Save your draft picks.
One of the toughest decisions you'll have to make this spring is when do you draft your relievers -- and which ones do you invest in?
But are you spending too much on a position that is a bigger crapshoot than a box of fancy chocolates -- do you get a chocolate-covered cherry (Joe Nathan) or a dark chocolate-covered garlic clove (Eric Gagne)?
For the most part, if you follow writer's leagues or even look at CBS SportsLine.com's Average Draft Positions for this season, you'll notice that the top closers in the game begin to fall off the board anywhere from Round 3 through Round 5. Slowly at first, but then, the floodgates open and four or five are ripped off with 10 picks. Then you'll notice a trickling of closers for the next couple rounds until again, near the ninth, 10th and 11th rounds, another run of gamestoppers go off the board.
That's pretty textbook. You can mock draft 100 times and likely end up with some sort of variation on those numbers in nearly every one.
But if you take a close look at the numbers from last season, you might do just as well if you skip closers until the final few rounds of your draft.
"But Gonos," you ask, "How can I be expected to compete in the saves category of my Rotisserie league if I wait that late to pick up some closers? And what's up with those stupid backwards hats on the Fantasy columnist pages?"
"Well, reader," I say, "You don't have to waste high draft picks at the most volatile position in the draft just to finish somewhere in the middle of the saves category. And you should have seen the sombreros that they wanted us to wear originally."
Closer History 101
Looking back to last season, I pulled the name of any relief pitcher that was in our Average Draft Rankings this time last year that would have been drafted among the top 276 players in a mixed league (23 players, 12 rounds). There were 35 relievers picked among the top 276 players in early March of last year.
Those 35 relievers were a generous mix of closers (Mariano Rivera), hopeful closers (Eric Gagne), setup men (Kyle Farnsworth) that could inherit the job if an injury occurs (Braden Looper) and, finally, relievers from the year before that were going to start on a staff last year (Jorge Sosa).
Those 35 relievers totaled 734 saves in 2006. That's an average of about 21 saves per closer. If you had four of those guys, you'd end up with about 84 saves on your Rotisserie squad, which would've landed you fifth in that category in the Fantasy Magazine league (our model 12-team Rotisserie mixed league). That's pretty good, but the odds that you can get through a season with four healthy 21-save closers are relatively low.
What else is interesting is the fact that there were a total of 1,201 saves recorded last season among the 30 major league teams. That means that there was 467 saves that went undrafted in most leagues at this time last spring! That's more than a third of all the saves in the majors (actually, it's about 39 percent!). So, even if you skipped out on selecting a closer in your draft last year, you still could have worked mercilessly in the first month or two of the year to acquire free agents such as Joe Borowski, Akinori Otsuka, Jonathan Papelbon, J.J. Putz and Takashi Saito -- all of whom recorded more than 21 saves last year.
Obviously, it takes a keen eye to pick out the Papelbon's from the Chris Reitsma's, but you can still set yourself up for success starting with your draft.
A Modest Proposal
I'm not talking about punting the saves category altogether. While it's true, you can compete in your Rotisserie league by taking the one point for scoring 12th in that category while beefing up elsewhere. However, you can't afford to have your first-round slugger miss two months of the season. You can't afford to have your No. 1 starter go on the DL for six weeks, either.
I'm suggesting that you wait until the later rounds of your draft, say, from Round 16-23, before you start picking your relievers. Grab at least four. Lean toward relievers that are above-average, but are stuck in a setup role (Scot Shields, Scott Linebrink) or ones that could see an opportunity because of the shaky talent ahead of them.
Here's a quick list of relievers currently not among the top 180 players (first 15 rounds) being drafted right now that might fit this strategy well: Borowski, Jonathan Broxton, Ryan Dempster, Octavio Dotel, Todd Jones, Akinori Otsuka, Joel Pineiro, Scot Shields, Taylor Tankersley, Salomon Torres, Jose Valverde, Bob Wickman and Joel Zumaya.
Then those on the outside of the top 276 players that you might want to target: Matt Capps, Mike Gonzalez, Scott Linebrink, Seth McClung, Henry Owens, Juan Salas and Jonathan O. Sanchez.
Personally, I'm a big fan of a handful of players in each of those groups. Here are some arguments in favor of waiting on these players:
- I found it interesting that both Jones and Zumaya landed in that first group. Jones is the unquestioned closer going into this season, no matter how strong Zumaya looks. But the former is 39 years old, so anticipating a lengthy stay on the DL is reasonable. If you are in dire need of saves and Jones is still there, you have to take him in the 16th round. If he's gone, Zumaya's the next best thing because he's going to help you in ERA, WHIP and, of course, strikeouts.
- Borowski gets no love. Ever. Two seasons ago, he joined the Devil Rays after leaving the Cubs and, in a setup role to Danys Baez, threw up a 1.085 WHIP. The next year, he joined the Marlins and had to battle for the closer's role. He finished with 36 saves on a spunky Florida team. He moves on again, this time to Cleveland, where he inherits the closer's job now that Keith Foulke has retired. He strikes out twice as many as he walks and the Indians' pitching staff will provide him plenty of chances.
- Dempster didn't pitch as poorly as his numbers indicated last season and now he'll have an offense that should give him more leads in the ninth.
- Dotel joins the Royals, who were eighth in the majors last year with 66 save opportunities. He's healthy and underrated on this team.
- Tankersley's shoulder injury likely keeps him out until a few weeks into the season, so expect Henry Owens to start the year as Florida's closer. Whether he can keep that job or not depends on Tankersley's health and his own progress.
- McClung will start the season as the Devil Rays' closer, but he came into camp overweight. Salas has already proven in the minors that he can shut a game down, but realize that if he does get the job, it likely won't be for good.
- Torres performed well as a substitute closer late last season, but will he be able to sustain that through the entire year? Expect Capps to get a chance at some point this year -- and I say earlier rather than later.
Have a comment or a Quirky League of your own for the Fantasy Baseball writers? Feel free to email me at DMFantasyBaseball@cbs.com. But make sure you add "Attn: Closers" so that Emack knows to ignore these e-mails instantly! I might not be able to answer all questions due to a large volume, but I'll do my best.