At most positions, the tiers form kind of a Christmas tree, increasing in size from the top down.First base is more like an hourglass. Provided you play in a 12-team league, your first two rounds figure to be something like 25 percent first basemen.
It’s heavy at the top, but then the tradeoff is that it thins out in the middle, meaning some poor sap will have to settle for someone decidedly second-rate. And at a position where most everyone else has a stud, that’s especially damning.
The Elite: Paul Goldschmidt, Anthony Rizzo, Miguel Cabrera, Joey Votto, Edwin Encarnacion, Daniel Murphy
The Near-Elite: Freddie Freeman, Matt Carpenter, Wil Myers, Jose Abreu, Chris Davis
The Next-Best Things: Carlos Santana, Hanley Ramirez, Albert Pujols, Eric Hosmer, Kendrys Morales*, Adrian Gonzalez
The Fallback Options: Victor Martinez*, Brad Miller, Mike Napoli, Brandon Belt, C.J. Cron
The Last Resorts: Chris Carter, Josh Bell, Greg Bird, Ryan Zimmerman
The Leftovers: Brandon Moss, A.J. Reed, Tommy Joseph, Justin Bour, Lucas Duda, Joe Mauer, Travis Shaw, Dan Vogelbach, Pedro Alvarez*, Trey Mancini*, Sean Rodriguez, Matt Adams, Steve Pearce, Mitch Moreland, Mark Reynolds, Adam Lind, Kennys Vargas, Justin Morneau*
It may actually be more than one poor sap seeing as Murphy and Carpenter are also eligible at positions perceived to be (but not actually) weaker than first base, which isn’t to say first base is itself weak. But the distribution of talent -- with the top five being disseminated less by way of preference than turn order, it being the first two rounds and all -- will make for some audible groans on Draft Day.
It’s not all over after two rounds, of course. Neither Abreu nor Davis is far removed from being Elite, and Freeman was that and then some in the second half last year. The “Near-Elite” is as fitting a designation for the second tier at this position as any. But even it’s all dried up by the end of Round 6 or so, so if you want to avoid the enigmas that are Ramirez and Hosmer, you need to act fast.
You see the players with asterisks (*) next to their names? Yeah, they’re actually DH-only. Tiering them separately is of no help to anyone, so I’ve always included them at first base, thinking it’s the position where a DH-only player is most likely to become eligible in-season. But for many, it doesn’t happen, and so including them here has the side effect of making the position appear deeper than it is.
Assuming Murphy and Carpenter are drafted to play positions other than first base, the first three tiers take us 14 deep at the position, which means more than enough first basemen to go around in a 12-team league. But first base is also the position most often drafted to fill the DH spot (even with DH-only players still on the board), so if a couple owners grab their second before you have your first, understand that your Fallback Options are realistically only three deep. I’m excluding Miller along with Martinez since he’ll more likely be drafted to play shortstop.
And after that, all that’s left are upside plays. You may get lucky with Bell or Bird, but more likely, if stretched to that point, you’ll spend the year scrounging the waiver wire for competent production at a position where elite production is the norm. Not good.