After back-to-back 73-win seasons in 2013 and 2014, Phillies general manager Ruben Amaro finally began the work of rebuilding the organization in earnest. Jimmy Rollins and Marlon Byrd were dealt prior to the 2015 season, and Jonathan Papelbon, Cole Hamels, Ben Revere and Chase Utley were sent to contenders for the stretch run. In September, Amaro himself was shown the door.
There wasn't much to celebrate in the Phillies 63-win season, but for the first time in a long time, the minor league pipeline is brimming with talent. While Aaron Nola and Maikel Franco graduated to the majors in 2015, the system still boasts top prospects J.P. Crawford, Jake Thompson and Nick Williams, the latter two of whom were part of the Hamels deal. In trading closer Ken Giles this offseason, they added former No. 1 overall pick Mark Appel, hard-throwing Vincent Velasquez and control artist Thomas Eshelman.
Ryan Howard and Carlos Ruiz are the lone holdovers from the Phillies' perennial division winners of the Charlie Manuel era, and Ruiz has been relegated to backing up Cameron Rupp. The team also got surprisingly good performances from several younger players who were not considered top prospects. Rule 5 pick Odubel Herrera made Revere expendable. Infielder Cesar Hernandez started just 93 games, but went 19 for 24 in stolen base attempts. Aaron Altherr didn't appear as part of the outfield mix until August, but he showed surprising thump, slugging .489. Jerad Eickhoff actually overshadowed Nola, going 3-3 with a 2.65 ERA late in the season.
Many of the Phillies' young rising stars will be in spring training, so there should be plenty of competition for spots in the lineup, rotation and bullpen. Howard, Franco and Nola should be locks for prominent roles, and it's hard to imagine newly acquired pitchers Jeremy Hellickson and Charlie Morton won't be in the rotation, but many of the remaining roles could be up for grabs. This transitional period probably won't be a fruitful one in terms of wins, but 2016 could be the season that we see the Phillies emerge with a new identity. They could also produce more Fantasy -relevant players than you might expect.
2016 projected lineup
1. Cesar Hernandez, 2B
2. Odubel Herrera, CF
3. Maikel Franco, 3B
4. Ryan Howard, 1B
5. Aaron Altherr, RF
6. Cody Asche, LF
7. Cameron Rupp, C
8. Freddy Galvis, SS
BENCH: Carlos Ruiz, C
BENCH, Darin Ruf, 1B
BENCH: Tyler Goeddel, OF
2016 projected rotation
1. Aaron Nola, RHP
2. Jeremy Hellickson, RHP
3. Charlie Morton. RHP
4. Matt Harrison, LHP
5. Jerad Eickhoff, RHP
ALT: Brett Oberholtzer, LHP
2016 projected bullpen
1. David Hernandez, RHP
2. Edward Mujica, RHP
3. James Russell, LHP
4. Luis Garcia, RHP
5. Jeanmar Gomez, RHP
Because Aaron Nola reached the majors just a year after the Phillies made him their first-round pick, he came with high expectations. Since he met those expectations and then some, going 6-2 with a 3.59 ERA and 1.20 WHIP last summer, owners may look for Nola to do even more in 2016. He will have his uses in standard mixed leagues, but as a pitcher who has allowed pulled flyballs at a high rate at almost every stop, he figures to have issues with the long ball at Citizens Bank Park. He was spared the effects of a 1.80 HR/9 ratio at home last season because of his favorable strand and BABIP rates, but Nola should be used with caution this season. He should be safe in most road venues, but the second-year starter should be considered strictly as a streaming option in most leagues.
When the Phillies selected Odubel Herrera in the Rule 5 draft, it was hard to foresee him having an everyday role, much less being of value to mixed league owners. He wasn't of much use to owners in standard points formats, but Herrera finished as a top 50 outfielder in Rotisserie value. He could have a similar level of production in 2016, as last season's .297 batting average was backed up by an opposite field approach, an exceedingly high line drive rate and frequent infield hits. In all likelihood, Herrera's line drive rate will fall, but he still profiles as the sort of batter who can excel at getting hits on balls in play.
Vincent Velasquez is no sure thing to make the Phillies out of spring training, either as a starter or a reliever, but he is someone to watch closely in Head-to-Head leagues. Starting pitchers with relief eligibility (aka SPARPs) can be real difference-makers in the format, but this year's cohort is currently devoid of any pitcher who could make an impact. Velasquez, with his strikeout-per-inning potential, could be the sort of starting pitcher you keep in your RP slot week after week, but he'll need to win a rotation spot first. If you don't draft him in the reserve rounds, you need to monitor his situation closely and be ready to pick him up on waivers at the first sign of him getting a chance to start.
Prospects report
J.P. Crawford is one of the top prospects in all of the minors, and barring a poor transition to Triple-A, he could be one of this season's earlier impact callups. He hasn't shown tremendous power or stolen base potential, but he has demonstrated an impressive level of plate discipline, even as a 20-year-old in Double-A last season. Crawford could be a mixed league shortstop right away.
Cameron Rupp's tenure as the Phillies' starting catcher may not last much longer. Andrew Knapp and Jorge Alfaro both have a chance to challenge Rupp at some point this season. Knapp would probably get the first crack, though Fantasy owners should be skeptical of his 11 home runs in 55 Double-A games in 2015. He took full advantage of a hitter-friendly park in Reading, blasting eight home runs in 26 games there.
The Phillies' crowded outfield could get even more claustrophobic by midseason. Slugger Nick Williams and speedster Roman Quinn could advance to the majors if they can handle Triple-A. Quinn also faces the challenge of bouncing back from a hip injury.
As complicated as the outfield picture is, the pitching situation is even more so. Among the pitchers likely to begin the season in Triple-A, Mark Appel and Jake Thompson figure to be close to the head of the line for a major league promotion. Neither has had an easy time getting strikeouts in the minors, so they will solely have NL-only appeal, should they get called up.
Jimmy Cordero had some struggles with control in Double-A last season, but he is still viewed as the Phillies' closer of the future. If he builds on the progress he made late last season, that future could come sometime in 2016. There is no reason to target him on Draft Day in redraft leagues, but he could be a good future saves source to stash in dynasty formats.
