The Yankees are rarely at the forefront of innovation, and yet time and time again, they've proven they don't have to be. They find their success another way: by devoting their considerable resources to whatever's working today.
What's working today is fielding and relief pitching -- the Royals model, to put it another way -- and while patching up a porous defense isn't a quick fix, just one ace reliever can make a world of difference.
And so, in typical Yankees fashion, they sought out the best: Aroldis Chapman and his 103-mph fastball. He's the undisputed king of velocity and is near unhittable as a result. The crazy part is the Yankees already had a ferocious 1-2 punch in Andrew Miller and Dellin Betances, who might rank second and third behind Chapman in terms of pure ability (with Craig Kimbrel and Wade Davis also having some say), so the final one-third of every game is this team's for the taking.
That will help mask the shortcomings of their starting rotation, where none of their intended five is a sure thing. But then again, the same was true for the Royals at this time a year ago.
The Yankees do at least have something close to an ace in Masahiro Tanaka, who has lingering questions about his elbow but is still impressive when he keeps the ball in the park. Also, 21-year-old Luis Severino showed promise in his 60 innings or so last year and will be a popular middle-round target in the hope of a sophomore breakout. Michael Pineda would make for a quality No. 3 if he hadn't imploded late last year. Nathan Eovaldi throws hard and improved some after introducing a splitter to his arsenal but continues to underwhelm overall, and CC Sabathia seems like a lost cause at age 35.
So if the Yankees' strength will be protecting leads, the onus is on their lineup to provide them with leads. And with seven players 31 and older, that's no certainty. The three oldest -- Alex Rodriguez, Carlos Beltran and Mark Teixeira -- were also the three most productive last year, at least in terms of OPS, and nobody really saw Rodriguez and Teixeira coming. The pressure is on Jacoby Ellsbury, then, to bounce back from a disappointing season and for Brett Gardner and Brian McCann to provide their usual second-division numbers.
The good news is the Yankees do have a couple ready-made replacements in Aaron Judge and Gary Sanchez. They will, however, be without the most proven of their up-and-comers, first baseman Greg Bird, who had surgery to repair a torn labrum late in the offseason.
2016 projected lineup
1. Jacoby Ellsbury, CF
2. Brett Gardner, LF
3. Alex Rodriguez, DH
4. Mark Teixeira, 1B
5. Brian McCann, C
6. Carlos Beltran, RF
7. Starlin Castro, 2B
8. Chase Headley, 3B
9. Didi Gregorius, SS
Bench: Dustin Ackley, 2B/OF
Bench: Aaron Hicks, OF
2016 projected rotation
1. Masahiro Tanaka, RHP
2. Luis Severino, RHP
3. Michael Pineda, RHP
4. Nathan Eovaldi, RHP
5. CC Sabathia, LHP
Alt: Ivan Nova, RHP
2016 projected bullpen
1. Aroldis Chapman, LHP
2. Andrew Miller, LHP
3. Dellin Betances, RHP
4. Chasen Shreve, LHP
5. Branden Pinder, RHP
Castro got kind of a raw deal with the Cubs. As a holdover from the previous regime and not the most sabermetrics-friendly player, he was a target of speculation on a Theo Epstein-headed team. His contract was so team-friendly, though, that the Cubs were reticent to trade him until a bottlenecking of middle infielders forced their hand. By that point, they had to sell low. Castro was no better than replacement-level two of the last three seasons, and so the Yankees got him straight-up for swingman Adam Warren. He seems like a perfect change-of-scenery case, now back with an organization that believes in him after having to look over his shoulder the past few years. And there's a lot to believe in: He's a three-time All-Star at age 25, and just the fact that he hit .378 with five homers over his final 82 at-bats last season shows he hasn't lost his stroke.
It's true Pineda struggled to end 2015, but that's OK, right? He was hurt. Why, though, should we believe he isn't still hurt? Yeah, the offseason is long enough to heal most injuries, but some no amount of rest will cure, particularly those of the elbow variety. It's a suspicious timeline, to be sure: He's looking good over his first 17 starts, compiling a 3.64 ERA, 1.20 WHIP and 9.4 strikeouts per nine innings, but then he has a couple of ugly ones and goes on the DL with a strained forearm. When he returns a month later, the ugly starts persist, leaving him with 10 in all to end the regular season. Two of the biggest precursors for Tommy John surgery are forearm issues and inexplicable hittability, and the two just so happened to coincide for Pineda. As we learned with Yu Darvish last spring, it's OK to be suspicious when that happens.
With 31 homers in 392 at-bats, Teixeira was one of the top first basemen in Fantasy when he went down with a bone bruise in his shin last August. But nobody was buying it, right? Not only had he missed much of the previous three seasons due to injury but his production had more or less evaporated during that time, making him the fringiest of mixed-leaguers. So his power surge, while not an outlier for his entire career, still seemed too good to be true. You just don't see many 35-year-old hitters with a career-high ISO. Given the landscape at first base this season, with a steep drop-off after the top 10 or so, someone in a 12-team league is going to have to rely on Teixeira as a starter. If it's you, you'll want to have a backup plan in place.
Prospects report
Gary Sanchez is one of the names to know here. The slugging catcher got some attention this offseason because of a big showing in the Arizona Fall League, homering seven times in 88 at-bats to give him 25 home runs for the calendar year. He could push Brian McCann to DH duties, at least on a part-time basis, by midseason and will get some AL-only attention on Draft Day.
The most relevant Yankees prospect for Fantasy purposes, though, is probably Aaron Judge, a 6-feet-7, 275-pound behemoth with the power to match. His height makes him vulnerable to strikeouts, but he's fairly disciplined and ready to step in if and when Carlos Beltran goes down.
Rob Refsnyder deserves a mention here, especially after his strong debut last year, but the acquisition of Starlin Castro may condemn the 24-year-old to a reserve role. He's a quality hitter -- maybe something like another Daniel Murphy -- but the Yankees have never been sold on his defense.
If you're thinking long-term, Jorge Mateo could be the next great shortstop prospect. The 20-year-old is already an elite base-stealer and is expected to develop power over time.
