The opening Saturday of the 2018 college football season concludes with a 10 p.m. ET matchup as New Mexico State hosts Wyoming. The Cowboys opened as 5.5-point favorites, with the line dropping to -4. The Over-Under for total points scored in this non-conference game is 44.5, down 1.5 from the opener. Before locking in your Wyoming vs. New Mexico State picks, you need to see what the SportsLine Projection Model is saying.
The advanced computer simulates every college football game 10,000 times. Last season it produced double-digit profitable weeks and closed the bowl season on a perfect 7-0 run. It's now returned $4,210 to $100 betters the last three years. The model also went a combined 16-10 on games involving these two teams in 2017.
Now, it has simulated Wyoming-New Mexico State 10,000 times to produce strong against the spread and Over-Under picks. We can tell you the computer is going with the Over, which hits in 58 percent of simulations. But it also says you can bank on one side of the spread almost 60 percent of the time, making it a must-back.
The model knows Wyoming went 8-5 last year, led by heralded QB Josh Allen, who went on to be drafted in the first round by the Buffalo Bills. The team announced on Monday that redshirt freshman Tyler Vander Waal will open the season under center.
The Cowboys will also have a new running back, as last year's top rusher, Trey Woods, was moved to defensive end this summer. But the offense returns its entire line and starting receivers, while its defense, which led the nation with 38 takeaways last year, has nine starters back.
Just because Wyoming is a veteran team doesn't mean it can cover a four-point spread. The Aggies are taking the independent route after being in the Sun Belt. They went 7-6 last year and are aiming for consecutive winning seasons for the first time in 50 years.
On Tuesday, the team named junior college transfer QB Matthew Romero as the starter for the opener. New Mexico State averaged 340 yards passing per game last year under QB Nick Jeanty, sixth-most nationally.
Defensively, defensive coordinator Frank Spaziani took one of the nation's worst units and turned into a more-than-respectable outfit. It totaled 43 sacks in 2017 (up from 11 in 2016) and 27 turnovers forced, most in the Sun Belt. The team will be without Cedric Wilcots, an All-Sun Belt DE last year, on Saturday due to academic reasons, but more than half of its starters are back as well.
Who wins the Wyoming-New Mexico State season opener? And which side of the spread hits in almost 60 percent of simulations? Visit SportsLine here to see which side of the spread you need to jump on Saturday, all from the proven computer model that ended last season on a perfect 7-0 streak.
