Alex Kiriloff's career has been filled with ups and downs, and he heads into 2020 on something of a down note. How much of that was due to a wrist injury he suffered at the beginning of the season will be the key to his ultimate upside as a prospect, though his chances of making an impact in the majors in 2020 are probably out of his hands even if he does bounce back
Numbers to Know
- Date of Birth: 11/9/1997
- Height: 6'2"
- Weight: 210 lb
- Prospect Ranks: No. 31 at Baseball America, No. 32 at MLB Pipeline, No. 86 at Baseball Prospectus
- Scott White's Rank: No. 10 Fantasy prospect
- 2019: (AA) .283 BA (375 AB), 9 HR, 18 2B, .756 OPS, 29 BB, 76 K
- Career: .317 (1103 AB), 36 HR, 71 2B, .863 OPS, 78 BB, 194 K
Known Injury History
Tommy John surgery in 2017, wrist injuries in 2019
Strengths
When he's right, Kirilloff has plus hit and power tools, as he showed in a massive 2018 that saw him hit .348 with 20 homers as a 20-year-old. He combines plus contact abilities with an all-field's approach and a swing that gets the ball in the air without selling out for power, a combination that should help the bat play up no matter where he ends up on the field — and it's increasingly looking likely to be first base. Kirilloff's 2019 was a significant disappointment, but it's worth noting that two separate wrist injuries seemed to have a pretty big impact on the final numbers, and he was starting to hit like the guy who deserves his lofty ranking toward the end of the season. We should see him in Triple-A in 2020, and if he stays healthy, he could prove himself MLB-ready soon.
Concerns
It may not matter too much how quickly Kirilloff proves himself ready, because the Twins don't have an obvious spot for him. He's a corner outfielder or first baseman only, and with Max Kepler, Eddie Rosario, and Miguel Sano manning those spots, an injury is the only way he's getting a shot; ditto for DH, which is Nelson Cruz's domain for now. It's easier to get Kirilloff into the lineup in 2021 and beyond, but he'll also need to prove he can stay healthy and productive by then. The bat is expected to play, but he's an aggressive hitter who doesn't figure to provide much value with his legs, so he really needs to hit something close to his best-case scenario to really be a Fantasy difference maker.
Outside Take
"Even with the injury obstacles, Kirilloff is still considered one of the best hitters in the Minor Leagues, one who should continue to hit for both a high average and plenty of power, especially when healthy. He makes consistent hard contact and can drive the ball to all fields, with the left-handed hitter nearly as likely to hit the ball out the other way as he is to his pull side. He's willing to work counts and doesn't swing and miss a lot." -MLB Pipeline
Fantasy Comparison
Kirilloff could end up replacing Eddie Rosario in the Twins outfield eventually, and that's not a bad comp for him either. Like Rosario, Kirilloff doesn't walk much, but he also doesn't strike out much either; he's going to put the ball in play, and good things should happen when he does. Over the past three seasons, Rosario is hitting .284, while averaging 32 homers, 101 RBI, 98 runs, and eight steals per-162 games. Peak Kirilloff could look a lot like that, while something like your typical Eric Hosmer season could be more on the lower end of outcomes, and that's a pretty fringe-y option in there era.
Fantasy Bottom Line
This might be a very good time to buy Kirilloff in Dynasty, coming off such a disappointing season. I know Scott White would advise you to do so, given the aggressive ranking. Personally, this isn't a profile I love for Fantasy — he'll really have to hit to be a standout, which means there isn't much margin for error.
So which sleepers should you snatch in your draft? And which undervalued first baseman can help you win a championship? Visit SportsLine now to get rankings for every single position, all from the model that called Kenta Maeda's huge breakout last season, and find out.
