Can you hear that? That's the sound of the tide turning for The Six Pack! It felt good to post a 4-2 record last week because we really needed it. We're still under .500 on the season and have quite the sports betting hole out of which to dig, but last week felt like the first time this season when we not only had a strong read of the situation in this column, but we weren't repeatedly punched in the face by bad luck.
I can't help but believe we're going to win every single bet we make for the rest of the season.
All college football betting odds below provided via BetMGM | Fanatics | DraftKings
Games of the Week
No. 5 Georgia at No. 1 Texas: I took the under in last week's game between Ohio State and Oregon, and it was quickly made clear that would not be a winner. I then took a hard think about what I was seeing. Earlier in the season, we saw a bunch of points scored in Georgia's game against Alabama, too. And you know what? There seem to be a lot of high-scoring games between top teams these days -- far more than usual.
So I dug into the numbers, and the feeling has support. Going back to the 2019 season, there have been 30 games played between teams ranked in the top five of the AP Top 25 poll. The over in those games is 17-11-2. Now, trends are one thing, but they don't mean much without there being a reason for their existence, and I think I know what it might be.
You can't be elite in college football these days without an explosive, dangerous offense. Being great on both sides of the ball is wonderful, but you don't see many teams reaching the College Football Playoff with a terrible offense and lights-out defense. And no matter how good a defense is, it can only do so much to slow down well-executed offense.
I think we'll see a similar story play out in Texas on Saturday night. The Longhorns' offense is one of the best in the country, and while it's had a few rough moments, Georgia's has proven to be dangerous as well when clicking. Plus, Georgia's defense has not played at the same level this season that we're used to, and while Texas' defensive numbers are incredible, what's the best offense Texas has faced? Michigan? Oklahoma? ULM? That total is starting to look a little low, isn't it? The Pick: Over 55.5 (-110) via BetMGM
No. 7 Alabama at No. 11 Tennessee: We will not be applying the same over principle here, but this is still a very interesting game. Tennessee has not performed as I expected. I knew the defense would be good, but the offense has been one-dimensional. Nico Iamaleava has not lived up to my expectations, and the offensive line has been sub-par. But I also get the sense this Volunteers offense isn't far from firing on all cylinders and having a big day. I wonder if it could be this week.
Alabama's defensive numbers are strong overall, but we all remember what happened to this unit in the second half against Georgia. I wouldn't be shocked to see Tennessee find a similar level of success. Then there's the offense, which has been too reliant on Jalen Milroe for my liking. Milroe took a lot of hits last week against South Carolina, and I worry about him wearing down as the season progresses. Also, the last time Alabama went on the road, it lost to Vanderbilt; and no offense to a wonderful Vandy crowd that night, but the environment at Neyland Stadium should be a bit different and more difficult to overcome. I don't have a ton of confidence in either one of these two right now, so I'm taking the points with the home team and seeing what happens. The Pick: Tennessee +3 (-105) via Fanatics
Lock of the Week
New Mexico at Utah State: I haven't included it in the column every week because I try to stick to more straightforward bets here, but Utah State has been an ATM for me this season. It's terrible defensively, and betting the team totals of its opponents has been very profitable. As has doing the same for the teams New Mexico has played. There's a reason the total for this game is as high as it is: these defenses stink.
But we're betting the under anyway. Totals in the 70s weren't all that uncommon two years ago, but we rarely see them now, and there's a reason for it. Recent changes to clock rules have led to fewer possessions in games, which has led to lower-scoring games overall. Yes, we still see the occasional 45-42 game, but nearly everything needs to go right for that to happen in the modern environment. How often does that happen in college football? The Pick: Under 78.5 (-110) via BetMGM
Underdog of the Week
Nebraska at No. 16 Indiana: I've long made a point to say how difficult it is for any college football team to get through a 12-game regular season without a loss. When you combine the travel, schoolwork and everything else that goes into the sport (including teams full of 18-24-year-old men who don't always think clearly), maintaining perfection week in and week out is nearly impossible. The teams that do it are often the most talented teams that can show up and beat others when they aren't at their best.
When you aren't one of those teams, it's only a matter of time before you lose. Well, Indiana, I'm sorry, but it's only a matter of time before you lose. Maybe it's not this week! You can beat Nebraska, but this spread strikes me as being a little too large. particularly when I look at the size advantage Nebraska has at its receiver and tight end positions against your secondary. The Pick: Nebraska +6.5 (-105) via BetMGM
Explosive Offenses of the Week
Iowa at Michigan State: I mentioned earlier that betting the team totals of Utah State's opponents has been an ATM in 2024, but you know what else has been? The over in Iowa games. I know, it's a sentence that seemingly shouldn't make any sense, but the truth is the truth. Iowa has played six games this year and the over is 5-1 as those matchups are finishing an average of 7.58 points over the total.
Yet, here we are with Iowa playing another game with a total set in the low 40s. Listen, the passing attack is still poor, but Kaleb Johnson and this Iowa rushing offense are ripping off chunk play after chunk play. It should continue against Michigan State. Also, Michigan State quarterback Aidan Chiles puts the football in dangerous spots far too often, which is a recipe for disaster against Iowa. The Hawkeyes could easily add points on defense here, too. The Pick: Over 40.5 (-108) via DraftKings
Binturong of the Week
Arizona State at Cincinnati: We made money taking Arizona State last weekend against the Zombie Utes, but we're going the other way this week. Arizona State quarterback Sam Leavitt suffered an injury in that win and won't play this week. That's bad news for the Sun Devils because I consider the downgrade from Leavitt to Jeff Sims to be considerable. Without Leavitt, Arizona State will have to lean on an option rushing attack with Sims and Cam Skattebo. It could be effective, but the true vulnerability of the Cincinnati defense has been in the air.
Where the Bearcats excel is in the red zone. Their red zone efficiency of 35.3% ranks fifth nationally, and the 3.53 points they're allowing on red zone possessions ranks 13th. I don't know how many drives Arizona State will finish with Cincinnati loading the box and not worrying about Sims' arm. Finally, the Cincinnati defense has done an excellent job forcing turnovers this year, and Jeff Sims has turned the ball over a lot during his career. The Pick: Cincinnati -5 (-110) via DraftKings
| Bets | Last Week | Season | Units |
|---|---|---|---|
Games of the Week | 1-1 | 8-6 | +0.49 |
Lock of the Week | 1-0 | 4-3 | +0.68 |
Overall | 4-2 | 20-22 | -4.06 |
SportsLine's proven computer model is calling for five outright upsets in Week 8 of college football. Visit SportsLine now to see them all, plus get spread picks for every game from the model that simulates each game 10,000 times.
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