By the Numbers: Admitting omission and making a case

This column was supposed to be a continuation of last week's "Spring Flings" theme, but I've decided to give those March pitching phenoms a chance to pad their stats some more before we evaluate them. Instead, I want to address a question that has been burning a hole in the mailbag: Why wasn't Jonathan Broxton on my list of "closers in waiting" in last week's Closer Mentality column? While I wish I could say I was saving him for a special piece on relievers who are also eligible at offensive tackle, the truth is I simply left him out. Clearly he belongs on the list, and he has been added thanks to your careful scrutiny.

The mailbag was also loaded with questions about the closer situation further down the Santa Ana Freeway. Several readers were incredulous that Francisco Rodriguez could be lumped in with the likes of Todd Jones and C.J. Wilson on the "closers at risk" list. A look at his three-year trend certainly lends some credence to the gripes. He has saved at least 40 games each of the last three years, blown only about one in 10 save chances, and whiffed an astounding 12 batters per nine innings with regularity.

Still, there's one stat in that table that makes me nervous if I'm a K-Rod owner: the free pass he issues roughly every other inning. Clearly it hasn't prevented him from racking up saves yet, so no cause for worry, right? If the name Brad Lidge causes you night sweats, you might be interested in seeing his three-year trends, too. There's an eerie similarity here.

Rodriguez and Lidge have very similar skills on the whole, though Lidge has the overall advantage in K/BB and K-Rod generally has the better HR/9 rate. Since 2005, though, the results in terms of saves and ERA have been dramatically different. The difference between them comes down to Lidge's HR/9 spike (declining skill) and a H/BIP rate that has fluctuated in the 30-35 percent range (bad luck). The H/BIP rate for Rodriguez, on the other hand, has varied between 26-31 percent. With even a slightly off-year skillwise or a bad-luck year with more balls in play falling for base hits, Rodriguez could look suspiciously like Lidge -- in other words, a closer at risk.

To be a closer at risk, there doesn't necessarily need to be a replacement in the wings, but it certainly can speed a closer's departure if help is already on the roster. Even if Rodriguez falters, can the Angels replace him without having to make a deal? One candidate who has seemed to be on the verge of closerdom for years is Scot Shields. His current health issues aside, his skill trend suggests that he is not ready to be a closer. Until he can show the control he had in 2006 on a more consistent basis, Shields will not prevent baserunners with the regularity he needs to in order to close games.

The Angels do have a borderline closer candidate, but it's not Shields. If Justin Speier can cut back on the long ball, he could be a very effective closer. He was not included on the list of "closers in waiting" because his HR/9 rate crept across the 1.0 threshold, but his numbers are already very similar to those of potential closers like Bob Howry and Rafael Perez. In all likelihood, Speier is not going to take Rodriguez’s job, but he could hold down the role competently if K-Rod were to struggle.

There is no reason to think that Rodriguez is going to stop ringing up Ks at an astronomical rate. It is also unlikely that his control problems will get even worse. However, regardless of the competition posed by Rodriguez’ bullpen mates, he is just a fluky H/BIP rate or a home run spike away from putting his role in jeopardy. As the lesson of Lidge shows us, just because a closer gives us consistent results over a couple of seasons or more, there can be underlying clues that point to some nasty surprises ahead.

Al Melchior was recently a Fantasy columnist and data analyst for Baseball HQ and will be providing advice columns for CBSSports.com. Click here to send him a question. Please put "Melchior" in the subject field.