2009 outlooks: New York Mets

The Mets have choked away the end of each of the past three seasons, mostly due to the lack of a championship bullpen. Well, they attacked that deficiency by adding not one, but two closers in Francisco Rodriguez and J.J. Putz.

Now, they have to hope one of their other glaring holes doesn't do them in this time around.

There are some great Fantasy options with the Mets, namely the best starting pitcher (Johan Santana), the best closer (K-Rod), the best closer-turned-setup man (Putz), arguably the best shortstop (Jose Reyes) and perhaps the best third baseman (David Wright). But, beyond those elite players, the Mets are fairly thin. Carlos Beltran and Carlos Delgado ain't what they used to be, while the entire rotation behind Santana carries a whole lot of unknown.

John Maine could be great, or a surgical candidate. Oliver Perez could be great one start, and wildly awful the next. Mike Pelfrey looks like has turned the corner, but how many pitchers in baseball can get away with throwing 85 percent fastballs forever? And forget about the No. 5 spot at this point. Freddy Garcia hasn't been Fantasy-worthy for years and Jonathon Niese still figures to need a few more years of seasoning. At least the Mets have more depth this time around with the likes of Tim Redding serving as a swing man.

General manager Omar Minaya has pinned their 2009 hopes -- the debut of CitiField, which projects to be only slightly less pitcher friendly -- on the fact that two closers are better than one. It sure beats the no-closer committee they had down the stretch last year after Billy Wagner (elbow surgery) went down.

Sleeper: Ryan Church, OF

You might have forgotten, but Church was the most productive Mets hitter -- perhaps even an NL MVP candidate -- before he was drilled in the head by Yunel Escobar's knee in Atlanta last May. His pace at the time was around .300-30-100-100, which is what he might have been able to develop into if he ever was able to play a full season. That was supposed to happen last season, when he was given the everyday right-fielder's job and was told to run with it. The post-concussion syndrome ruined him the rest of the way and now will make him merely a late-round flier in most mixed leagues -- an injury-risk sleeper. If he proves healthy this spring, watch out for solid numbers -- perhaps even .285-25-90-90 from a potential last-round pick.

Bust: Carlos Delgado, 1B

Whether it was the firing of Willie Randolph or not, Delgado flipped a switch last June. He returned to his 2006-and-earlier form, masher homers and driving in runs at an MVP rate. It will get him drafted among the top 15 Fantasy first basemen again most likely. That is the danger. He very well could be more of the player we saw post-June, but his disappointing numbers in 2007 and the first few months of last season sure looked like a career correction. Father Time is also working against him. He will turn 37 this June and that is well past the prime, and potentially the age of breakdown, for many sluggers.

Breakout: Mike Pelfrey, SP

Pelfrey is another Met who turned a corner right around the time Jerry Manuel and pitching coach Danny Warthen took over in late May. Pelfrey is also a pitching in the 40-70 career starts stage, which tends to lead to dramatic improvement. Pelfrey's full season numbers from 2008 will get him drafted a little later than he probably otherwise should be on Draft Day. At times last season, Pelfrey was the Mets' second best starter to Santana and we think he has a real good chance to be that for the full season in 2009. It could mean he finishes the season as a top 25 Fantasy starter, even if he is drafted after the top 50 at his position.

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