USF: 3 reasons for optimism/3 reasons for pessimism

If college football experts judged South Florida on nonconference wins alone, the Bulls would likely be considered the top team in the Big East over the last five years. Since the start of the 2007 season, South Florida has wins over Florida State, Miami (Fla.), Auburn, Clemson and Notre Dame in nonconference games.

Inside the conference, however, the Bulls were shellacked by more than 30 points against previously 4-5 Rutgers (2008), dropped a close loss to a then-Connecticut team below .500 in the league (2009) and opened the Big East schedule with an inauspicious 44-17 defeat to unranked Pittsburgh last year. The loss to the Panthers was the first of four consecutive conferences losses that eliminated any chance the Bulls had of earning a spot in the BCS.

Coach Skip Holtz’s team will strive for more consistency in 2012.

Optimism –

Daniels better than ever

Senior QB B.J. Daniels is on pace to break the league’s all-time record for total yards. Daniels has slowly transformed from an athlete who can easily escape pressure to a sound decision-maker. Holtz points to several situations in 2011 when Daniels faced an oncoming rush and calmly spotted his hot read wide open. Like the rest of his team, though, Daniels' numbers were up-and-down last year. He sprinkled a 408-yard, 3 TD performance against Cincinnati with clunkers against Miami and Uconn. Expect to see a steadier Daniels in his senior season.

Solid receiving corps

Wide receiver Sterling Griffin is considered by many experts to be one of the most underrated receivers in FBS. The group as a whole may be one of the most underrated in the nation. Griffin bounced back from a dislocated ankle two years ago to finish with 43 catches and 3 TDs. Besides being stronger and more physical, Griffin has dramatically improved his knowledge of defenses according to Holtz. Griffin will be complemented by a group Holtz said could be his best receiving corps since he arrived at South Florida in 2010. Griffin will be joined by a trio of returnees in Deonte Welch, Andre Davis and Terrence Mitchell. The Bulls also add Chris Dunkley, a transfer from Florida and D’Vario Montgomery, a rangy receiver, who ranked 19th at his position in the Class of 2012 by recruiting guru Tom Lemming.

Opportunistic Defense

The defense was highly rated in 2011 finishing the season ranked 24th in efficiency, according to footballoutsiders.com and 21st against the run. The website projects the Bulls to rank 28th in defensive efficiency in the upcoming season. DE Ryne Giddins is menacing on the outside and the linebacker corps of DeDe Lattimore, Mike Lanaris, Sam Barrington and Mike Jeune might be the best in the conference. CB Kayvon Webster could be USF’s top defensive prospect for the NFL Draft.

Pessimism –

Crumbling under the pressure

As the 2011 season wore on, each loss for USF seemingly stung worse. The Bulls dropped three conference games by a combined 12 points and lost 6-3 to in-state rival Miami. USF will need to be better in crunch time, especially on the road in critical matchups against Louisville and Cincinnati.

Lack of depth

The Bulls need some newcomers to emerge on the front four. Giddins must receive some help on the other side or he will face constant double and triple teams throughout the season. Tevin Mins, a 6-3, 250-pound transfer from Navarro (Texas) Junior College may provide assistance. Mins opened his career at Texas. Senior DT Cory Grissom’s status is uncertain after he fractured his ankle in the spring. Sophomore DT Elkino Watson must build on a promising freshman season, while mammoth freshman DT James Hamilton (6-2, 330) must contribute right away. The Bulls ranked 32nd in first-quarter defensive efficiency, according to footballoutsiders.com, but just 60th in the fourth.

Challenging early schedule

Before September ends, USF will face three tests against Nevada, Rutgers and Florida State. The first two are challenging since Holtz’s team will travel nearly 3,000 miles to Reno and then will only have four days to prepare for the Scarlet Knights. If USF drops all three, the team could lack motivation for the remainder of the season. If the Bulls enter October with only one loss, they could contend for a league title.

For more up-to-the-minute news and analysis on the Big East, follow bloggers Evan Hilbert and Matt Rybaltowski@CBSBigEast.