Dodger fans, cue up the violins. A scan of this week's "Unlucky Pitchers" column tells a sad story about your beloved team. Each of the Dodgers' top three starters has an H/BIP of at least 33 percent, and each has an ERA that is at least 0.30 higher than ERC says it should be. Even Jonathan Broxton, setup man extraordinaire, is sporting an unseemly 5.29 ERA and 1.35 WHIP, thanks to an outrageous 37 percent H/BIP. This quartet has yielded 176 hits in just 166 1/3 combined innings. If they can try to turn Coors Field into Dodger Stadium, then why can't these guys turn Dodger Stadium into Coors Field?
Could this possibly be a coincidence or is something rotten going on in Chavez Ravine? The Dodgers are not a particularly poor defensive team, failing to reach its share of hit balls. Even if they were, it would hard to explain the favorable H/BIP rates compiled by Chan Ho Park (24 percent), Esteban Loaiza (26 percent) and Hiroki Kuroda (28 percent). Brad Penny, Derek Lowe, Chad Billingsley and Broxton appear to be truly snakebit, and therefore, should rebound soon.
The Dodgers pitchers have something in common with Angels' catcher Mike Napoli. Despite the bad luck befalling their key performers, the Dodgers' pitching staff is fifth in the National League in ERA and batting average against (through Saturday). With his measly 23 percent H/BIP, Napoli has still emerged as one of the better Fantasy catchers in the American League. He leads all AL backstops in home runs, RBI and steals. With a H/BIP rate more befitting someone with his power, Napoli would likely be higher in the rankings for batting average and runs. As with the Dodger pitchers, better things should be in store for Napoli.
In case anyone is wondering what Greg Maddux is doing on the "Good Stats, Good Skills" list when his ERA is barely below 4.00, note that his ERC suggests that his ERA could be in the mid-3.00s. His 30 percent H/BIP rate and 3.4 K/BB ratio also show that a sub-4.00 ERA for Maddux is not a fluke, and that he could still be a relevant option for owners in mixed leagues.
All statistics are for season-to-date performances through Saturday, May 17.
'Lucky' Hitters | H/BIP | RC/27 | 'Lucky' Pitchers | H/BIP | ERC |
Dioner Navarro, C, Tampa Bay | 42% | 6.4 | Tyler Yates, RP, Pittsburgh | 21% | 4.56 |
Justin Upton, OF, Arizona | 41% | 8.0 | Erik Bedard, SP, Seattle | 23% | 3.64 |
Aaron Rowand, OF, San Francisco | 41% | 8.0 | Francisco Cordero, RP, Cincinnati | 23% | 2.95 |
Ryan Ludwick, OF, St. Louis | 40% | 11.5 | Juan Cruz, RP, Arizona | 24% | 3.79 |
Gregor Blanco, OF, Atlanta | 40% | 6.3 | Chan Ho Park, SP, L.A. Dodgers | 24% | 3.94 |
Geovany Soto, C, Chicago Cubs | 39% | 11.1 | Ryan Franklin, RP, St. Louis | 24% | 2.44 |
Ramon Vazquez, 3B, Texas | 39% | 7.9 | Brian Bass, RP, Minnesota | 24% | 5.17 |
Clint Barmes, SS, Colorado | 39% | 7.9 | Tim Wakefield, SP, Boston | 26% | 4.71 |
Brandon Boggs, OF, Texas | 39% | 5.1 | Fausto Carmona, SP, Cleveland | 27% | 3.99 |
Mark Grudzielanek, 2B, Kansas City | 37% | 5.9 | Aaron Cook, SP, Colorado | 28% | 3.31 |
'Unlucky' Hitters | H/BIP | RC/27 | 'Unlucky' Pitchers | H/BIP | ERC |
J.R. Towles, C, Houston | 13% | 2.6 | Jimmy Gobble, RP, Kansas City | 40% | 4.14 |
Jason Giambi, DH, N.Y. Yankees | 15% | 5.5 | Jonathan Broxton, RP, L.A. Dodgers | 37% | 3.75 |
Mike Cameron, OF, Milwaukee | 21% | 3.5 | C.C. Sabathia, SP, Cleveland | 36% | 5.01 |
Rickie Weeks, 2B, Milwaukee | 21% | 3.9 | Javier Vazquez, SP, Chicago White Sox | 34% | 3.31 |
Bill Hall, 3B, Milwaukee | 21% | 3.1 | Ross Ohlendorf, RP, N.Y. Yankees | 34% | 4.02 |
Robinson Cano, 2B, N.Y. Yankees | 21% | 2.4 | Chad Billingsley, SP, L.A. Dodgers | 34% | 4.03 |
Adam Dunn, OF, Cincinnati | 21% | 5.8 | Derek Lowe, SP, L.A. Dodgers | 34% | 4.24 |
Paul Konerko, 1B, Chicago White Sox | 23% | 4.2 | Randy Wolf, SP, San Diego | 33% | 4.14 |
Mike Napoli, C, L.A. Angels | 23% | 5.7 | Brad Penny, SP, L.A. Dodgers | 33% | 4.53 |
Jhonny Peralta, SS, Cleveland | 24% | 3.6 | Brett Tomko, SP, Kansas City | 33% | 4.29 |
Good stats, good skills - hitters | H/BIP | RC/27 | Good stats, good skills - pitchers | H/BIP | ERC |
Nate McLouth, OF, Pittsburgh | 30% | 9.0 | James Shields, SP, Tampa Bay | 29% | 2.63 |
Carlos Quentin, OF, Chicago White Sox | 30% | 8.7 | John Danks, SP, Chicago White Sox | 29% | 2.68 |
Jayson Werth, OF, Philadelphia | 30% | 8.2 | Edinson Volquez, SP, Cincinnati | 30% | 2.69 |
Jacoby Ellsbury, OF, Boston | 29% | 7.0 | Dana Eveland, SP, Oakland | 29% | 3.18 |
Stephen Drew, SS, Arizona | 31% | 6.5 | Greg Maddux, SP, San Diego | 30% | 3.64 |
Poor stats, poor skills - hitters | H/BIP | RC/27 | Poor stats, poor skills - pitchers | H/BIP | ERC |
Wily Mo Pena, OF, Washington | 30% | 2.0 | Brandon Backe, SP, Houston | 31% | 5.86 |
Jason Bartlett, SS, Tampa Bay | 32% | 2.6 | Odalis Perez, SP, Washington | 31% | 5.61 |
Matt Diaz, OF, Atlanta | 33% | 3.0 | Gil Meche, SP, Kansas City | 31% | 5.06 |
Felipe Lopez, SS, Washington | 31% | 3.7 | Matt Garza, SP, Tampa Bay | 30% | 5.06 |
Ivan Rodriguez, C, Detroit | 32% | 3.9 | Oliver Perez, SP, N.Y. Mets | 30% | 4.90 |
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Runs Created per 27 Outs (RC/27) -- An estimate of how many
runs a lineup would produce per 27 outs if a particular player
occupied each spot in the order; ex. the RC/27 for Miguel Cabrera
would predict the productivity of a lineup where Cabrera (or his
statistical equal) batted in all nine spots; created by Bill James Component ERA (ERC) -- An estimate of a what a pitcher's ERA would be if it were based solely on actual pitching performance; created by Bill James Base Hits per Balls in Play (H/BIP) -- The percentage of balls in play (at bats minus strikeouts and home runs) that are base hits; research by Voros McCracken and others has established that this rate is largely random and has a norm of approximately 30% Isolated Power -- The difference between slugging percentage and batting average; created by Branch Rickey and Allan Roth Walk Rate -- Walks / (at bats + walks) Whiff Rate -- Strikeouts / at bats |
Al Melchior was recently a Fantasy columnist and data analyst for Baseball HQ and will be providing advice columns for CBSSports.com. Click here to send him a question. Please put "Melchior" in the subject field.