Tom Fornelli's College Football Power Ratings: Ole Miss drops out of top 12 after Lane Kiffin departure
The Rebels still deserve to be in the College Football Playoff, but Kiffin's decision affects their power rating
By
Tom Fornelli
•
6 min read
It has been an awkward week in college football, and my own power ratings are no exception. Maybe you've heard that Ole Miss coach Lane Kiffin -- on the precipice of taking his program to the College Football Playoff for the first time and fresh off the first 11-win regular season in school history -- has left to take over at LSU.
Pretty big deal! One that has sparked plenty of debate, some of it heated. It's another move that supposedly shows the sport is in a bad place, blah, blah, blah, etc., and so on. There are immediate ramifications to the decision that we still don't know. How will the College Football Playoff view Ole Miss now that Kiffin is gone? Will the committee punish the Rebels in the rankings, possibly pushing them out of a first-round home game? Will they remove Ole Miss from the field entirely?
I don't know. I hope not. It would be an incredible disservice to the sport to deny a team that earned its place because of a selfish decision (you can argue right or wrong until the cows come home, but there's no question Kiffin put himself ahead of the team) by its coach. I have no interest in seeing another Florida State situation.
That said, the power ratings aren't the playoff. Power ratings evaluate what a team will do going forward, and the coach matters. Typically, when we adjust ratings for coaching changes this time of year, it's for teams far outside the playoff picture ahead of their bowl games. Sometimes it's for a Group of Five coach moving up.
I've never had to adjust a playoff team's rating for its head coach leaving. So how does Kiffin's exit affect the Rebels here? Well, there's one team from last week's rankings that's no longer in our top 12: Ole Miss.
But, again, this is where I remind you that power ratings are a tool to project future performance. When it comes to putting together a playoff field, results that have actually happened should matter -- not hypothetical ones.
Fornelli Power Ratings
| 1 |  |
| Congratulations to Ryan Day and the Buckeyes for getting that Michigan monkey off their backs. I will admit, I was worried when Ohio State turtled up a bit after Julian Sayin's early interception. They started the game aggressively on offense and then began handing off and kicking short field goals. The decision to bring the big guns back out ended the game pretty quickly. Last Week: 1 | Title Odds: (+155) | |
| 2 |  |
| Can you imagine what it's like to be an Indiana fan these days? You've experienced some success in recent years, but it wasn't anything that felt real. Now you're suddenly one of the top programs in the country, just went 12-0, and are heading to the Big Ten Championship (in Indianapolis, by the way) to face Ohio State with a conference title and the No. 1 seed in the playoffs on the line. Oh, and your QB might win the Heisman. It has to feel like some kind of fever dream. Last Week: 2 | Title Odds: (+460) | |
| 3 |  |
| You have to give Dan Lanning and the Oregon coaching staff so much credit. This is a team that finished the regular season with three difficult games in November, and had to play in all of them while missing key starters. Yet they still won all four games and went about doing so in different ways. If this team is fully healthy by the first round, it might make far more noise than some people realize. Last Week: 3 | Title Odds: (+1000) | |
| 4 |  |
| Did you see Notre Dame throwing downfield in the fourth quarter while ahead 42-13? I wrote in late September that Marcus Freeman "knew the score" and that his team would have to win impressively the rest of the year, and received a lot of angry messages from Notre Dame fans because of it. "Marcus Freeman would never do such a thing!" Yes he would, yes he has, and yes he should've. Notre Dame has no automatic entry into the playoff! The only way it can get there is to impress a room full of people! Running it up is required! Last Week: 4 | Title Odds: (+1000) | |
| 5 |  |
| Texas Tech has a chance to earn a first-round bye this weekend. The formula is pretty simple. If the Red Raiders beat BYU again and Georgia beats Alabama in the SEC Championship, there's a very real chance the Red Raiders get the No. 4 seed and bye that comes with it. However, if Alabama wins, I don't see the committee "punishing" Georgia for losing in a conference championship game. Not with only two losses. Alabama would have three, which is different. Last Week: 7 | Title Odds: (+1100) | |
| 6 |  |
| As I just said, Georgia will likely have a bye regardless of what happens in Atlanta. As for why it drops a spot in the ratings, the Dawgs beat Georgia Tech last week, but their performance wasn't great. In fact, Tech was the better team in a few areas on Friday, and Georgia's metrics worsened, allowing it to slip behind Texas Tech. Last Week: 5 | Title Odds: (+750) | |
| 7 |  |
| Alabama is in a similar spot to Georgia. Offensively, this team has been heading in the wrong direction for about a month now. Ty Simpson and the passing attack had overcome the lack of a ground game all year, but they haven't been as consistent in doing so lately. Still a very good team -- and one that deserves a bye if it beats Georgia -- but not a team I'm overly confident in making a deep playoff run at the moment. Last Week: 6 | Title Odds: (+1400) | |
| 8 |  |
| If you've paid attention to these power ratings all season, then you shouldn't have been too surprised by A&M's loss to Texas on Friday night. They were No. 8 here last week, too! While they've been top-three in the human polls, they've never reached those same heights in our ratings. Last Week: 8 | Title Odds: (+1200) | |
| 9 |  |
| Utah had a narrow path to the Big 12 Championship last week, and while it took care of its own business, it didn't get all the help it needed. It's hard to feel bad for the Utes, though. They're a very good team whose two losses came against the teams they needed to beat: BYU and Texas Tech. They also received no help from Arizona State or Cincinnati , both of whom limped to the finish line in November. Last Week: 9 | Title Odds: (+100000) | |
| 10 |  |
| Miami has done everything it needed to do to convince the committee to change its mind. It's not only won games, but won them decisively while looking to be superior to their opposition. In other words, the Canes have played like a playoff team. Unfortunately, the Canes didn't get any of the results elsewhere that would've helped a lot. That doesn't mean they won't get in, but my feeling is that the final spot will be between Notre Dame and BYU. Not saying it's right, but it's the reality of the situation. Last Week: 11 | Title Odds: (+15000) | |
| 11 |  |
| I angered a lot of Oklahoma fans (and staffers) with this tweet on Saturday . It was a joke, but I get it. Tensions are high this time of year! For clarity, there's no way Oklahoma can be left out of the field or should be left out. Of all the 10-2 teams fighting for a spot, none has a better case than Oklahoma. That said, that doesn't mean Oklahoma is an enjoyable team to watch. I call it Crimson & Cream Iowa with love, but that offense is an eyesore. Last Week: 12 | Title Odds: (+7500) | |
| 12 |  |
| Welcome to our top 12, Vandy! The Dores are another 10-2 team hoping to get some love from the committee, but are highly likely to find themselves left out. When your strongest argument is good losses without a great win to hang your hat on, your argument won't get you far enough. You might still end up with a Heisman to add to the trophy case, though. Last Week: Not Ranked | Title Odds: (+100000) | |
Fell outside top 12: Ole Miss
