big Ten per the folks at Pro Football Focus. Chiles is far from a complete product and will need to keep improving as a decision marker, but he's an anticipatory thrower with a high-powered arm that's proven to be a savvy mover in the pocket. A late bloomer, Chiles entered his senior year of high school having started just 11 varsity games due to the pandemic and an injury. He's only going to get better with more seasoning.
4. Avery Johnson, Kansas State (2023 ranking: QB9)
A Freak's List alum, Avery Johnson is another young quarterback that has already notched a pair of ranked wins. While he might not be a high-percentage passer, he's an elite playmaker that can create some magic off script. Coming off a career-high 110 rushing yards against Arizona, it's easy to view Johnson as a dynamic runner that's moonlighting as a quarterback, but he doesn't get enough credit for his ability to distribute on the move as some of his best shots come off platform. Sunday evaluators likely won't love the slender frame on Johnson, but he tested off the charts in high school (4.5 seconds in the 40-yard dash to go with a 36-inch vertical jump) and he continues to demonstrate the ability to be very opportunistic in the passing game. Kansas State seems to have the right idea by surrounding him with personnel that fits his chaotic play style.
5. Dante Moore, Oregon (2023 ranking: QB3)
One of the more decorated high school quarterbacks in the class, Moore arrived at UCLA with no shortage of experience having won 40 games at the prep level. He started five times as a rookie for the Bruins before transferring to Oregon where he's sitting behind Heisman Trophy hopeful Dillon Gabriel this season. We haven't seen much of Moore recently, but he had his moments last year with his best performance coming at Utah. Yes, it came in a losing effort, but for someone that was pressured on pretty much every snap, he delivered some big-time throws. FSU learned last season that you're only as good as your No. 2 quarterback (at least in the eyes of the College Football Playoff Committee) and while Moore hasn't been called upon just yet, he should be able to provide the Ducks with a more than serviceable option under center, if needed.
6. Jackson Arnold, Oklahoma (2023 ranking: QB4)
It has been tough sledding so far for Jackson Arnold, who has been sacked eight times through three games this season. He's another quarterback that has dealt with turnover issues as both of his starts against Power Four opponents were multi-interception outings. Still, he has put some quality spells of play on tape and has given defenses fits with his slick reads on run-pass options. Arnold's deep ball was a bit of a question mark coming out of high school and it remains a limiting factor as he has only completed three passes over 20 yards this year. His 5.4 yards per attempt also ranks second to last amongst starting quarterbacks in the SEC. The Sooners are breaking in a brand new o-line this season and have been without star receiver Nic Anderson, so the cards haven't exactly been stacked in Arnold's favor to start his collegiate career. A lot will be asked of him against Tennessee.
7. Eli Holstein, Pittsburgh (2023 ranking: QB12)
Expectations were low for Eli Holstein after a quick exit at Alabama, but he has been one of the biggest surprises of the entire season thus far. After engineering a 21-point comeback against Cincinnati, he rallied Pittsburgh past rival West Virginia last week in dramatic fashion. A deceptively good athlete, Holstein is the perfect trigger man for offensive coordinator Kade Bell's wide-open system as he gets the ball out fast and can accurately distribute to all three levels of the field. He will take some risks, but so far the good has outweighed the bad. What also stands out about Holstein's early play is how he climbs in the pocket and avoids pressure while hunting touchdowns. The initial feedback on Holstein coming out of Tuscaloosa wasn't exactly favorable, but he's got a chance to emerge as one of the ACC's top quarterbacks.
8. Sam Leavitt, Arizona State (2023 ranking: QB18)
A late rankings riser that flipped his commitment from Washington State to Michigan State at the buzzer, Sam Leavitt surfaced at Arizona State after a year that everyone wants to forget in East Lansing. The Sun Devils entered the season tied for the lowest win total in the Big 12, but a bowl game seems much more attainable as Leavitt has led the team to three straight wins. He has been far from perfect, but has been able to attack the middle of the field at a high clip and has yet to toss a turnover-worthy pass according to PFF. We knew Leavitt was mobile, but we didn't realize how much of an improviser he can be as his 13 scrambles are the second most amongst Power Four starters. Leavitt also deserves some credit for how tough he is as he will take a lick and be ready to go the next play.
9. Marcel Reed, Texas A&M (2023 ranking: QB20)
We'll admit that recency bias might be playing a large factor with Reed's slotting, but he was an assassin for the Aggies in his first career start. With Conner Weigman sidelined, Reed led Texas A&M to its first road victory in 1,065 days as he accounted for 261 yards of total offense and three touchdowns in wet conditions at Florida. Reed is a quick-twitch athlete with a live arm that has displayed the ability to make every throw on the field. He isn't always the most consistent with his ball placement, but he can unlock things for an offense with his make-you-miss agility as a runner. Reed must keep progressing and show that his debut wasn't some fluke, but he's looking like one of the more explosive quarterbacks in the class.
10. Austin Simmons, Ole Miss (2023 ranking: QB35)
Simmons making the list is going to surprise many, but we're already regretting not putting a fourth star next time his name after he decided to reclassify and skip his final two years of high school. The intel last summer on Simmons was extremely favorable and the buzz ramped up even more this offseason before Lane Kiffin picked the southpaw over LSU transfer Walker Howard as Jackson Dart's primary backup. Simmons has only attempted 20 passes in mop-up duty, but the ball simply jumps out his hands before it cuts through the air. If something were to happen to Dart, the initial assessment is that Simmons appears ready to drive the Rebels' offense.
Laugh now, but FSU's 0-3 start could become a reality for others
It seems like everyone is trying to diagnose what has gone wrong at Florida State. My take? The Seminoles are one of the first to experience the peaks and valleys in the new age of college football.
Mike Norvell navigated the transfer portal like a seasoned captain en route to last year's magical 13-0 run with FSU hitting on pretty much every single transfer. But this year's shocking 0-3 start is a stark reminder that evaluating football players is really hard, especially when decisions are being made in the snap of the finger.
With the NCAA shifting to a 30-day winter window last year and pretty much everyone trying to upgrade its roster at the same time, the market for difference-making veterans was as active as ever. The Seminoles swung for the fences, but came up short in a number of high-profile recruitments as Brendan Sonnone of Noles247 detailed last week. That forced FSU to pivot to other players and most of the time Plan B just isn't as good as Plan A. And that's where the real root of the problem stems for the Seminoles.
Over the past two years, FSU plugged a majority of its roster holes with transfers. It was the right move given the on-field success, but the Seminoles are now feeling the long-term effects as the players they signed out of high school simply didn't get the reps needed to foster development or aren't good enough. That has created the situation where FSU is fielding a team that just isn't nearly as competitive as it was in previous years as the second-tier transfer portal additions can't carry the lack of home-grown talent.
In the loss to Memphis, just six players from FSU's 2022 and 2023 recruiting classes started the game. Three of those players were making their first career starts for the Seminoles. On the flip side, seven transfers were in the starting line up and that number would have been higher if it weren't for some injuries.
FSU's tumble is a bit extreme, but it's a situation that other schools can find themselves in if they push all the chips in for a College Football Playoff berth and put player growth and high school recruiting on the backburner.
Michigan needs four Will Johnsons vs. WR-loaded USC
All eyes will be on Alex Orji when Michigan and USC line it up on Saturday (3:30 ET, CBS) as the new starting quarterback for the Wolverines will be tasked with moving the chains against a revamped defense for the Trojans.
Orgi will certainly be a deciding factor in the outcome of the game, but if Michigan is going to prevail then the defense will also have to keep a USC wide receiver room full of budding stars in check and that won't be easy as future first-round pick Will Johnson is only one man. It's a similar dilemma Michigan faced two weeks ago vs. Texas, where speed demon Isaiah Bond got much of the attention and Quinn Ewers looked elsewhere.
The Trojans enter the weekend with the nation's No. 7-ranked passing attack, averaging 336.5 yards through the air per game. Johnson can certainly shade one side of the field, but that's going to create opportunities for whoever lines up opposite of him, and that's an issue for the Wolveriences as Zachariah Branch, Kyron Hudson, Kyle Ford, Ja'Kobi Lane, Duce Robinson and Makai Lemon all look like difference-makers.
Entering the year, many thought that USC's wide receiver play would take a step back after the Trojans lost veterans Brendan Rice and Tahj Washington to the NFL, but so far it has been the opposite. In the season opener against LSU, USC's wideouts produced 10 explosive plays and was credited by PFF with seven contented catches.
That rare blend of data speaks to the wide range of skill sets Lincoln Riley has brought together to catch passes from Miller Moss. Branch is one of the fastest players in all of college football while Hudson and Ford mix size with speed.
Lane and Robinson are both over 6-foot-4 and have the bounce to play above opponent's shoulder pads. Lemon is a snappy route runner that's hard to corral with the ball in his hands. It's a unique group and one that's built to challenge defenses even if they have an All-American on the perimeter.
Caden Durham is the bell cow LSU's been waiting for
LSU running back Caden Dunham was named the 247Sports True Freshman of the Week after he provided a much-needed spark for the Tigers in a thrilling 36-33 win at South Carolina. The former four-star recruit carried the ball 11 times for 98 yards and two touchdowns, forcing seven missed tackles in the process.
Durham's success isn't all that surprising as I thought he played his best football the final two months of his prep career. In the Texas 6A playoffs, he averaged close to 200 yards per game rushing. That included a 226-yard effort in Duncanville's title-winning blowout of North Shore. Durham then showed up to the Polynesian Bowl in Hawaii and led the all-star game in rushing yards.
One SEC general manager compared Durham to D'Andre Swift this time last year. After watching Durham gash into the second level of the Gamecocks' defense and bounce off tacklers, the comp fits. More importantly, his emergence could give LSU's offense a much-needed bellcow as it looks to reinvent itself after the loss of three first-round picks and play caller Mike Denbrock. As Kirk Herbstreit aptly noted on the ABC broadcast, it's been a while we saw a potential work horse running back like this in the Bayou.
Sneaky-Good Commit of The Week
OT Jack Shaffer to Washington
Jedd Fisch built a nasty offensive line in a short amount of time at Arizona and he's pacing to do the same in Seattle. Jack Shaffer flipping his commitment from Iowa State to Washington late Tuesday won't move the needle for many, but the North Dakota-based offensive tackle is an athletic mauler with an excellent multi-sport profile that loves to put his assignments in the ground.
Ranked as the nation's No. 40 offensive tackle, Shaffer joins a Huskies' recruiting class that also includes four-star offensive tackle Zac Stascausky and four-star interior lineman Champ Taulealea. Both Georgia and Oregon have started to sniff around Stascausky, who Washington pulled away from Minnesota this summer. If Fisch & Co. can hang on in Year 1 of the rebuild, the transition to the Big Ten is going to be much easier.
'Freak' of The Week
Auburn RB commit Alvin Henderson
How does one follow up a 435-yard, 10-touchdown rushing performance? By running for 354 yards and seven more scores the following week, of course. Auburn commit Alvin Henderson is putting up Derrick Henry-like numbers this fall at Elba (Ala.) High School and has now rushed for 1,297 yards and 24 touchdowns through the first four games of his senior season while averaging an absurd 13.2 yards per carry
Henderson might just now be making national headlines, but behind the scenes he has always been viewed as one of the best high school players in the 2025 cycle. He came into the year with 7,274 rushing yards to his credit and has a legitimate shot to be the first 10,000-yard rusher in Alabama high school football history. Not bad. Henderson didn't make this year's annual Freaks List, but maybe he should have deserved a spot. After all, he hit 21 MPH in a game last season while wearing a Catapult GPS tracker.
