2009 outlooks: Chicago Cubs

When the Cubs secured the best record in the National League last season, winning their division by 7 1/2 games over the team that ultimately won the wild card (Milwaukee), most spectators forecasted a quick and decisive romp to the World Series. They had the best pitching staff, after all -- one led by ace Carlos Zambrano, who threw his first career no-hitter during the season, former closer Ryan Dempster, who finally capitalized on his potential at age 31, and newcomer Rich Harden, who managed to stay healthy long enough to look like the most dominant pitcher in baseball.

But the postseason didn't go according to plan, and instead of representing the NL in the Fall Classic, the Cubs found themselves back home following a first-round exit. After the disappointing finish for a franchise known mostly for its failures, the Cubs spent the offseason retooling, making subtle tweaks to their roster just to keep from regressing.

Gone is Mark DeRosa, the utility man-turned-second baseman whose career-high 21 home runs seemed like an impossiblity to reproduce. Taking his place is some combination of lefty Mike Fontenot, who showed impressive power in limited at-bats, and switch-hitter Aaron Miles, a slap hitter who hit a career-high .317 with the Cardinals last year. The two might end up in a straight platoon.

The Cubs also added some thump to the middle of their batting order, signing All-Star outfielder Milton Bradley, a player of enormous potential who can't seem to keep his head on straight or his body in shape. If he can stay healthy, he has the potential to lead the league in OPS, but he hasn't accumulated 500 at-bats in a season since 2004. If nothing else, he gives the Cubs a left-handed slugger to go along with right-handers Derrek Lee, Aramis Ramirez and Geovany Soto in the middle of the lineup, not to mention Alfonso Soriano, who technically bats leadoff but is a slugger through and through. Either Kosuke Fukudome, an on-base specialist who faded down the stretch of his first 162-game season, or Ryan Theriot, an overachiever with modest stolen-base potential, will join Soriano at the top of the lineup.

The real strength of this team lies in its starting rotation, where left-hander Ted Lilly, another innings eater with All-Star potential, joins right-handers Zambrano, Dempster and Harden. The battle for the fifth starter will most likely come down to rookie Jeff Samardzija, who thrived in a setup role part of last year, and left-hander Sean Marshall, with Chad Gaudin, acquired from the Athletics in the Harden deal last year, also in the mix. Any of those three would have Fantasy value on a clear-cut contender like the Cubs.

At closer, the Cubs will finally give lights-out setup man Carlos Marmol his shot for saves after letting free agent Kerry Wood walk, though they acquired former Marlins closer Kevin Gregg just to keep Marmol honest.

Harden could just as easily fall into the "potential bust" category, depending on where you have to draft him. Most likely, Fantasy owners will shy away from a pitcher so injury prone that he made only 38 starts over the last three seasons. Even last year, he made only 25, which hardly indicates a clean bill of health. Still, what he did with those 25 starts deserves just as much recognition. He led all starting pitchers in ERA (2.07) by nearly half a run and struck out more than 11 batters per nine innings, leading the major leagues in that category as well. If he can somehow defy the odds and make 30-plus starts, he might well rank as the No. 1 overall starting pitcher in Fantasy, and if you can get him in the middle rounds, the reward outweighs the risk.

The timing of this "potential bust" label might seem a little odd for a guy who had one of baseball's most memorable moments in 2008 when he threw a no-hitter, but take away that no-hitter and he posted a 6.67 ERA after the All-Star break. Always known as a somewhat wild, but overpowering pitcher, his strikeouts have decreased to the point that he hardly even qualifies as a strikeout pitcher anymore, whiffing 6.2 batters per nine innings. He could get away with walking 100 batters each year when he struck out 200, but as he gets more hittable, those walks become harder to ignore. The workhorse also showed signs of breaking down for the first time, missing a few starts in September with a sore elbow. You'll have to draft him as an ace -- or at least close to it -- but don't be surprised if you end up sitting him just as much as you start him.

You can't fully judge a guy on only 243 at-bats, but Fontenot posted some pretty impressive numbers for a middle infielder in his 243 at-bats last year. His nine home runs would translate to 22 in a full 600-at-bat season, and his .514 slugging percentage would have ranked third among second basemen, behind only Chase Utley and Ian Kinsler. Those numbers don't seem so fluky when you consider he has solid plate discipline and always hit for a decent average in the minors. Then again, if the Cubs expected him to produce numbers this good all along, he would have gotten a chance to start before age 28. Even now, he might not get that chance thanks to the somewhat misguided signing of Aaron Miles, but as a platoon player, he'd still make an impact in NL-only leagues. And if he can somehow finagle full-time duty, he might become a worthwhile starter in mixed leagues as well.

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