elly-de-la-cruz.jpg

It's easy to fall victim to "prospect hugging" in Dynasty leagues, so prioritizing the long-term that you forget the short-term. But the ultimate goal is, of course, to win a championship, and to achieve that goal, established players may be of some value to you.

So how do you weigh those two competing factors? That's what I'm looking to demonstrate here and to do so, I'll need to rope in a third factor: confidence. Just as important as how good a player should be or could be is how certain I am of it. To develop these rankings, I've assigned each player a score (with one being the lowest and five the highest) for each of these three factors:

  1. Present value: What a player is expected to be in 2025
  2. Future value: What his peak looks like and how much peak he has left
  3. Confidence rating: How confident I am in him meeting his present and future value

Add the three numbers, adjust for age and preference, and lo and behold, rankings.

Of course, the precise value of a player to you in Dynasty largely depends on where you are in the contention/rebuild cycle, to the extent you believe in such things, so even if you can't see yourself drafting in strict adherence to this list, it might have value to you as a trade guide. In fact, I'd say that's its primary use in longstanding Dynasty leagues.

Top 150 for dynasty leagues
RankPlayerAge (on 7/1)PresentFutureConfidence
1 255 5 5
2 26 5 5 5
3 30
5 4
5
4 245 5 4
5 245
54
6 285
54
7 235
53
8 245
5
3
9 26
5 5
3
10 27
55
3
11 26
5
5
3
12 23
5 5
3
13 214
5 4
14 22
4
5
4
15 33
5
3
5
16 285
4
4
17 285
4
4
18 32
5
3
5
19 325
35
20 28
4
4
5
21 28
4
4
5
22 31
5
3
4
23 284
4
4
24 27
44
4
25 32
4
3
4
26 32
43
4
27 27
4
4
3
28 30
4
3
4
29 284
4
3
30 274
4
3
31 223
5
3
32 31
4
3
4
33 32
4 3
4
34 31
4 3
4
35 30
43
4
36 28443
37 2645
2
38 274
4
3
39 273
4
4
40 264
5
2
41 243
4
3
42 2434
3
43 2335
2
44 2135
2
45 211
54
46 23
3
5
2
47 26
3
5
2
48 3143
3
49 29
44
2
50 263
5
2
51 273
3
4
52 35
5
1
4
53 35
4
1
5
54 25
3
4
3
55 27
4
4
2
56 32
4
2
4
57 314
2
4
58 3043
3
59 23
2
5
2
60 222
5
2
61 23
1
5
3
62 22
1
5
3
63 243
5
1
64 274
4
1
65 2634
2
66 263
42
67 293
3
3
68 28
3
4
2
69 26
3
4
2
70 303
3
3
71 30
3
3
3
72 30
3
2
4
73 28
3
3
3
74 28
3
33
75 263
4
2
76 25
34
2
77 2434
2
78 2434
2
79 2534
2
80 23
2
4
3
81 22
2
4
3
82 222
5
2
83 222
5
2
84 232
5
2
85 354
1
4
86 36
5
1
3
87 34
4
2
3
88 34
4
2
3
89 32
4
3
2
90 34
4
2
3
91 2534
2
92 273
4
2
93 29
3
3
3
94 314
3
2
95 31
4
3
2
96 313
2
4
97 32
3
2
4
98 31
3
2
4
99 201
5
2
100 21
152
101 211
5
2
102 222
5
1
103 253
4
1
104 243
41
105 22
1
5
2
106 22
1
4
3
107 22
1
5
2
108 30
4
3
1
109 27
34
1
110 27
33
2
111 263
4
1
112 263
3
2
113 29
33
2
114 29
3
3
2
115 29
3
3
2
116 252
42
117 252
42
118 25
3
4
1
119 26
3
3
2
120 232
42
121 242
5
1
122 201
5
2
123 221
5
2
124 2215 2
125 19
1
5
2
126 18
1
5
2
127 33
4
2
2
128 32
3
2
3
129 29
33
2
130 30
32
3
131 30
3
2
3
132 31
3
2
3
133 313
2
3
134 222
4
2
135 221
5
2
136 21
1
5
2
137 19
1
5
2
138 18
1
5
2
139 30
3
2
3
140 293
3
2
141 293
3
2
142 283
41
143 25
2
4
2
144 242
42
145 201
5
1
146 221
5
1
147 232
4
1
148 2722
3
149 282
2
3
150 282
3
2