In the third of four midseason positional updates (1Bs/3Bs, Cs), this week we will take a look at how middle infielders have fared this season and how the performances of some have compared to our expectations. In assessing the scarcity level of productive second basemen and shortstops, all players who are regulars have been included and placed into one of four categories: The Elites, The Stars, The Bubble Guys and The Duds. These groupings of players by position will show us how many are producing at the highest levels and, therefore, how much the top talent at these positions is worth as compared to their peers at other positions. We will also be able to gauge the production level of a typical player and compare that against the norms at other positions.

Before moving on with the analysis, here are just a few reminders of how we look at position scarcity here at By the Numbers.

  • Players at each position are initially ranked by their Runs Created per 27 Outs (RC/27) so far this season. I use this measure, because it incorporates the gamut of offensive events that are captured in Fantasy scoring (and then some). It is also a per-game metric, so players who are or have been injured are not penalized.
  • Initial rankings are then revised. Rankings for players who have not played much this season are adjusted based on their longer-term trends. Adjustments are also made for players whose performance this year is highly aberrant or not supported by skill indicators.
  • Players who have a primary position other than second base or shortstop, but who are eligible at either position, have been included. For those who are eligible at both second and short, they have been listed as shortstops for the purposes of the analysis. The median level of productivity for second basemen is considerably higher than for shortstops, so if a player is eligible at both, it is best to play him at shortstop.

Second Basemen

The Elites: It's no surprise to see Chase Utley on this short list of elites, but Dan Uggla and Ian Kinsler have both taken enormous leaps in their productivity that few expected. Both have increased their power dramatically, and Kinsler is managing this while cutting down his whiff rate (Uggla, not so much). With no other second basemen nowhere near this trio's lofty echelon, these three have to be considered among the most valuable players in Fantasy.

Player Walk Rate Whiff Rate Iso Power H/BIP Runs Created RC/27 Own %
Dan Uggla 12% 31% 0.322 35% 70 8.6 99
Ian Kinsler 9% 14% 0.209 36% 89 8.6 100
Chase Utley 10% 16% 0.294 29% 83 8.5 100

The Stars: The dropoff to the second tier is substantial, but each of these players is performing, or has the potential to perform, well above the norm for their position. The surprise player on this list is Alexi Casilla, but it is clear from his skill numbers that he belongs here. As of right now, his skill profile is not much different from Dustin Pedroia's. His excellent whiff rate and speed are consistent with his minor league numbers, and his walk rate is likely to improve. Only his Isolated Power seems a little out of place, as he has never gone over .100 at any level above Class-A. As a 23 year-old, this leap in development is not unfathomable either. There aren't many of these second tier performers to go around, so Casilla's availability in so many leagues is welcome news for the legions of owners stuck with one of the Bubble Guys or Duds listed further below.

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Player Walk Rate Whiff Rate Iso Power H/BIP Runs Created RC/27 Own %
Brian Roberts 11% 19% 0.196 35% 69 7.0 99
Mark DeRosa 12% 23% 0.171 34% 55 6.4 88
Dustin Pedroia 6% 9% 0.146 33% 65 6.1 99
Howie Kendrick 2% 18% 0.158 39% 29 5.8 79
Alexi Casilla 7% 10% 0.128 34% 32 5.8 36
B.J. Upton 16% 24% 0.129 35% 55 5.6 100
Brandon Phillips 6% 17% 0.198 30% 56 5.3 100

The Bubble Guys: These are the guys who are solid picks for AL-only and NL-only leagues but borderline rosterable in mixed leagues. Kelly Johnson and Robinson Cano were not expected to make this list, and given their almost universal presence in CBSSports.com leagues, at least one owner in practically every league appears to be expecting a second half comeback. Based on his performance from last year -- his first full major league campaign -- Johnson should be hitting for at least as much power and average as Mark DeRosa. There is no reason to think he can't do it in the second half, and he is one of the higher-ceiling bubble choices. Cano's performance has been more enigmatic. He has been a completely different batter this year, making more contact, hitting more flyballs than in the past, but with much less power. Perhaps he has made adjustments or fixed his mechanics recently, because he has hit better over the past month. Cano, however, has a ways to go before his production returns to the level of the second tier.

So who among the majors' second basemen is Joe Average? Who is the personification of Fantasy fringeness? That would be Akinori Iwamura, who has the median RC/27 score for second basemen of 5.1 and a uniquely run-of-the-mill skill set. Congratulations, Aki. You are the latest addition to the All-Mr. Bubble Team.

Player Walk Rate Whiff Rate Iso Power H/BIP Runs Created RC/27 Own %
Ray Durham 13% 19% 0.124 35% 43 6.0 13
Ty Wigginton 10% 16% 0.176 30% 33 5.9 36
Mark Grudzielanek 6% 11% 0.102 35% 42 5.6 15
Kelly Johnson 10% 21% 0.160 32% 49 5.5 92
Orlando Hudson 9% 16% 0.158 34% 50 5.5 84
Ronnie Belliard 13% 19% 0.245 23% 25 5.4 6
Akinori Iwamura 10% 20% 0.104 33% 51 5.1 45
Jeff Baker 7% 29% 0.200 34% 26 5.1 9
Placido Polanco 6% 7% 0.088 32% 46 5.1 87
Kazuo Matsui 9% 16% 0.084 33% 34 5.0 30
Mark Ellis 12% 13% 0.148 25% 45 4.7 53
Jose Lopez 4% 9% 0.115 32% 48 4.5 77
Rickie Weeks 11% 23% 0.152 26% 39 4.3 80
Jeff Kent 5% 12% 0.154 26% 33 3.9 57
Robinson Cano 4% 9% 0.114 26% 33 3.3 98

The Duds: These are the second basemen to be avoided if at all possible, even in AL-only or NL-only leagues. If you are wondering where all of the AL Duds are, remember that players who are also eligible at shortstop are featured on that list instead of this one. It appears that the junior circuit has a number of players who are so versatile, that they can perform below replacement level at a variety of infield positions.

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Player Walk Rate Whiff Rate Iso Power H/BIP Runs Created RC/27 Own %
Jamey Carroll 9% 17% 0.071 32% 27 4.5 4
Edgar Gonzalez 6% 24% 0.117 37% 21 4.5 5
Luis Castillo 14% 9% 0.069 28% 32 4.3 17
Aaron Hill 7% 15% 0.098 30% 24 4.0 25
Bill Hall 5% 13% 0.083 29% 8 4.0 31
Jose Castillo 7% 18% 0.157 30% 36 3.9 13
Tadahito Iguchi 9% 23% 0.084 33% 27 3.9 9
Adam Kennedy 7% 13% 0.074 32% 23 3.7 2
Freddy Sanchez 3% 13% 0.078 25% 26 2.3 32

Shortstops

The Elites: As I was making performance projections back in February, I wrote that Hanley Ramirez represented one of the most scarce and valuable commodities in Fantasy baseball. Here's the evidence. As he did last season, he is providing Manny Ramirez-type production (even better, actually) at a position where David Eckstein is the typical player. (Oops, I gave away the identity of the next Mr. Bubble.) Jose Reyes is also a cut above the rest, but at least in the first half, Hanley has been in a class all his own.

Player Walk Rate Whiff Rate Iso Power H/BIP Runs Created RC/27 Own %
Hanley Ramirez 11% 22% 0.255 35% 86 8.6 100
Jose Reyes 10% 12% 0.187 32% 72 6.6 100

The Stars: Jimmy Rollins' power has inexplicably fallen off a cliff in the first half, and while still very good, he has not been producing on an elite level. Even more surprising is that Ramon Vazquez and Clint Barmes have been performing at least as well as Rollins so far. Vazquez's .310 average will fall as his 38 percent H/BIP rate decreases, but behind that fluky rate are still some very good skill stats for a middle infielder. Barmes' power and contact numbers are even better than Vazquez's, and they are indicative of the type of performance he produced prior to the unfortunate and career-stifling Deer Meat Incident of 2005. It may seem crazy to rank Vazquez and Barmes ahead of Fantasy stalwarts Derek Jeter and Orlando Cabrera, but when you compare their skill and per-at-bat Fantasy stats, Vazquez and Barmes are clearly having more productive seasons. Like Alexi Casilla, both shortstops are widely available and more than good enough to be plugged into a mixed league lineup.

Player Walk Rate Whiff Rate Iso Power H/BIP Runs Created RC/27 Own %
Ramon Vazquez 11% 20% 0.165 38% 40 6.9 22
J.J. Hardy 10% 16% 0.195 31% 50 5.8 95
Carlos Guillen 11% 14% 0.150 31% 52 5.7 99
Michael Young 7% 16% 0.127 35% 58 5.6 99
Jimmy Rollins 9% 10% 0.163 28% 45 5.6 100
Clint Barmes 6% 17% 0.185 34% 29 5.5 47
Ryan Theriot 11% 10% 0.050 35% 50 5.3 87
Cristian Guzman 4% 8% 0.112 33% 56 5.3 88
Alexei Ramirez 3% 13% 0.151 33% 31 5.0 58
Miguel Tejada 5% 12% 0.150 29% 46 4.4 99
Jhonny Peralta 6% 21% 0.213 29% 44 4.4 86
Troy Tulowitzki 9% 15% 0.132 18% 9 1.8 57

The Bubble Guys: In addition to Jeter and Cabrera, Yunel Escobar has been an unpleasant surprise this year. His skill stats are not much better than the bubblelicious Eckstein's, and as a result, his batting average and runs scored are down significantly from '07. Whether it's these three underachievers, or the usual bubble suspects, like Eckstein or Jack Wilson, your typical major league shortstop is a contact hitter with minimal power. Stephen Drew and Mike Aviles are exceptions, but over the long haul, both will hit for a lower average due to their higher whiff rates. Nick Punto and Jerry Hairston can provide steals, but neither will sustain their current high batting averages, as their aberrant H/BIP and Isolated Power numbers are due to come crashing down.

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Player Walk Rate Whiff Rate Iso Power H/BIP Runs Created RC/27 Own %
Jerry Hairston 7% 14% 0.145 40% 40 8.2 47
Nick Punto 10% 15% 0.147 37% 18 6.1 5
Mike Aviles 4% 16% 0.181 33% 19 4.8 43
Stephen Drew 5% 18% 0.199 29% 46 4.8 90
Derek Jeter 7% 12% 0.112 32% 46 4.6 99
Jeff Keppinger 8% 4% 0.095 29% 28 4.6 30
Erick Aybar 3% 14% 0.108 32% 27 4.5 20
Yunel Escobar 10% 13% 0.096 32% 42 4.5 91
Damion Easley 6% 11% 0.096 32% 22 4.4 3
David Eckstein 9% 10% 0.082 30% 27 4.3 9
Jack Wilson 5% 8% 0.061 33% 20 4.3 8
Orlando Cabrera 9% 12% 0.095 29% 47 4.2 92

The Duds: There are an awful lot of shortstops you need to avoid, but keep in mind that several of these players -- from Aaron Miles to Donnie Murphy to the Izturises -- are eligible at other positions. Then again, if someone like Brendan Ryan isn't hitting enough to be rostered as a shortstop, he'd do you about as much good as Buddy Ryan if you put him at third base. Though this may be a shock to his many owners, Edgar Renteria fits nicely into this group. Note how unfavorably his skill and per-at-bat Fantasy numbers compare with that of Maicer Izturis. Then start scouring the waiver wire to see if Ramon Vazquez, Clint Barmes or Alexei Ramirez is available as a replacement.

Player Walk Rate Whiff Rate Iso Power H/BIP Runs Created RC/27 Own %
Emmanuel Burriss 7% 11% 0.054 32% 14 4.4 1
Aaron Miles 6% 9% 0.055 34% 26 4.2 5
Marco Scutaro 11% 15% 0.063 30% 33 4.2 9
Brendan Harris 7% 23% 0.116 32% 35 4.0 15
Maicer Izturis 8% 9% 0.077 29% 27 3.9 15
Bobby Crosby 8% 17% 0.115 30% 38 3.9 37
Julio Lugo 12% 20% 0.061 33% 31 3.9 26
Cesar Izturis 8% 5% 0.066 25% 22 3.6 3
Omar Quintanilla 5% 20% 0.106 31% 17 3.6 1
Nomar Garciaparra 11% 5% 0.140 21% 6 3.2 24
Yuniesky Betancourt 2% 6% 0.108 28% 30 3.2 32
Jason Bartlett 5% 15% 0.037 30% 25 3.1 11
Edgar Renteria 7% 12% 0.072 28% 28 3.1 74
Khalil Greene 6% 25% 0.115 27% 31 3.0 49
Donnie Murphy 10% 36% 0.132 26% 9 3.0 0
Brendan Ryan 6% 17% 0.044 30% 14 2.9 1
Felipe Lopez 9% 16% 0.079 27% 26 2.9 19
Adam Everett 6% 12% 0.135 20% 6 2.6 1
Brandon Fahey 2% 15% 0.115 27% 4 2.3 0
Omar Vizquel 9% 11% 0.020 17% 6 1.3 2

The conventional wisdom is that middle infield production is the hardest to find. While there are a fair number of second-tier shortstops available, there is less second-tier talent at second base than at any other position we have reviewed so far. So not only are Utley, Kinsler and Uggla especially valuable, but so are Brian Roberts, Dustin Pedroia and others of their ilk.

Conventional thinking about middle infielders holds up even better when considering the value of the Bubble Guys. Not surprisingly, the median RC/27 is lower for the middle infield positions than for the corner infield positions. The gap will probably grow in the second half, as long as several of the slow-starting first basemen start to pick up their pace in the final three months. This may seem like common sense, but the implication is not so obvious. Though an average corner infielder like Casey Blake will produce far more than someone like Eckstein, he is not really any harder to replace. If this were more apparent, Eckstein would be owned in far more than nine percent of our leagues, and Blake would be owned in far fewer than 57 percent.

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Position Median RC/27 Mr. Bubble
Catcher 4.3 Gregg Zaun
First Base 5.2 James Loney
Second Base 5.1 Akinori Iwamura
Third Base 5.5 Casey Blake
Shortstop 4.3 David Eckstein

The last installment of this series will cover Fantasy outfielders, which will be in this space in the coming weeks. Meanwhile, enjoy the All-Star break and the (mostly) elite talent that will be on display.

Runs Created per 27 Outs (RC/27) -- An estimate of how many runs a lineup would produce per 27 outs if a particular player occupied each spot in the order; ex. the RC/27 for Miguel Cabrera would predict the productivity of a lineup where Cabrera (or his statistical equal) batted in all nine spots; created by Bill James
Component ERA (ERC) -- An estimate of a what a pitcher's ERA would be if it were based solely on actual pitching performance; created by Bill James
Base Hits per Balls in Play (H/BIP) -- The percentage of balls in play (at bats minus strikeouts and home runs) that are base hits; research by Voros McCracken and others has established that this rate is largely random and has a norm of approximately 30%
Isolated Power -- The difference between slugging percentage and batting average; created by Branch Rickey and Allan Roth
Walk Rate -- Walks / (at bats + walks)
Whiff Rate -- Strikeouts / at bats

Al Melchior was recently a Fantasy columnist and data analyst for Baseball HQ and will be providing advice columns for CBSSports.com. Click here to send him a question. Please put "Melchior" in the subject field.