Got some struggling Met and Pirate hitters on your Fantasy roster? In Fantasy Week 4 (April 26-May 2), they will be facing a struggling Dodger pitching staff. That's right, the Dodgers who led the majors with a 3.41 team ERA now sport the sixth-worst ERA in baseball.
As of April 20, they have been giving up two extra runs per nine innings, as their team ERA has soared to 5.48. With this difficult start, can we still fear the Dodgers as a nightmare matchup, or should we lick our chops when our hitters face the staff from Chavez Ravine?
For starters, we know that Clayton Kershaw and Hiroki Kuroda have been as tough as expected and that a matchup against either of these pitchers will be no picnic. It's the rest of the L.A. rotation that have created a feast for NL hitters. Chad Billingsley and Vicente Padilla currently have ERAs that are more than three runs higher than last year's, and the dropoff from departed free agent Randy Wolf to rotation newcomer Charlie Haeger has been even steeper than anticipated. We would also be remiss if we failed to mention the bullpen's struggles. Jonathan Broxton has been fine, but George Sherrill, Ramon Ortiz and the recently-demoted Russ Ortiz have given the Dodgers 20 2/3 innings of sheer hittability.
Yet for all of the misery, the worst of the current Dodger staff hasn't been as terrible as they have appeared. The graph below shows that Billingsley, Padilla and Haeger have all improved their strikeout rates and only Haeger has been substantially more generous with walks than a year ago (albeit in very few innings in both seasons). Likewise, Sherrill and Ramon Ortiz (who pitched in Triple-A in 2009) have been missing bats, though Sherrill has already issued seven walks in 4 2/3 innings.
The real problem for these struggling hurlers -- with the exception of Haeger -- has been the long ball, and that's actually good news for them. No one among this group has pitched as many as 16 innings, so subtracting one home run from each of their records goes a long way towards cleaning up their stat lines. When it's this early in the season, one bad pitch can truly put a dent in one's Fantasy value.
This is welcome news for Billingsley, Padilla and Haeger owners, but those who have rosters laden with Met and Pirate hitters may have to find another pitching staff to get fat on.
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Runs Created per 27 Outs (RC/27) -- An estimate of how many
runs a lineup would produce per 27 outs if a particular player
occupied each spot in the order; ex. the RC/27 for Miguel Cabrera
would predict the productivity of a lineup where Cabrera (or his
statistical equal) batted in all nine spots; created by Bill James Component ERA (ERC) -- An estimate of a what a pitcher's ERA would be if it were based solely on actual pitching performance; created by Bill James GO/AO -- Ground out-fly out ratio GB/FB -- Ground ball-fly ball ratio Batting Average per Balls in Play (BABIP) -- The percentage of balls in play (at bats minus strikeouts and home runs) that are base hits; research by Voros McCracken and others has established that this rate is largely random and has a norm of approximately 30% Isolated Power -- The difference between slugging percentage and batting average; created by Branch Rickey and Allan Roth Walk Rate -- Walks / (at bats + walks) Whiff Rate -- Strikeouts / at bats |
Al Melchior will be providing data-centric advice columns Fantasy owners all season. Click here to send him a question. Please put "Melchior" in the subject field.