2009 outlooks: Colorado Rockies

So much for all that.

After their unexpected trip to the World Series in 2007, the Rockies continued reliance on a pitching staff as thin as the air around them brought them back to their familiar place as a below-.500 ballclub last year.

With their immediate future no longer so bright and rosy, the Rockies initiated a retooling effort this offseason, hoping to return to contention in a year or two rather than flailing in mediocrity year after year before submitting to a massive overhaul five years down the road.

Thus, they made the tough decision to trade Matt Holliday, their best player and the MVP of that World Series team, to give them payroll flexibility. They also lost speedster Willy Taveras and closer Brian Fuentes to free agency. The hope is that the continued improvement of their young talent, not to mention the infusion of more, will give them room to better themselves over the next few years, helping them avoid the standstill an overreliance on veterans might bring.

Then again, they didn't jettison all of their veterans. Garrett Atkins, despite his declining numbers, and Todd Helton, despite his recent back surgery, will continue to start at the corners of the infield, leaving Ian Stewart, a longtime top prospect who showed impressive power with his half season of work last year, to rot on the bench. He'll spell Helton from time to time, but he won't get enough at-bats -- at least not right away -- to matter in mixed leagues. Likewise, outfielders Ryan Spilborghs and Seth Smith will try to hold off high-upside prospects like Dexter Fowler and Carlos Gonzalez. Spilborghs and Smith have untapped potential of their own, though, and might just end up making the bigger Fantasy impact this season.

The Rockies at least have two up-and-comers already in place in catcher Chris Iannetta and shortstop Troy Tulowitzki, who will try to bounce back after an injury-plagued 2008. They also have some decent power options at second base in Clint Barmes and Jeff Baker. Iannetta and Tulowitzki could emerge as elite Fantasy performers before season's end.

But the Rockies always have an impressive lineup. This one doesn't really set them apart. No, for a team that plays half its ballgames in a stadium known for towering home runs and spacious outfield gaps, the pitching staff remains the perpetual red flag.

The Rockies actually don't have anything to worry about in their bullpen, where Huston Street, acquired in the Holliday deal, will try to fend off Manny Corpas for the closer role. And apart from that able duo, Taylor Buchholz gives the Rockies perhaps the most underrated setup man in baseball with his 2.17 ERA and 0.95 WHIP.

But the rotation -- oh, that cursed rotation -- still contributes more headaches than helping hands during the course of a Fantasy season. Aaron Cook actually made the All-Star team last year, but he came crashing back down to earth in the second half. Jeff Francis, the former ace, struggled with shoulder soreness last season and now faces the possiblity of season-ending exploratory surgery. Newcomer Jason Marquis provides below-average numbers at best. Ubaldo Jimenez looks like the only Fantasy-relevant starting pitcher in Colorado, and he walked more than 100 batters last year. Franklin Morales, a 23-year-old hard-throwing left-hander limited by back soreness last year, could provide another able arm, but he still has to win a job. He'll compete with Greg Smith, Greg Reynolds, Jason Hirsh and Jorge De La Rosa -- all of whom have some sleeper potential in NL-only leagues -- for the fifth spot in the rotation this spring, though another spot could open if Francis indeed has surgery.

Potential Breakout: Chris Iannetta, C

Sure, Iannetta made a name for himself in Fantasy last year when he shook off the disappointment of 2007 to show off some useful power potential. But some of the extenuating circumstances of his ascension made it go a bit underappreciated. First of all, he didn't enter the year as the starter, and even after his promotion, he continually lost at-bats to unworthy complement Yorvit Torrealba. Also, his final .264 batting average didn't do his hitting talents justice. He reached base 40 percent of the time, demonstrating a mastery of the strike zone rarely seen in a player so young. His walking ability should make him consistent, not to mention a fixture on the base paths in a ballpark known to give up a home run or two. For the year, he ranked second in OPS among catchers with 300 at-bats, behind only Brian McCann. As long as the Rockies don't treat him with kid gloves again, he'll emerge as an elite Fantasy catcher -- one every bit as good as McCann, Russell Martin, Joe Mauer and Geovany Soto.

Potential Bust: Garrett Atkins, 3B

Atkins has become the Michael Young of corner infielders. He emerged out of nowhere early in his career, exceeding every scout's expectations with a monster year, and even though he hasn't measured up to those numbers since, his accumulation of RBI and runs in a loaded lineup makes his downfall not so apparent to Fantasy owners. So let's set the record straight right now: Atkins' 2006, when he hit .329 with 29 home runs and 120 RBI, was a fluke. His numbers have dipped across the board in the two years since, to the point he hit .286 with a .780 OPS last year. A middle-of-the-order hitter shouldn't get away with having an OPS under .800. Leadoff hitters sometimes don't. Atkins doesn't walk anymore. He doesn't slug .500 anymore. He might not even hit .300 anymore, considering his .259 batting average after the All-Star break. He'll give you useful numbers as a corner infielder, and he absolutely deserves a roster spot on Draft Day, but he ranks much closer to Mike Lowell and Adrian Beltre than to Kevin Youkilis and Aramis Ramirez.

Potential Sleeper: Ryan Spilborghs, OF

Granted, you can get into trouble whenever you try to translate a part-time player's numbers to full-time duty, but Spilborghs hit so well at times last year that the Rockies couldn't keep him out of their lineup. Now with Matt Holliday and Willy Taveras out of town, they don't have to. Spilborghs doesn't have elite power or speed, but he has enough of both, profiling as a possible 15-15 man, to make an impact in Fantasy. He should hit for a decent average and get on base plenty, making him something like a poor man's Bobby Abreu. As long as he secures a job in the Rockies' wide-open outfield, somebody in your league will pick him up at some point this season. (And by the way, that wide-open outfield situation makes for sleepers aplenty in Fantasy. Seth Smith projects as a similar on-base type, possibly with even more power, but he doesn't have the same assurance of at-bats as Spilborghs.)

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