There are not lot of options for a pitcher leaving St. Louis that are going to be an upgrade. While Minnesota isn't quite a lateral move, it's about as close as Lance Lynn was likely to find. And it's certainly better than Jake Arrieta's landing spot of Philadelphia. 

Lynn is also a considerable improvement for the Twins, which could help the upside of Fernando Rodney, if we weren't perpetually concerned about him losing his job. But when you dig down, it's also easy to see that we should not expect Lynn to repeat his 2017 success. 

Target Field is a worse for pitchers by just about every measure than Busch Stadium, and we wouldn't expect Lynn to be as good even if he'd stayed in St. Louis. We're talking about a pitcher who had a 4.82 FIP and a 4.85 SIERA last year but somehow posted a 3.43 ERA. Lynn was one of the top regression candidates amongst MLB pitchers and this move won't change that.

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Player NameRoto RankH2H RankRoto Pos RankH2H Pos Rank
#28#37#4#3
#52#125#17#26
#92#69#24#24
#136#160#14#14
#157#171#49#42
#222#192#17#17
#235#273#25#30
#263#226#66#67
#273#267#78#79
#293#249#28#28
NR#256#86#76


1
The first overall pick in the 2017 draft comes with all the tools you'd expect, projected to grow into power while already demonstrating good instincts on the bases, and has uncommon plate discipline for a teenager. He's obviously a long way off, but he's a wise investment in dynasty leagues.  Scott's 2018 Fantasy impact:  don't count on it
2
Gordon's stock has fallen as he has climbed the minor-league ladder, in part because he has yet to develop a standout tool, unlike his brother Dee Gordon . He's sort of average at everything, which may still result in an above-average Fantasy option if he sticks at shortstop. It doesn't help that he hit .219 over the final three months last year.  Scott's 2018 Fantasy impact:  midseason hopeful
3
Part of me wants to rank Gonsalves higher based on his body of work -- he has a 2.39 ERA over his past three seasons -- but the scouts have always been less than enamored with him and his middling velocity. Still, deceptive lefties with plus changeups have been known to slip through the cracks, so don't sleep on this one.  Scott's 2018 Fantasy impact:  fighting this spring

*Prospect notes from Scott White

Things to Know

  • Just how good could Berrios be this year? As I wrote in my breakouts column, I expect 200 innings, 15 wins and a mid-3s ERA. If he takes another step in the strikeout department, he could absolutely be a top-10 starting pitcher.
  • The Twins bullpen should be a good source of saves, but I don't feel confident in which reliever will have the most. We've been betting against Fernando Rodney for a long time, but he's usually just good enough to keep his job. Addison Reed is a good late-round pick in AL-only Roto because I expect him to get a run at closer some time this year.
  • Jorge Polanco didn't make my breakout column like Berrios and Buxton, but he'll probably be undervalued. He stole 13 bases In just 133 games last year, and with his low K rate should have a much better average than last year's .256.
  • Ervin Santana is a big faller since I first wrote this. He was due for some monster regression as is, and now he may not be ready until mid-May. I'm not completely sold that Santana needs to be drafted in either format.

Lineup & Rotation

Batting order    
                
1 Brian Dozier 2B
2 Joe Mauer 1B
3 Miguel Sano 3B
4 Logan MorrisonDH
5 Byron BuxtonCF
6 Eddie RosarioLF
7 Jorge PolancoSS
7 Max KeplerRF
9 Jason Castro C
Pitchers                             
SP Jose Berrios
SP Lance Lynn
SP Jake Odorizzi
SP Kyle Gibson
SP Ervin Santana
CL Fernando Rodney
RP Addison Reed
RP Taylor Rogers