2024 Fantasy Baseball: Week 3 trade values chart highlights Carlos Rodon as a sell-high candidate

Carlos Rodon was one of the best pitchers in baseball in 2021 and 2022, and he parlayed that success into a massive free agent contract with the Yankees. Things went immediately wrong in 2023, but he's off to a much better start in 2024, as the veteran has a 1.72 ERA over his first three starts after striking out six against the Marlins Tuesday night. 

So, he's back, right?

Eh, not so much. When he's been at his best, Rodon has dominated with an unhittable fastball that generated both tons of whiffs and weak contact, and with a slider that was even better. And neither pitch really looks like it's at that level right now.

The fastball velocity is right around where it was in 2021 and 2022, and the movement profile looks mostly the same, so I'm actually a bit less concerned with that pitch right now, despite mostly middling results to date. He's gotten a whiff on just 18.2% of swings against it after living in the 28-29% range at his best, and he's gotten hit awfully hard with it too, allowing a 91.7 mph average exit velocity and .380 expected wOBA on the pitch; in 2022, he allowed an 89.9 mph average exit velocity and .277 xwOBA with his four-seamer, so that represents significant regression. But, with the velocity and movement looking mostly the same, I don't think it's unreasonable to expect some improvement with that pitch moving forward.

The slider, though, looks like a significant problem at this point. That has been Rodon's signature pitch going back to college, and in 2021 and 2022, it was one of the best pitches in baseball; among 600 individual pitch types that ended at least 100 PA in 2021, Rodon's slider and four-seamer were both in the 90th percentile or better in BaseballSavant's run value metric. He allowed an expected wOBA of just .159 on the slider, while picking up a 40.6% whiff rate, something only three pitchers bested in both categories. 

And that pitch just has not been there for him so far. He's still generating a bunch of weak contact on it, with an 80.6 mph average exit velocity and .244 xwOBA, but his whiff rate has collapsed to just 25%. In Tuesday's start against the Marlins, he threw the slider just 17% of the time and got a single measly whiff with the pitch.

Now, you could look at it optimistically if you want: Rodon is still pitching well without his best pitch, so what happens if he rediscovers it? Why, he could take off like a rocket ship, couldn't he? After all, he's responded by throwing his changeup more and emphasizing a new cutter, and if he rediscovers the slider and suddenly has a four-pitch mix, couldn't he be just as effective as ever? 

The problem here is, I wonder if the cutter might be part of the reason the slider isn't as effective. While Rodon's velocity was down across the board on Tuesday night, his slider velocity was actually up slightly from 2023, and he was getting less movement with the pitch, losing four insides of horizontal break and one inch of vertical break; which is to say, his slider maybe looks a little more like a cutter, perhaps? The introduction of the cutter has given Rodon another option to attack hitters with, but it might be a self-defeating pitch if it is causing his slider to lose effectiveness.

That's just conjecture on my part, and it's not necessarily an unfixable issue. But it's a pretty big red flag for me, and you can see it in Rodon's below-the-hood numbers. His strikeout rate is down to 18.8%, his walk rate is up to 10.1%, and his expected ERA is 4.42. That's a big improvement over last season's 5.34 mark, obviously, but he still looks like a much-diminished version of the guy we saw back in 2021 and 2022.

And I'm not sure I see much reason to think he can get back to that level at this point. A flip could switch overnight that sees Rodon rediscover his slider, but the pitch just doesn't look as sharp as it used to, and I'm not sure this new cutter nor a new focus on the changeup is likely to make up the gap there. 

Rodon is a top-40 pitcher for me, but he might be viewed a lot more highly by someone in your league, and I'd be actively trying to trade him right now. One offer I'd look into is sending Rodon to the team with Jared Jones and seeing if I could get a slow-starting hitter thrown in on top of that; a Vinnie Pasquantino or Xander Bogaerts type. Or, maybe see if you could ship Rodon out straight up for someone like Francisco Lindor. 

You might regret it. Rodon might rediscover the form that once made him a Cy Young contender. But he hasn't looked like that guy in an awfully long time, and I don't see much reason to assume he's going to get there at this point. Selling Rodon right now might be your best way to take advantage of his hot start. 

H2H Trade Values Chart

Rank	Player	Value	Eligible
1	Ronald Acuna	54	OF
2	Mookie Betts	42	2B-OF-SS
3	Juan Soto	41	OF
4	Freddie Freeman	38	1B
5	Fernando Tatis	38	OF
6	Corbin Carroll	36	OF
7	Aaron Judge	34	DH-OF
8	Kyle Tucker	34	OF
9	Jose Ramirez	34	3B-DH
10	Yordan Alvarez	34	DH-OF
11	Julio Rodriguez	33	OF
12	Bobby Witt	33	SS
13	Shohei Ohtani	33	DH-SP
14	Matt Olson	33	1B
15	Bryce Harper	33	1B-DH
16	Corbin Burnes	30	SP
17	Corey Seager	30	SS
18	Trea Turner	29	SS
19	Pete Alonso	29	1B
20	Marcus Semien	28	2B
21	Francisco Lindor	28	SS
22	Vladimir Guerrero	27	1B-DH
23	Austin Riley	26	3B
24	Rafael Devers	26	3B
25	Jose Altuve	26	2B
26	Gunnar Henderson	25	3B-SS
27	Zack Wheeler	24	SP
28	Kevin Gausman	23	SP
29	Luis Castillo	23	SP
30	Pablo Lopez	23	SP
31	Tarik Skubal	23	SP
32	Zac Gallen	23	SP
33	Ozzie Albies	23	2B
34	George Kirby	23	SP
35	Bo Bichette	23	SS
36	Logan Webb	22	SP
37	Alex Bregman	21	3B
38	Elly De La Cruz	21	3B-SS
39	Logan Gilbert	21	SP
40	C.J. Abrams	21	SS
41	Yoshinobu Yamamoto	21	SP
42	Aaron Nola	21	SP
43	Tyler Glasnow	21	SP
44	Cole Ragans	21	RP-SP
45	Nico Hoerner	20	2B-SS
46	Randy Arozarena	20	OF
47	Luis Robert	20	OF
48	Mike Trout	20	OF
49	Zach Eflin	20	SP
50	Michael Harris	20	OF
51	Christian Yelich	19	DH-OF
52	Adolis Garcia	18	OF
53	Kyle Schwarber	18	DH-OF
54	Max Fried	18	SP
55	Cody Bellinger	18	1B-OF
56	Oneil Cruz	18	SS
57	Manny Machado	15	3B-DH
58	Nolan Jones	15	OF
59	Bryan Reynolds	15	OF
60	Grayson Rodriguez	15	SP
61	Jazz Chisholm	15	OF
62	Blake Snell	15	SP
63	Jesus Luzardo	15	SP
64	Edwin Diaz	15	RP
65	Paul Goldschmidt	15	1B-DH
66	Christian Walker	15	1B
67	Adley Rutschman	15	C-DH
68	Freddy Peralta	15	SP
69	Josh Hader	15	RP
70	Bobby Miller	15	SP
71	Triston Casas	15	1B
72	Ketel Marte	15	2B
73	Emmanuel Clase	15	RP
74	Yandy Diaz	15	1B
75	Joe Musgrove	15	SP
76	Tanner Bibee	15	SP
77	Dylan Cease	15	SP
78	Seiya Suzuki	15	OF
79	William Contreras	15	C-DH
80	Framber Valdez	15	SP
81	Will Smith	15	C
82	Nolan Arenado	15	3B
83	J.T. Realmuto	15	C
84	Nick Castellanos	15	OF
85	Wyatt Langford	15	DH-OF
86	Max Muncy	15	3B
87	Riley Greene	15	OF
88	Xander Bogaerts	15	2B-SS
89	George Springer	15	DH-OF
90	Camilo Doval	15	RP
91	Josh Naylor	15	1B-DH
92	Chris Bassitt	15	SP
93	Sonny Gray	15	SP
94	Raisel Iglesias	15	RP
95	Yainer Diaz	15	C-DH
96	Gleyber Torres	15	2B
97	Andres Gimenez	15	2B
98	Ha-seong Kim	15	2B-3B-SS
99	Bryson Stott	15	2B
100	Spencer Torkelson	15	1B
101	Jose Berrios	15	SP
102	Anthony Santander	15	DH-OF
103	Ian Happ	15	OF
104	Evan Carter	15	OF
105	Chris Sale	15	SP
106	Shane Bieber	15	SP
107	Justin Steele	15	SP
108	Jordan Walker	15	OF
109	Alexis Diaz	14	RP
110	Dansby Swanson	14	SS
111	Spencer Steer	14	1B-3B-OF
112	Bailey Ober	14	SP
113	Merrill Kelly	13	SP
114	Jackson Chourio	13	OF
115	Ke'Bryan Hayes	13	3B
116	Vinnie Pasquantino	13	1B
117	Andres Munoz	13	RP
118	Jarren Duran	13	OF
119	Carlos Rodon	13	SP
120	Ryan Helsley	13	RP
121	Marcell Ozuna	13	DH
122	Jordan Romano	13	RP
123	David Bednar	13	RP
124	Teoscar Hernandez	13	DH-OF
125	Christian Encarnacion-Strand	12	1B-DH
126	Joe Ryan	12	SP
127	Pete Fairbanks	11	RP
128	Evan Phillips	10	RP
129	Steven Kwan	9	OF
130	Jorge Soler	9	DH-OF
131	Hunter Greene	8	SP
132	Walker Buehler	8	SP
133	Gerrit Cole	8	SP
134	Kodai Senga	8	SP
135	Gavin Williams	8	SP
136	Anthony Volpe	8	DH-OF
137	Mitch Keller	8	SP
138	Garrett Crochet	8	RP
139	Luis Arraez	8	2B
140	Shota Imanaga	7	SP
141	Clay Holmes	7	RP
142	Justin Verlander	7	SP
143	Jordan Montgomery	7	SP
144	Jake Burger	7	1B-3B-DH
145	Brandon Nimmo	7	OF
146	Willson Contreras	7	C-DH
147	Francisco Alvarez	7	C
148	Thairo Estrada	7	2B-SS
149	Adbert Alzolay	7	RP
150	Kenley Jansen	7	RP
151	Zack Gelof	7	2B
152	Cal Raleigh	7	C
153	Salvador Perez	7	1B-C-DH
154	Abner Uribe	7	RP
155	Jhoan Duran	7	RP
156	Craig Kimbrel	7	RP
157	Yu Darvish	7	SP
158	Willy Adames	7	SS
159	Mitch Garver	7	C-DH
160	Rhys Hoskins	7	1B
161	Cristian Javier	7	SP
162	Jack Flaherty	7	SP
163	Masataka Yoshida	7	DH-OF
164	Jonathan India	7	2B
165	Alec Bohm	7	1B-3B
166	Henry Davis	7	C-OF
167	Bryce Miller	6	SP
168	Michael King	6	RP-SP
169	Joshua Lowe	6	SS
170	Logan O'Hoppe	6	C
171	Hunter Brown	6	SP
172	Gabriel Moreno	6	C
173	Bo Naylor	6	C
174	Keibert Ruiz	6	C
175	Jordan Hicks	6	RP
176	Aaron Civale	6	SP
177	Paul Sewald	6	RP
178	Isaac Paredes	5	1B-3B
179	Tanner Scott	5	RP
180	Jung-Hoo Lee	5	OF
181	Spencer Strider	5	SP
182	James Outman	5	OF
183	Cedric Mullins	5	OF
184	Chas McCormick	5	OF
185	Nathan Eovaldi	5	SP
186	Byron Buxton	5	DH-OF
187	Nolan Gorman	5	2B-DH
188	Edouard Julien	5	2B-DH
189	Bryan Woo	4	SP
190	Nick Pivetta	4	RP-SP
191	Ezequiel Tovar	4	SS
192	Jose Leclerc	4	RP
193	Zack Littell	4	RP-SP
194	Brandon Pfaadt	4	SP
195	Gavin Stone	4	SP
196	Eloy Jimenez	4	DH
197	Garrett Whitlock	4	RP-SP
198	Yusei Kikuchi	3	SP
199	Lane Thomas	3	OF
200	Maikel Garcia	3	3B
201	Tanner Houck	3	SP
202	Jonah Heim	3	C
203	Ryan Pepiot	3	RP
204	Taylor Ward	3	OF
205	Carlos Correa	3	SS
206	Nick Lodolo	3	SP
207	J.P. Crawford	3	SS
208	Charlie Morton	3	SP
209	Eduardo Rodriguez	3	SP
210	Tyler O'Neill	3	OF
211	Jackson Merrill	3	OF-SS
212	Max Scherzer	3	SP
213	Christopher Morel	3	3B-DH-OF
214	Daulton Varsho	3	OF
215	Jose Alvarado	3	RP
216	Jared Jones	3	SP
217	Reid Detmers	3	SP
218	Jeremy Pena	3	SS
219	Brandon Lowe	3	2B
220	Josh Bell	3	1B-DH
221	Kerry Carpenter	3	DH-OF

Roto Trade Values Chart

Rank	Player	Value	Eligible
1	Ronald Acuna	55	OF
2	Julio Rodriguez	42	OF
3	Bobby Witt	41	SS
4	Mookie Betts	39	2B-OF-SS
5	Fernando Tatis	38	OF
6	Corbin Carroll	37	OF
7	Freddie Freeman	34	1B
8	Kyle Tucker	34	OF
9	Juan Soto	34	OF
10	Trea Turner	34	SS
11	Shohei Ohtani	33	DH-SP
12	Jose Ramirez	33	3B-DH
13	Yordan Alvarez	33	DH-OF
14	Aaron Judge	33	DH-OF
15	Matt Olson	30	1B
16	Corbin Burnes	30	SP
17	Bryce Harper	29	1B-DH
18	Austin Riley	29	3B
19	Rafael Devers	29	3B
20	Pete Alonso	28	1B
21	Francisco Lindor	28	SS
22	Ozzie Albies	27	2B
23	Marcus Semien	26	2B
24	Zack Wheeler	26	SP
25	Vladimir Guerrero	26	1B-DH
26	Gunnar Henderson	25	3B-SS
27	Elly De La Cruz	25	3B-SS
28	Corey Seager	25	SS
29	Jose Altuve	25	2B
30	Luis Robert	24	OF
31	Luis Castillo	24	SP
32	Kevin Gausman	24	SP
33	Pablo Lopez	24	SP
34	Bo Bichette	23	SS
35	Michael Harris	23	OF
36	Randy Arozarena	22	OF
37	Adolis Garcia	22	OF
38	Tarik Skubal	22	SP
39	Yoshinobu Yamamoto	22	SP
40	Zac Gallen	22	SP
41	C.J. Abrams	21	SS
42	Tyler Glasnow	21	SP
43	Nico Hoerner	21	2B-SS
44	George Kirby	21	SP
45	Logan Gilbert	20	SP
46	Nolan Jones	20	OF
47	Logan Webb	20	SP
48	Jazz Chisholm	20	OF
49	Mike Trout	20	OF
50	Aaron Nola	18	SP
51	Max Fried	18	SP
52	Christian Yelich	18	DH-OF
53	Kyle Schwarber	18	DH-OF
54	Oneil Cruz	18	SS
55	Edwin Diaz	18	RP
56	Josh Hader	18	RP
57	Zach Eflin	17	SP
58	Adley Rutschman	17	C-DH
59	Cole Ragans	17	RP-SP
60	Alex Bregman	17	3B
61	Emmanuel Clase	17	RP
62	Bryan Reynolds	17	OF
63	William Contreras	17	C-DH
64	Manny Machado	16	3B-DH
65	Camilo Doval	16	RP
66	Freddy Peralta	16	SP
67	Grayson Rodriguez	16	SP
68	Paul Goldschmidt	16	1B-DH
69	J.T. Realmuto	16	C
70	Gleyber Torres	16	2B
71	Cody Bellinger	16	1B-OF
72	Christian Walker	16	1B
73	Nolan Arenado	16	3B
74	Will Smith	16	C
75	Jesus Luzardo	16	SP
76	Raisel Iglesias	16	RP
77	Bobby Miller	15	SP
78	Seiya Suzuki	15	OF
79	Nick Castellanos	15	OF
80	Ketel Marte	15	2B
81	Triston Casas	15	1B
82	Ha-seong Kim	15	2B-3B-SS
83	Xander Bogaerts	15	2B-SS
84	Riley Greene	15	OF
85	Bryson Stott	15	2B
86	Blake Snell	14	SP
87	Dylan Cease	14	SP
88	Tanner Bibee	14	SP
89	Andres Gimenez	14	2B
90	Yainer Diaz	14	C-DH
91	Josh Naylor	14	1B-DH
92	Spencer Torkelson	14	1B
93	Yandy Diaz	14	1B
94	George Springer	14	DH-OF
95	Andres Munoz	14	RP
96	Framber Valdez	14	SP
97	Joe Musgrove	14	SP
98	Jordan Walker	14	OF
99	Dansby Swanson	14	SS
100	Jackson Chourio	14	OF
101	Wyatt Langford	14	DH-OF
102	Evan Carter	14	OF
103	Alexis Diaz	14	RP
104	Pete Fairbanks	14	RP
105	Spencer Steer	14	1B-3B-OF
106	Teoscar Hernandez	14	DH-OF
107	Jarren Duran	13	OF
108	Ryan Helsley	13	RP
109	Chris Sale	13	SP
110	Evan Phillips	13	RP
111	Cal Raleigh	13	C
112	Clay Holmes	13	RP
113	Christian Encarnacion-Strand	13	1B-DH
114	Marcell Ozuna	13	DH
115	Kenley Jansen	13	RP
116	Vinnie Pasquantino	13	1B
117	Ian Happ	13	OF
118	Willson Contreras	13	C-DH
119	Joe Ryan	13	SP
120	Hunter Greene	13	SP
121	Chris Bassitt	12	SP
122	Jake Burger	11	1B-3B-DH
123	David Bednar	11	RP
124	Ke'Bryan Hayes	10	3B
125	Bailey Ober	10	SP
126	Justin Steele	9	SP
127	Jorge Soler	9	DH-OF
128	Anthony Santander	9	DH-OF
129	Abner Uribe	9	RP
130	Adbert Alzolay	9	RP
131	Francisco Alvarez	9	C
132	Mitch Garver	9	C-DH
133	Rhys Hoskins	9	1B
134	Luis Arraez	9	2B
135	Justin Verlander	9	SP
136	Walker Buehler	8	SP
137	Jordan Romano	8	RP
138	Sonny Gray	8	SP
139	Carlos Rodon	8	SP
140	Gerrit Cole	7	SP
141	Kodai Senga	7	SP
142	Anthony Volpe	7	SS
143	Shota Imanaga	7	SP
144	Merrill Kelly	7	SP
145	Zack Gelof	7	2B
146	Thairo Estrada	7	2B-SS
147	Willy Adames	7	SS
148	Logan O'Hoppe	7	C
149	Salvador Perez	7	1B-C-DH
150	Joshua Lowe	7	DH-OF
151	Max Muncy	7	3B
152	Isaac Paredes	7	1B-3B
153	Alec Bohm	7	1B-3B
154	Gabriel Moreno	7	C
155	Craig Kimbrel	7	RP
156	Brandon Nimmo	7	OF
157	Garrett Crochet	7	RP
158	Steven Kwan	7	OF
159	Chas McCormick	7	OF
160	Mitch Keller	7	SP
161	Masataka Yoshida	7	DH-OF
162	Henry Davis	7	C-OF
163	Tanner Scott	7	RP
164	Jose Berrios	7	SP
165	Cedric Mullins	7	OF
166	Tyler O'Neill	7	OF
167	Jordan Montgomery	6	SP
168	Daulton Varsho	6	OF
169	Nolan Gorman	6	2B-DH
170	Yu Darvish	6	SP
171	Aaron Civale	6	SP
172	Cristian Javier	6	SP
173	Keibert Ruiz	6	C
174	Eloy Jimenez	6	DH
175	Jonah Heim	6	C
176	Byron Buxton	6	DH-OF
177	Gavin Williams	6	SP
178	Lane Thomas	5	OF
179	Bo Naylor	5	C
180	Christopher Morel	5	3B-DH-OF
181	Bryce Miller	5	SP
182	Jhoan Duran	5	RP
183	Jonathan India	5	2B
184	James Outman	5	OF
185	Hunter Brown	5	SP
186	Jack Flaherty	5	SP
187	Nathan Eovaldi	5	SP
188	Jose Alvarado	5	RP
189	Kerry Carpenter	4	DH-OF
190	Taylor Ward	4	OF
191	Jackson Merrill	4	OF-SS
192	Brice Turang	4	2B-SS
193	Carlos Correa	4	SS
194	Jung-Hoo Lee	4	OF
195	Jose Leclerc	4	RP
196	J.D. Martinez	4	DH
197	Paul Sewald	4	RP
198	Michael King	3	RP-SP
199	Nick Pivetta	3	RP-SP
200	Tanner Houck	3	SP
201	Victor Scott II	3	OF
202	Jason Foley	3	RP
203	Lars Nootbaar	3	OF
204	Maikel Garcia	3	3B
205	Tommy Edman	3	2B-OF-SS
206	Carlos Estevez	3	RP
207	Ezequiel Tovar	3	SS
208	Nick Lodolo	3	SP
209	Ryan Mountcastle	3	1B-DH
210	Luis Campusano	3	C
211	Starling Marte	3	OF
212	Brandon Drury	3	1B-2B
213	Jeimer Candelario	3	1B-3B
214	Colt Keith	3	2B-3B
215	Spencer Strider	3	SP
216	Matt Chapman	3	3B
217	Ryan McMahon	3	2B-3B
218	Anthony Rizzo	3	1B
219	Nate Lowe	3	1B
220	Lourdes Gurriel	3	DH-OF
221	Kyle Bradish	3	SP
222	Mason Miller	2	SP
223	Robert Suarez	2	RP
224	Reid Detmers	2	SP
225	Gavin Stone	2	SP
226	Yusei Kikuchi	2	SP
227	Jordan Hicks	2	RP
228	Max Scherzer	2	SP
229	Brandon Pfaadt	2	SP
230	Andrew Vaughn	2	1B
231	Kyle Finnegan	2	RP
232	Charlie Morton	2	SP
233	Jarred Kelenic	2	OF
234	Braxton Garrett	2	SP
235	Kenta Maeda	2	SP
236	Royce Lewis	2	3B
237	Eduardo Rodriguez	2	SP
238	Jeremy Pena	2	SS
239	Nestor Cortes	2	SP
240	Will Smith	2	RP
241	Tyler Stephenson	2	C-DH
242	Luis Severino	2	SP
243	Jared Jones	2	SP
244	Jorge Polanco	2	2B
245	Max Kepler	2	OF
246	Kevin Ginkel	2	RP
247	Josh Bell	2	1B-DH
248	Luis Rengifo	2	2B-3B-OF-SS
249	Josh Jung	2	3B
250	Kutter Crawford	2	SP
251	MJ Melendez	2	OF
252	Will Benson	2	OF
253	Jack Suwinski	2	OF
254	Cristopher Sanchez	2	SP
255	Michael Kopech	2	SP
256	Andrew Abbott	2	SP