Is there a hotter college football betting column in the universe than The Six Pack? Maybe! I don't know. I'm not reading every college football betting column in the universe. I don't have the time, nor do I have the need to because, again, we're red-hot right now.
We went 5-1 last week to follow up on the 5-1 performance a week before. That means The Six Pack has gone 17-6-1 over the last four weeks. If a country had simply invested its entire economy into The Six Pack a month ago, it would be a global superpower by now. Why didn't it? I don't know, maybe it did. I'm not a global economy wiz or anything. I'm just a guy on a heater who can do no wrong right now.
Let's not question it.
Odds via SportsLine consensus.
Games of the Week
No. 3 Michigan at No. 10 Penn State: We know Michigan is good, but we don't know how good yet because this will be the first time it's faced a ranked opponent since losing to TCU in the College Football Playoff last year. My inkling is that, weak schedule or not, these Wolverines are pretty good. They've been dominant on both sides of the ball all year. Also, while we have unanswered questions about the Wolverines, we have plenty of answers involving the Nittany Lions. James Franklin's struggles against Ohio State, Michigan and top-10 teams at Penn State are well-documented, but he's done much better against the spread. While Penn State is 4-15 in those games straight up, it's 9-10 overall (5-4 at home) against the spread.
The problem is, while Penn State's defense this season is phenomenal and will present challenges that Michigan hasn't seen yet, I can't shake what I saw from Penn State's offense against Ohio State. Quarterback Drew Allar was under fire all day, and while he didn't turn the ball over when pressured, he looked hopeless at times. Penn State lacks the big-time playmaker to bail him out of trouble. That's why the Nittany Lions rank No. 120 nationally in explosive play rate.
This is a particular problem when facing Michigan. The Wolverines defense has been so good this year that it is yet to face a first-and-goal situation. Even more ridiculous, the average touchdown scored against the Wolverines this year has been from 44.3 yards away. You only score touchdowns against Michigan with explosive plays that result in either a mistake from Michigan or a great play from somebody on your offense. To this point, Penn State hasn't shown the latter, and it'll be hard to cover this spread relying on the former. Pick: Michigan -4 (-110)
No. 9 Ole Miss at No. 2 Georgia: I'm not a popular figure among Ole Miss fans this season. In short, I don't think the Rebels are as good as their 8-1 record suggests. When I look at Ole Miss, I see an 8-1 team that's played more like a 6-3 team that found itself on the right end of a couple of coin-flip situations. In other words, I think the Rebels are good, not great. Rebels fans think that means I hate their team. I don't.
But I also don't like their chances against Georgia (I'm sure that'll help smooth things over). I just mentioned James Franklin's bad history against Ohio State and Michigan -- well, it's not as if Lane Kiffin has an excellent track record against top-10 teams himself. Anyway, that's not my concern here. Ole Miss is equipped to move the ball against Georgia better than most teams, but can it get stops? If so, how many?
The Ole Miss defense isn't bad, but it's not much better than average, either. It rates poorly at forcing three-and-outs and negative plays, and its red zone defense ranks among the bottom of the SEC in touchdown percentage. Georgia's offense has reached the red zone on 41.96% of its possessions this year. That's the third-highest rate in the country; however, Ole Miss is the highest at 42.29%! In the end, I have a lot more faith in Georgia's defense, which makes it extremely difficult to believe the Rebels can go on the road and stay within single digits. Pick: Georgia -10.5 (-110)
Lock of the Week
No. 15 Oklahoma State at UCF: Every season, the market can be a little slow in adjusting to teams that are playing much better now than they were in September. We've taken advantage of this with Arizona in recent weeks, and this week we're looking to do the same with Oklahoma State. This Cowboys team is not the same squad that lost to South Alabama and Iowa State earlier this season. It's found its QB in Alan Bowman and its most valuable player in RB Ollie Gordon. The Pokes have their winning formula, and it should work against UCF.
Have you seen how things have gone for the Knights in their first Big 12 season? Missing QB John Rhys Plumlee for a portion of the season hasn't helped, but the primary reason UCF is 1-5 in Big 12 play is because it has no answer defensively. In six Big 12 games, UCF has allowed 38.2 points per game. That's the worst in the league, and a 50.3% defensive success rate (also worst in the league) suggests it's not a fluke. The only Big 12 team the Knights have kept below 31 points this season is Cincinnati, a fellow Big 12 newcomer. Even Baylor put up 36 points on the Knights in Orlando and Baylor stinks! Pick: Oklahoma State -2.5 (-110)
Underdog of the Week
Auburn at Arkansas: I understand why Arkansas is favored here. It's a home game and Auburn isn't some juggernaut. The Tigers are only 5-4 on the year and 2-4 in the SEC. That said, the wrong team is favored here because Auburn is better than Arkansas. Don't let last week's Arkansas win over the Gators fool you. That result had much more to do with what the Gators were missing on defense than the Hogs.
Also, you never want to bet Arkansas as a favorite! The team's specialty is keeping games close when it has no business doing so and then losing. That's what it did against LSU, Texas A&M, Ole Miss and Alabama. When favored, it lost 7-3 at home to Mississippi State. This season, Arkansas is 1-3 ATS as favorites with two outright losses. The only two games the Hogs have won as favorites were against Western Carolina and a Kent State team that would probably lose to Western Carolina. Pick: Auburn +2.5 (-105)
Under of the Week
Northwestern at Wisconsin: I remain high on Wisconsin's future under coach Luke Fickell, but the Badgers are in a bad spot right now. There's a chance QB Tanner Mordecai will return to action this weekend, but I don't know how much it'll matter if he does. RB Braelon Allen didn't play in last week's loss against Indiana due to injury, and receiver Chimere Dike also missed the game. Their statuses for this week against Northwestern remain up in the air. While Allen's the more significant loss of the two, both have value since Dike is Wisconsin's primary deep threat in the passing game.
If they don't play, the Wisconsin offense will again struggle to move the ball. Then there's the Northwestern offense, which struggles to move the ball even at 100%. If you watched its Week 10 loss to Iowa at Wrigley Field, first of all, my condolences. But you know what I'm talking about. If this game goes over the total, it's only because one of these teams goes off for 31 points or more. While possible, it's not a likely outcome. Pick: Under 42.5 (-110)
Birds of the Week
Rice at UTSA: Don't be surprised if this line moves before Saturday. Rice QB JT Daniels suffered a concussion last week in the loss to SMU and is considered doubtful for this game. If Daniels isn't cleared to play, that's a big blow to Rice's chances of keeping this game competitive. Chase Jenkins replaced Daniels last week and would likely start in his place, but the true freshman has minimal experience and asking him to start on the road in an environment like the Alamodome is rough.
He'll be facing a UTSA team flying well below the radar despite being 5-0 in conference play. The Roadrunners got off to a 1-3 start this season with an injured Frank Harris but have been a completely different team in conference play. Not only are they 5-0, but they've won their five games by an average of 16.8 points. Pick: UTSA -14 (-115)
| Bets | Last Week | Season | Units |
|---|---|---|---|
Games of the Week | 1-1 | 11-10-1 | +0.00 |
Lock of the Week | 1-0 | 7-4 | +2.60 |
Overall | 5-1 | 39-24-1 | 12.60 |
Which college football picks can you make with confidence in Week 11, and which underdogs will win outright? Visit SportsLine to see which teams will win and cover the spread -- all from a proven computer model that has returned well over $2,000 in profit over the past seven-plus seasons -- and find out.
