Oklahoma's rally from 10-point deficit to stun No. 1 Texas 27-24 on a last-second field goal on Saturday brought a reminder of what college football is all about. Records be darned, rivalry showdowns bring out the sport's insanity and create outcomes an algorithm would never forecast
But if there's a redeeming thought for Texas fans to cling to amidst the agony of a loss to Oklahoma that never should have happened, it's this: the Longhorns still have margin for error in their quest to reach the College Football Playoff.
The CBS Sports College Football Playoff Forecaster projects Texas with a 66.8% chance to reach the CFP, even after losing to the Sooners. That's because the Longhorns will still have a case for at-large inclusion even if they arrive at Selection Sunday with three losses, which is a distinct possibility.
While the admission of a three-loss team would be a first in the 12-team playoff era, Texas would be a likely candidate to set the precedent if it winds up going 9-3.
Four of Texas' next five games are against opponents who will be ranked in the Week 7 AP poll. Six of the Longhorns' final seven contests are against teams that have been ranked among the top 16 at some point this season. If Texas doesn't get more buttoned up soon, Saturday's defeat won't be its last.
But the Longhorns hold a trump card in the form of a Week 2 win over No. 5 Ohio State that won't be depreciating in value anytime soon.
What about two-loss Texas?
A year ago, Vanderbilt was left out of the 12-team playoff as a 2-loss SEC team. So, would the Longhorns definitely be safe at 10-2? Almost certainly, yes. The CBS Sports CFP Forecaster projects a 2-loss Longhorns team with a 100% chance of making the playoff.
The cumulative value of Texas' 10 wins would be significantly better than the overall value of Vanderbilt's 10 wins from last season. The Commodores had no victories over teams that finished in the top 25 of the final CFP rankings. If Texas finishes 10-2, it will almost certainly have multiple victories over teams ranked by the CFP committee. There would be no doubt about the Longhorns' CFP candidacy at 10-2.
Immediate resume impact
Texas entered Week 6 with a commanding lead in a resume ranking based on the CBS Sports 138. It won't be falling far in that metric after taking a neutral-site loss against an Oklahoma team that will likely rank inside the top 40 of next week's CBS Sports 138.
Because of their win over the Buckeyes and subsequent road win over Tennessee in Week 4, the Longhorns have some gold-plating on their resume that few others can match. In fact, Texas will almost certainly still have a top-5 resume after all Week 6 results are factored in.
Additionally, there is beauty for the Longhorns in the challenging path they still face. If they happen, losses against the likes of No. 9 Ole Miss, No. 17 Mississippi State, No. 14 Missouri or No. 14 LSU won't be resume wreckers.
Strongest three-loss contender
At 9-3, there would be more complications, but there would still be a good path for the Longhorns. If every SEC team finished 9-3, only Oklahoma would rank ahead of Texas in resume score at season's end. And it would be a shock if the Sooners (3-2, 1-1 SEC) arrived at Selection Sunday with just three losses.
Where things could get interesting for the CFP selection committee is if they are forced to compare a three-loss Texas team to a two-loss Big Ten team or a two-loss SEC team that played a significantly weaker schedule.
Based on where the national landscape stood entering Week 6, a three-loss Texas team would slot ahead of potential two-loss Big Ten teams such as UCLA, Indiana, Iowa, Nebraska, Wisconsin and Northwestern in a meritocratic resume ranking.
Ohio State and Oregon, with two losses, would rank slightly higher than a three-loss Texas in resume score.
Based on where things stand in mid-October, a 9-3 Longhorns team would also have a good case if compared against potential two-loss SEC Alabama, Tennessee and Georgia simply because of the disparity in schedule strength between those teams.
The SEC's move to a 9-game league schedule makes life harder for the league's teams, but it gives those like Texas with ammo to use. With the foundation of a great resume already in place and plenty of meaningful opposition remaining, Texas can exhale as it comes out of Week 6. Saturday went off track, but the season hasn't been derailed.
