It has not been the best start for The Six Pack. After treading water for the first two Saturdays, we had a losing record in Week 2. However, it wasn't all bad; the Kansas Jayhawks came through to hand us our first Lock of the Week winner this year, so that felt good. When in trouble, you can always count on the football powerhouse that is Kansas.
Of course, while I say that with my tongue planted firmly within my cheek, there's plenty of truth in it. Teams like Kansas are often undervalued on the market, particularly early in the season when sportsbooks might still be giving a little too much respect to past performance and not enough to what we're seeing now.
I'm looking to exploit that in a few of my picks this week. All odds via Caesars Sportsbook.
Games of the Week
No. 13 Miami at No. 24 Texas A&M: Jimbo Fisher may want to consider sending Kirk Ferentz a thank you note. If not for the comical inadequacy of the Iowa offense, more people would be talking about how anemic the Aggies offense has been. We're talking about a Texas A&M offense that managed only 186 yards and 14 points against an Appalachian State defense that gave up 567 yards and 63 points against North Carolina only a week earlier. Unless the Mountaineers imported an entirely new defense in the week between those games, the Aggies have far more to worry about than the upset. If that offense doesn't figure things out, there will be plenty more losses ahead.
One of them could be this weekend against Miami. The Hurricanes have looked tremendous on offense so far, but considering the competition, it's hard to put much faith in the numbers. So we have two offenses we don't know much about against two defenses that have given far more reason to trust them. There's a chance the Hurricanes go to College Station and pull off the upset, but there's also a chance the Aggies get their act together and rebound from an abysmal performance. Whatever happens, I'm not expecting many points to be scored. Texas A&M 23, Miami 20 | Under 44.5
No. 22 Penn State at Auburn: In Week 1, Utah traveled to Gainesville to take on Florida as road favorites. We picked Florida as our Upset of the Week in The Six Pack for a simple reason: you should probably bet the SEC team whenever you can get it as a home underdog in a nonconference game. History suggests the conference has done pretty well in nonconference games. Well, not surprisingly, Florida beat Utah, and now here we are two weeks later with Penn State traveling to Auburn as a 3-point favorite.
To be clear, I do not think Penn State is as good as Utah, nor do I believe Auburn is as good as Florida. That doesn't mean I'm willing to trust a Penn State team that looked shaky in a road game against Purdue in Week 0 to have an easy time at Jordan-Hare. I don't see either of these teams being able to pull too far away from the other, so give me the Auburn and the points. Auburn 24, Penn State 23 | Auburn +3
Lock of the Week
Kansas at Houston: We're going back to the Kansas well, baby! The Jayhawks are a team the power ratings haven't caught onto yet. It was the case last week, and it's the case again this week against Houston. It's understandable, seeing as Houston is considered one of the best Group of Five teams in the country and Kansas is, well, Kansas. Do not be fooled, though. This could prove to be a nightmare matchup for the Cougars.
Kansas has one of the most explosive offenses in the nation, ranking 10th at 17.5%. Its explosive rush rate of 16.7% ranks sixth. Houston struggled to get past UTSA in its opener and lost to Texas Tech last week primarily because it couldn't stop the run. The Cougars defense ranks 117th nationally in success rate against the run and 104th in the rate of explosive runs it's allowing. I don't know if the Jayhawks will pull off a road upset for the second straight week, but they're an extremely difficult matchup for this Houston defense and should make this uncomfortable. Houston 35, Kansas 31 | Kansas +9
Under of the Week
Nevada at Iowa: Should we blindly bet Iowa unders until proven otherwise? I think so! I already mentioned how terrible Iowa has been, but to drive the point home with fancy numbers, the Hawkeyes offense ranks 130th (of 131) in success rate, 131st in points per possession, 131st in EPA per play, and 1,000,000th in vibes. That said, I expect it to play better this week, but only because Nevada isn't some stalwart defensively. Though, who knows? Maybe playing Iowa will fix Nevada's defensive numbers.
Anyway, the reason I like this under isn't just that Iowa's offense is awful. Nevada's offense is awful, too, and it's going against an Iowa defense that is still quite good. All those fancy stats I mentioned with the Iowa offense? Nevada doesn't rank much better in any of them, and the good parts all stem from last week's 41 points against Incarnate Word (which scored 55, by the way). Iowa 27, Nevada 3 | Under 39
State Champion of the Week
Old Dominion at Virginia: Virginia is another team the ratings haven't caught onto, but the market looks like it has. Remember last season when the Cavaliers scored 34.6 points per game and Brennan Armstrong was on the verge of setting all-time ACC passing records? That offense no longer exists. Robert Anae, Virginia's offensive coordinator last year, took that offense with him to Syracuse. None of that means Tony Elliott and Des Kitchings won't get it figured out, but the Cavs are struggling badly.
Virginia ranks 114th in points per drive, 105th in success rate, and 110th in EPA per snap. Its offensive line is a big reason; it hasn't been able to protect Armstrong (UVA ranks 131st in pressure allowed) or open holes in the run game. I don't think Old Dominion pulls off the upset here like it did against Virginia Tech to become Virginia State Champion, but I can't trust an offense as bad as Virginia's to cover this spread right now. Virginia 27, Old Dominion 20 | Old Dominion +9
Upset of the Week
Vanderbilt at Northern Illinois: Remember how I was saying to take the SEC team as a home dog in a nonconference game? Considering my feelings on that, how do you think I feel about an SEC team being an underdog to a MAC team? I'm not going to argue that Vanderbilt is a powerhouse simply because it's in the SEC, but it's a better team than the market realizes. The offense, with Mike Wright at QB, is legit. I don't know that the Commodores will put up 63 points on the Huskies like they did to Hawaii, but that's more because of how NIU plays than its defense.
The Huskies move slowly on offense and limit possessions. It's why they're involved in so many one-score games. However, when the defense has been on the field, it hasn't done a good job of stopping teams. The Huskies rank 93rd in defensive success rate and 119th in points allowed per drive. Do not overthink this one. Vanderbilt 31, Northern Illinois 23 | Vanderbilt (+115)
| Bets | Last Week | Season | Units |
|---|---|---|---|
Games of the Week | 0-2 | 1-4 | -3.4 |
Lock of the Week | 1-0 | 1-2 | -1.2 |
Overall | 2-4 | 7-9 | -2.32 |
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