Oregon handles USC: No. 7 Ducks take huge step toward College Football Playoff with won over No. 15 Trojans

Oregon now owns a 90% chance of making the playoff, according to CBS Sports' statistical modeling. Beating USC was pivotal to the Ducks' chances of making a return trip to the CFP because it gave them a much-needed quality win. Outside of Saturday's win over the Trojans, Oregon's best victory is a narrow 2-point victory against an Iowa team in the Big Ten's middle tier. A win would have made USC (8-3, 6-2 Big Ten) overwhelmingly likely to earn a spot in the 12-team field. But the loss dropped the Trojans out of the playoff hunt.

With Gary Bryant Jr. and Dakorien Moore out again due to injury, Malik Benson assumed a significant playmaking role for Oregon. The ex-Alabama and Florida State speedster produced his best game of the season in a critical spot. His four catches for 67 yards were huge, but his 85-yard punt return for a touchdown in the second quarter changed the game's entire complexion. Returning punts is a relatively new role for Benson, but he looked like a natural when he fielded a line drive kick, turned up the left sideline and left USC's coverage team in the dust.

USC fancies itself as one of college football's top brands, but the Trojans are going to be on the outside looking in at the CFP once again. Beating rival UCLA next week and winning a bowl would get USC back to 10 wins and mark considerable progress from last year's 7-6 mark. But at some point, head coach Lincoln Riley will need to break through for a victory that shows the Trojans should be taken seriously on the national stage. Had the CFP featured 12 teams in 2022, the Trojans would have made it in Riley's first season. But the program has fallen off since an 11-1 start to that season. Saturday offered a chance to turn heads, but the Trojans too flawed defensively to reach the Big Ten's highest tier.

Oregon's defense came up with a fourth-down stop to likely secure the outcome. The Trojans marched into Ducks territory and faced a fourth-and-10 while trailing 42-27 with 2:18 remaining. Jayden Maiava's pass over the middle was intended for Makai Lemon but was deflected and fluttered to the turf well behind Lemon. With USC down to a single timeout, that should just about do it. The Trojans put up a fight, but this will mark the end of their CFP hopes.

5:30 4Q: Oregon 42, USC 27

Noah Whittington surged up the middle for a 9-yard touchdown run with 5:30 remaining to cap a six-minute touchdown march to put the Ducks ahead 42-27. He is one of three Oregon players to score rushing touchdowns in this game. That was a soul-sucking series for USC, which couldn't get push up front against the injury-altered Oregon offensive line.

11:32 4Q: Oregon 35, USC 27

USC has proven itself to be a grittier and more resilient team this season. That is proving true once again as the Trojans have drawn within eight points with plenty of time still remaining. Jayden Maiava hit Lake McRee for a 9-yard touchdown to cap a quick scoring drive. Lincoln Riley went for a 2-point conversion. Though it failed, that was an impressive sequence from USC, which has refused to quit in the face of road adversity.

Oregon couldn't get out of its own way to begin the fourth quarter. Consecutive negative plays sabotaged a series and forced the Ducks to kick it away. USC is taking over in good field position with plenty of time to get back into the game. The Trojans' defense hasn't been great, but it's done enough to give USC a shot in this game, Remember, one of Oregon's touchdowns came on a punt return from Malik Benson.

End 3Q: Oregon 35, USC 21

The first sack of the day by either team was a big one, as Oregon's Matayo Uiagalelei slung Jayden Maiava down and forced a fumble. The Trojans fell on it, but they had no choice but to punt on fourth-and-16 from their own territory.  As the fourth quarter downs, the Ducks are well-positioned to potentially inflict a knockout blow after USC made things interesting in the third quarter. Considering the number of injuries along both offensive lines, it's surprising the quarterbacks haven't been under more pressure.

2:13 3Q: Oregon 35, USC 21

No wide receivers? No problem. Dante Moore just hit tight end Kenyon Sadiq for his second touchdown of the day as Oregon finished off a big response drive with a 28-yard touchdown. Dante Moore layered it nicely over the middle, and Sadiq went up to get it, absorbing some contact in the process. This is Sadiq's second 2-touchdown game of the season.

5:48 3Q: Oregon 28, USC 21

USC cashed in the interception with a Jayden Maiava touchdown pass to Makai Lemon. He was lined up in the slot and reeled in a little out route for the score. Impressive answer from the Trojans, who had their backs against the wall down 28-14. The Kennedy Urlacher interception could go down as the play that changed this game — and USC's season — if the Trojans are able to complete the comeback.

Put a pin in USC linebacker Kennedy Urlacher's interception. It was a poor decision by Dante Moore to throw over the middle into traffic, and it resulted in the game-changing play the defense desperately needed. Now the onus is on the USC offense to rediscover the high gear it found in the first half.

Early 3Q: Oregon 28, USC 14

Facing a fourth-and-10 from Oregon's 46-yard line, Lincoln Riley opted to play it bold and go for it. Why not, right? This is a must-win game for USC's playoff hopes, and with a struggling defense, there is little hope to be found in playing things cautiously. Ultimately, it didn't work out. Jayden Maiava was intercepted by Jadon Canady, returning the football to Oregon. The Trojans forced a turnover on downs on the Ducks' first possession of the third quarter. But if USC wants to have any hope, it needs its defense to stack strong possessions, which it hasn't shown the ability to do yet.

USC's offense is doing its part in this top-15 showdown between College Football Playoff hopefuls. However, its defense and special teams have dropped the ball. If the Trojans are going to get back into the game, they'll need to get the same type of momentum-shifting plays from those units that Oregon used to build a 14-point halftime lead. Whether it's a kick/punt return for a touchdown, a big interception or something of the like, the Trojans are going to need some big breaks. With USC struggling against the run defensively, the Ducks have a clear path to potentially putting this game away.

Half: Oregon 28, USC 14

Jayden Maiava found Tanook Hines for a 51-yard gain to get USC's two-minute drill started with a bang. But the Ducks' defense stiffened from there to force a 27-yard field goal attempt from Ryon Sayeri in the waning seconds of the first half. It clanged off the right upright to send the Trojans into the half empty-handed. That was a brutal end to the half for USC, which played well offensively for the most part.

Defense was another story for the Trojans, who surrendered touchdowns on three of Oregon's four possessions in the first half. They appeared to have created another stop until USC was called for leaping on a missed Oregon field goal attempt. That call resulted in new life for the Ducks, who capitalized by scoring a touchdown. Between that call and USC's missed field goal to end the half, that's a 10-point swing.

1:52 2Q: Oregon 28, USC 14

Oregon linebacker Bryce Boettcher took a direct snap in a unique formation and surged up the middle for a 1-yard touchdown run to cap a strange, penalty-filled sequence that results in Oregon taking a 14-point lead. That score puts a ton of pressure on USC's offense to produce puts in a 2-minute situation to close the first half. With Oregon getting the football to start the second half, the Trojans need to capitalize before the break.

Following Ify Obidegwu's interception, USC receiver Ja'Kobi Lane was called for an unsportsmanlike conduct penalty as he attempted to retrieve the football from Oregon's sideline. That was just the start of a penalty-filled sequence late in the first half. 

Malik Benson made a 30-yard grab to set Oregon up inside the USC 10-yard line. However, he was called for an unsportsmanlike conduct after taunting USC DB Marcelles Williams following the catch. That backed the Ducks up. Then a rare offensive facemask penalty on Ducks offensive lineman Alex Harkey backed Oregon up again. Eventually, the Ducks settled for a long field — only for USC to be called for a leaping violation on the kick, resulting in an automatic first down for Oregon. 

Following Malik Benson's punt return for a touchdown, issues have continued compounding for USC. First, a bad shotgun snap from the backup center put the Trojans in a third-and-long. Jayden Maiava was subsequently picked off. Now Oregon has great field position and a 7-point lead. The Ducks also get the football to start the third quarter. This is the danger zone for USC.

9:58 2Q: Oregon 21, USC 14

Oregon just got an 85-yard punt return touchdown from Malik Benson to surge ahead 21-14. It was a line drive kick, and Benson went untouched down the left sideline with it. Benson had just four career punt returns entering the day, but he looked like a veteran of the gig on that one as he used his breakaway speed to produce a huge special teams touchdown.

USC center Killian O'Connor is done for the day, per CBS sideline reporter Jenny Dell. That is just the latest blow for the Trojans' offensive line. It's been a series of shifts and injuries up front, and his loss will be a big one. The status of Oregon center Iapani Laloulu remains uncertain after he also went down with injury in the first quarter.

14:47 2Q: USC 14, Oregon 14

Lincoln Riley dipped into the bag of trick plays to open the second quarter. The result? A touchdown pass from receiver Makai Lemon to Tanook Hines, who made an awesome grab just inside the pylon. Lemon did a great job on the initial lateral from Jayden Maiava of selling the run before letting the ball fly before reaching the line of scrimmage. That capped an impressive response from the Trojans.

End 1Q: Oregon 14, USC 7

Oregon's offense started hot in the first quarter with a pair of touchdown drives. However, the Ducks' secondary is getting its biggest test of the season against a USC passing attack highlighted by star receivers Ja'Kobi Lane and Makai Lemon. Both have three receptions, and Jayden Maiava is off to an 8-of-12 start through the air. The Trojans are driving to start the second quarter after putting together an effective touchdown drive to begin the game. Given the poor start for USC's defense, the Trojans can ill-afford many empty possessions in this game.

Late 1Q: Oregon 14, USC 7

Oregon is having its way early on against USC's defense. Even after an injury to center Iapani Laloulu, the Ducks kept marching with a beautiful run/pass balance. The finisher was an 8-yard connection between Dante Moore and Kenyon Sadiq in the back of the end zone. With the Ducks dealing with a rash of receiver injuries, Sadiq was lined up in the slot. He took off over the middle and Moore found him to give the Ducks their first lead.

Oregon receiver Jeremiah McClellan is dealing with an apparent shoulder injury, which is bad news for a Ducks team already grappling with a depleted receiver corps. USC center Kilian O'Connor also went down on the Trojans' second possession with an injury. That's significant as Southern Cal is already grappling with a litany of injuries along the offensive line. Both offenses are being hit where it hurts early on.

Mid 1Q: Oregon 7, USC 7

Oregon saw USC's impressive opening touchdown drive and responded right back with one of its own. Malik Benson broke a 24-yard run to get things started before a quick-hit pass from Dante Moore to Jeremiah McClellan moved the Ducks into the red zone. Jordon Davison finished it off with an 11-yard touchdown run on a misdirection pitch play. USC's defense looked non-competitive in that series as Oregon OC Will Stein carved up the Trojans for a quick score to even things up.

9:54 1Q: USC 7, Oregon 0

Jayden Maiava is off to a hot start. He just connected with Makai Lemon in the flat for an 8-yard touchdown throw. Maiava threw a beautiful ball to Ja'Kobi Lane down the left sideline for a gain of 27 yards to keep USC from going three-and-out on its first possession. The play jumpstarted an excellent opening possession for the Trojans, who were also bailed out at one point by an illegal substitution penalty on the Ducks, which helped turn a third-and-7 into a third-and-2. That was a statement start from USC, which opted to take the football first after winning the coin toss.

Saturday's Big Ten clash between No. 15 USC and No. 7 Oregon on CBS (and streaming on Paramount+ Premium) is already shaping up to be a battle -- and injuries are adding up for both sides. According to CBS Sports' Matt Zenitz, the Ducks will be without two of their top playmakers at wide receiver: star freshman Dakorien Moore (knee) and Gary Bryant Jr. (ankle). The duo missed the previous two games with Malik Benson and tight end Kenyon Sadiq seeing an increase in targets as a result.

The Trojans aren't exactly in the clear either. Standout safety Bishop Fitzgerald, who is tied for an FBS-leading five interceptions, is expected to be out, per Zenitz. Fellow safety Kamari Ramsey and left tackle Elijah Paige are also doubtful, leaving USC with several key holes to fill on both sides of the ball in a game that has major College Football Playoff implications for both teams.

Oregon (+23.0) and USC (+16.5) also rank in the top 10 nationally in scoring margin. But the Trojans have struggled away from home, posting just a +2.0 average margin in true road games (32nd in the FBS). While Lincoln Riley has picked up two Big Ten road wins this season — at Nebraska and Purdue — he is only 2-6 in road games outside California since USC joined the conference last year.

Oregon (39.0 points per game) and USC (38.2) both boast top-10 scoring attacks. First-year starting quarterback Dante Moore has shown poise in key moments, but the Ducks lean on a deep backfield that averages 6.31 yards per carry against FBS opponents, best in the nation. For the Trojans, walk-on running back King Miller provides a spark, but the star remains wideout Makai Lemon, one of only three FBS players to reach 1,000 receiving yards this season.

Oregon would make the 12-team CFP bracket if it started today, but USC still has work to do at No. 13 in the committee's latest rankings. A win would give the Trojans a major résumé boost heading into their regular-season finale against crosstown rival UCLA. For the Ducks, a loss could be damaging — even with just two defeats — because they lack a win over any team currently in the CFP rankings.