Prior to the season, I made RC/27 projections for all of the expected starters at each position. One thing that was confirmed by this exercise is that catching talent is the hardest offensive talent to find. While even mediocre first basemen, outfielders and designated hitters were expected to register RC/27 scores over 6.0, just five major league catchers were projected to exceed that mark. Meanwhile, a lineup consisting only of typical catchers -- let's name them Gregg Zaun I, Gregg Zaun II, and so on -- could be counted on to produce only 4.7 runs per 27 outs.

Many of the preseason projections for catchers were pretty much on target. Russell Martin, Joe Mauer, Chris Snyder, Jason Varitek, Mike Napoli and A.J. Pierzynski are all performing at or near their predicted levels. The same could be said for Ivan Rodriguez, Yadier Molina and Matt Treanor, though that's not especially good news for these lower tier backstops. For Fantasy owners, the big story is the many surprises among the catching corps so far this year. The elites, such as Martin, McCann and Mauer, have been joined by some unexpected names like Navarro, Olivo and Molina (but not Yadier or Jose). Does this mean that productive catchers are less scarce, and therefore less valuable, than we expected? Or have the disappointing performances of players like Victor Martinez and Kenji Johjima made good hitting catchers all the more valuable?

In this first of several analyses of productivity by position, we will reevalute the distribution of offensive output among major league catchers. In looking at the full range of Fantasy options, we will focus on three sets of players: the "Pleasant Surprises" who have unexpectedly produced at a high level; the "Ordinary Joes" who represent the least productive players you could reasonably keep on a standard mixed league roster; and the "Disappointments" who we thought would clearly be rosterable, but have been questionable roster choices so far.

The Pleasant Surprises

While the Ordinary Joes are doing their part to keep catchers marginal in the Fantasy world, others are doing their best to glamorize their position. Bengie Molina has shocked Fantasy leaguers by raking third among major league catchers in Fantasy Rating, fourth in Runs Created and eighth in RC/27. His surge from the middle of the pack can be attributed to a whiff rate that has gone from good (11 percent in 2006 and 2007) to great (7 percent) and a H/BIP rate (32 percent) that is four percentage points above his recent norms. Dioner Navarro has also made waves with a .352 average and 5.8 RC/27, though he is leaning heavily on a 39 percent H/BIP rate.

It would be hard to call Geovanny Soto a surprise, because we anticipated good things from him, but he has still greatly exceeded expectations. He leads all catchers in Runs Created and trails only Brian McCann in the Fantasy Ratings for catchers. There are several other catchers who are genuine surprises, but their value is limited due to shared playing time or injury. Chris Coste, Ryan Doumit, Jesus Flores, Rod Barajas, Chris Iannetta and Miguel Olivo are all in the top 10 among catchers in RC/27 and have scores of at least 6.0 runs per 27 outs, but none had accumulated more than 120 AB through the end of May.

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2008 Top Tier Catchers
Player Walk Rate Whiff Rate Iso Power H/BIP Runs Created RC/27
Chris Coste 7% 13% 0.237 34% 22 8.9
Ryan Doumit 5% 14% 0.223 37% 23 8.8
Jesus Flores 9% 28% 0.235 45% 15 8.8
Geovany Soto 14% 27% 0.258 37% 42 8.4
Brian McCann 10% 12% 0.266 32% 41 8.1
Russell Martin 16% 15% 0.109 36% 36 6.9
Rod Barajas 7% 16% 0.234 31% 17 6.7
Bengie Molina 4% 7% 0.183 32% 31 6.2
Chris Iannetta 8% 30% 0.247 35% 15 6.1
Miguel Olivo 4% 26% 0.252 35% 20 6.0
Jarrod Saltalamacchia 19% 32% 0.167 31% 10 5.9
Dioner Navarro 6% 12% 0.088 39% 19 5.8
Joe Mauer 13% 8% 0.072 34% 28 5.7
Chris Snyder 12% 33% 0.200 36% 23 5.7
Jason Varitek 9% 25% 0.192 32% 25 5.6

The Ordinary Joes

In the preseason, I projected the median catcher to have an RC/27 score of 4.7, which was just a shade lower than the projected productivity level of the median shortstop. In other words, I wasn't expecting much from the typical catcher. Now that two months of stats are in, it appears that I made the right call on who the median catcher would be. Gregg Zaun is in fact setting the standard for normality, but he is doing it a bit lower than I expected, at 4.3 RC/27. Other catchers playing themselves onto the cusp of rosterability include Jason Kendall, Gerald Laird and John Buck. In fact, Laird and Buck are not only near the median in terms of overall productivity, but also in terms of their skill profiles. These most ordinary of Joes are both very close to the catcher medians for walk rate (8 percent), whiff rate (17 percent), Isolated Power (.121) and H/BIP (31 percent). Due to their very ordinary skill levels, Zaun, Laird and Buck typify the problem with rostering an average catcher. All three are being pushed by backups -- Rod Barajas, Jarrod Saltalamacchia and Miguel Olivo, respectively -- who have skills sets that may be even better than theirs.
2008 Middle Tier Catchers
Player Walk Rate Whiff Rate Iso Power H/BIP Runs Created RC/27
Mike Napoli 10% 30% 0.277 21% 18 5.1
A.J. Pierzynski 6% 11% 0.141 31% 25 5.1
Gerald Laird 7% 19% 0.124 31% 19 4.6
Jorge Posada 5% 18% 0.175 35% 8 4.6
Gregg Zaun 12% 12% 0.096 29% 16 4.4
Jason Kendall 8% 8% 0.081 28% 21 4.3
Paul Bako 10% 29% 0.158 32% 17 4.3
Yadier Molina 9% 5% 0.077 30% 20 4.2
John Buck 9% 20% 0.117 31% 15 3.9
Matt Treanor 5% 24% 0.064 35% 12 3.9

The Disappointments

If you have been wondering who Dioner Navarro switched bodies with prior to this season, we have found your man. We don't actually have evidence yet of Victor Martinez stealing Navarro's body, but we're pretty sure he stole his OPS (.684). Navarro's .831 OPS certainly looks like it belongs to Martinez. We can't blame Martinez's slump on bad luck, because he is getting base hits on every third ball in play. It's a power outage, plain and simple. Martinez has been suffering from a hamstring injury and that could be affecting his power. His owners can hope that his hamstring and power numbers will both recover, but in the mean time, there is one less catcher among the ranks of the elite.

Others holding down the lower ranks in offensive production are Kenji Johjima, Carlos Ruiz and J.R. Towles. All three catchers currently have RC/27 scores below 3.0, and each has lost at least 1.5 runs per 27 outs worth of production since last year. Johjima and Ruiz have caught the No Power Virus from Martinez, while Towles has been stricken with an inexplicable case of Nohitsdroppin (16 percent H/BIP).

2008 Bottom Tier Catchers
Player Walk Rate Whiff Rate Iso Power H/BIP Runs Created RC/27
Victor Martinez 6% 11% 0.060 33% 18 3.8
Brian Schneider 10% 17% 0.065 30% 13 3.6
Ivan Rodriguez 4% 17% 0.114 30% 17 3.2
Ronny Paulino 9% 19% 0.101 26% 10 3.1
Jeff Mathis 7% 26% 0.148 23% 8 3.1
Kurt Suzuki 7% 14% 0.052 30% 17 3.0
Ramon Hernandez 5% 14% 0.131 23% 13 2.9
Kenji Johjima 4% 9% 0.085 24% 14 2.8
Carlos Ruiz 7% 11% 0.063 25% 11 2.8
Mike Rabelo 7% 20% 0.083 25% 7 2.6
J.R. Towles 11% 25% 0.137 16% 9 2.5
Josh Bard 10% 14% 0.062 23% 10 2.5
Luke Carlin 11% 44% 0.073 30% 3 2.2
Yorvit Torrealba 4% 18% 0.113 26% 9 2.2
Jose Molina 2% 16% 0.100 26% 7 1.9

After looking at the performances of catchers throughout the big leagues from top to bottom, the supply of productive catchers appears more plentiful than it did back in March. While Martinez and Johjima have disappeared, at least temporarily, from the ranks of must-own catchers, Molina, Doumit, Iannetta and Olivo have all taken big steps forward that are supported by real improvement in their skills. Soto will probably not continue to be as good as he's been, Towles will certainly improve, and both should represent an long-term improvement over the players they are replacing in the catcher pool (Michael Barrett and Brad Ausmus).

Whereas just a couple of months ago, owners would have paid dearly to get Martin, McCann or Martinez as their No. 1 catcher, now it's time to revise our assessment of the catching pool for this year and next. The arrival of some young talent and the improvement shown by some seasoned vets has lowered the value of the established elite, but gives owners a broader range of options for getting productivity from the catching position.

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Runs Created per 27 Outs (RC/27) -- An estimate of how many runs a lineup would produce per 27 outs if a particular player occupied each spot in the order; ex. the RC/27 for Miguel Cabrera would predict the productivity of a lineup where Cabrera (or his statistical equal) batted in all nine spots; created by Bill James
Component ERA (ERC) -- An estimate of a what a pitcher's ERA would be if it were based solely on actual pitching performance; created by Bill James
Base Hits per Balls in Play (H/BIP) -- The percentage of balls in play (at bats minus strikeouts and home runs) that are base hits; research by Voros McCracken and others has established that this rate is largely random and has a norm of approximately 30%
Isolated Power -- The difference between slugging percentage and batting average; created by Branch Rickey and Allan Roth
Walk Rate -- Walks / (at bats + walks)
Whiff Rate -- Strikeouts / at bats

Al Melchior was recently a Fantasy columnist and data analyst for Baseball HQ and will be providing advice columns for CBSSports.com. Click here to send him a question. Please put "Melchior" in the subject field.