As we move into mid-August, now seems like a good time to wrap up the "midseason" evaluation of position scarcity that I began back in early June. So far, we've learned that it has been an up year for catchers and third basemen, and a disappointing season for first basemen. We will finish up by seeing what kind of season major league outfielders are having.
The process behind this week's analysis is not much different than what we have done over the past three installments. All regular outfielders were ranked according to their current RC/27 scores and separated into four groups based on where there was a break in the distribution. Then some players were moved into different groups if their performances to date looked particularly fluky or aberrant. One difference in this analysis is that I will highlight only a few of the "Duds" (members of the least productive group) instead of providing the entire list. With 110 outfielders qualifying as regulars, that makes for a lot of productive outfielders, but it also makes for a lot of Duds.
As usual, we start our analysis by listing the best of the best.
The Elites: There are no surprises here, unless you are just waking up from a four-month slumber. In that case, you are trying to figure out how Ryan Ludwick got to be the third-most productive outfielder. I suppose it is something of an upset that Ludwick and J.D. Drew are actually unclaimed in two percent of CBSSports.com's leagues. If you could use some outfield help, you may want to take a second right now to check whether you are in one of those leagues. I'll wait.
| Player | Walk Rate | Whiff Rate | Iso Power | H/BIP | Runs created | RC/27 | Own % |
| Matt Holliday | 13% | 19% | 0.253 | 38% | 107 | 10.9 | 100% |
| Milton Bradley | 17% | 27% | 0.271 | 39% | 83 | 10.2 | 93% |
| Ryan Ludwick | 11% | 26% | 0.310 | 34% | 90 | 8.8 | 98% |
| Pat Burrell | 18% | 25% | 0.291 | 29% | 90 | 8.5 | 99% |
| Manny Ramirez | 12% | 22% | 0.247 | 35% | 86 | 8.2 | 100% |
| Grady Sizemore | 14% | 20% | 0.261 | 28% | 97 | 8.1 | 100% |
| Jason Bay | 13% | 22% | 0.236 | 33% | 91 | 8.0 | 100% |
| J.D. Drew | 17% | 22% | 0.251 | 31% | 76 | 7.9 | 98% |
| Carlos Lee | 8% | 11% | 0.255 | 30% | 90 | 7.7 | 92% |
| Carlos Quentin | 11% | 16% | 0.281 | 28% | 89 | 7.7 | 99% |
| Josh Hamilton | 9% | 20% | 0.247 | 32% | 94 | 7.6 | 100% |
The Stars: These outfielders are a cut below the Elite in terms of skills and production, but every one of them deserves a nice, comfy home in a mixed league. Overall, these players are getting the Fantasy love they have rightfully earned, but there are a couple of exceptions. Josh Willingham's skill profile is nearly the same as Brad Hawpe's, yet Hawpe appears in 40 percent more leagues. It's time for more owners to put the Hammer down in their lineup. And if that holds for Willingham, then the same is true for comeback "kid" Fernando Tatis. He may not keep up this pace all season, but he has already exceeded everyone's expectations and is still going strong. At least for now, he is hitting with Hawpe/Willingham power, but with a higher average than either of them.
| Player | Walk Rate | Whiff Rate | Iso Power | H/BIP | Runs created | RC/27 | Own % |
| Xavier Nady | 7% | 17% | 0.231 | 37% | 79 | 8.1 | 97% |
| Adam Dunn | 18% | 32% | 0.299 | 25% | 78 | 7.3 | 99% |
| Alfonso Soriano | 6% | 21% | 0.279 | 31% | 56 | 7.2 | 99% |
| Jermaine Dye | 8% | 20% | 0.262 | 32% | 80 | 7.1 | 99% |
| Nick Markakis | 14% | 19% | 0.183 | 34% | 85 | 7.1 | 99% |
| Johnny Damon | 11% | 14% | 0.140 | 36% | 72 | 7.1 | 94% |
| Ryan Braun | 6% | 21% | 0.287 | 33% | 90 | 7.1 | 99% |
| Ryan Church | 9% | 24% | 0.205 | 37% | 39 | 7.0 | 31% |
| Nate McLouth | 9% | 14% | 0.242 | 28% | 85 | 6.9 | 99% |
| Hideki Matsui | 11% | 12% | 0.135 | 35% | 46 | 6.9 | 41% |
| Curtis Granderson | 9% | 18% | 0.195 | 34% | 68 | 6.8 | 99% |
| Rick Ankiel | 9% | 24% | 0.258 | 31% | 66 | 6.8 | 91% |
| Brad Hawpe | 13% | 26% | 0.209 | 33% | 64 | 6.8 | 95% |
| Fernando Tatis | 6% | 23% | 0.202 | 36% | 32 | 6.4 | 42% |
| Josh Willingham | 13% | 24% | 0.203 | 32% | 39 | 6.3 | 68% |
| Magglio Ordonez | 9% | 12% | 0.173 | 33% | 66 | 6.3 | 99% |
| Carlos Beltran | 13% | 17% | 0.183 | 29% | 75 | 6.1 | 100% |
| Torii Hunter | 8% | 18% | 0.219 | 31% | 68 | 6.0 | 99% |
| Bobby Abreu | 10% | 19% | 0.184 | 33% | 74 | 6.0 | 99% |
| Vladimir Guerrero | 9% | 14% | 0.206 | 30% | 63 | 5.4 | 100% |
| Corey C. Hart | 5% | 18% | 0.206 | 32% | 67 | 5.4 | 99% |
The Bubble Guys: What follows is the very long list of outfielders who could easily merit a mixed league roster spot, but could just as easily be replaced by another name on the list. It's a good thing there are so many interchangeable No. 4 and 5 outfield types for mixed league owners. You lose a David Murphy to injury or an Andre Ethier to the bench, and you can plug in Jody Gerut, who is roughly as productive and still widely available. Jim Edmonds, Marlon Byrd and Ben Francisco are other potential mixed league options who are still available in at least three out of four of our leagues.
| Player | Walk Rate | Whiff Rate | Iso Power | H/BIP | Runs created | RC/27 | Own % |
| Denard Span | 13% | 16% | 0.150 | 37% | 29 | 7.1 | 27% |
| Jody Gerut | 9% | 17% | 0.174 | 31% | 44 | 6.2 | 5% |
| Adam Lind | 5% | 14% | 0.214 | 34% | 26 | 6.1 | 44% |
| Luke Scott | 11% | 21% | 0.236 | 28% | 59 | 6.1 | 45% |
| Brian Giles | 13% | 11% | 0.135 | 32% | 66 | 6.1 | 37% |
| Fred Lewis | 10% | 27% | 0.175 | 36% | 63 | 6.0 | 39% |
| Shane Victorino | 8% | 11% | 0.163 | 30% | 66 | 5.9 | 95% |
| Jack Cust | 19% | 42% | 0.206 | 32% | 60 | 5.9 | 32% |
| David DeJesus | 8% | 12% | 0.154 | 32% | 59 | 5.8 | 67% |
| Jim Edmonds | 13% | 23% | 0.239 | 27% | 44 | 5.8 | 19% |
| Ichiro Suzuki | 8% | 9% | 0.077 | 33% | 75 | 5.8 | 99% |
| Mike Cameron | 11% | 32% | 0.256 | 28% | 48 | 5.8 | 32% |
| Kosuke Fukudome | 14% | 22% | 0.132 | 33% | 64 | 5.8 | 91% |
| Raul Ibanez | 9% | 15% | 0.194 | 30% | 73 | 5.7 | 95% |
| Marlon Byrd | 11% | 16% | 0.169 | 30% | 39 | 5.7 | 11% |
| Matt Kemp | 8% | 28% | 0.168 | 38% | 66 | 5.6 | 95% |
| Randy Winn | 9% | 15% | 0.101 | 33% | 62 | 5.5 | 53% |
| B.J. Upton | 16% | 24% | 0.126 | 34% | 66 | 5.5 | 99% |
| Marcus Thames | 8% | 30% | 0.313 | 25% | 37 | 5.5 | 40% |
| Jason Kubel | 9% | 19% | 0.203 | 28% | 50 | 5.4 | 37% |
| Justin Upton | 14% | 35% | 0.191 | 33% | 44 | 5.4 | 38% |
| Skip Schumaker | 9% | 12% | 0.112 | 33% | 58 | 5.4 | 42% |
| Andre Ethier | 9% | 17% | 0.163 | 30% | 55 | 5.4 | 38% |
| Eric Hinske | 12% | 24% | 0.239 | 26% | 45 | 5.3 | 29% |
| Ben Francisco | 8% | 18% | 0.182 | 30% | 46 | 5.3 | 23% |
| David Murphy | 7% | 17% | 0.190 | 30% | 62 | 5.2 | 63% |
| Cody Ross | 8% | 23% | 0.227 | 28% | 47 | 5.2 | 33% |
| Jeremy Hermida | 9% | 27% | 0.175 | 32% | 60 | 5.2 | 76% |
| Ken Griffey | 14% | 18% | 0.177 | 26% | 57 | 5.2 | 84% |
| Aaron Rowand | 8% | 23% | 0.152 | 34% | 57 | 5.0 | 77% |
| Jay Bruce | 6% | 25% | 0.179 | 33% | 35 | 4.9 | 90% |
| Nick Swisher | 15% | 26% | 0.178 | 27% | 55 | 4.9 | 83% |
| Jacoby Ellsbury | 8% | 15% | 0.099 | 30% | 53 | 4.8 | 90% |
| Vernon Wells | 6% | 13% | 0.161 | 30% | 35 | 4.8 | 52% |
| Alex Rios | 7% | 20% | 0.140 | 34% | 61 | 4.7 | 99% |
| Carl Crawford | 6% | 14% | 0.125 | 30% | 55 | 4.3 | 99% |
In addition to being a source of back-of-the-roster outfielders, the Bubble Guys category also provides us with the esteemed winners of the outfield spots on the All-Mr. Bubble team. The median RC/27 for all regular outfielders is at 5.4, a stat that currently belongs to Jason Kubel, Skip Schumaker and the rehabbing Justin Upton. This trio joins the other borderline mixed leaguers on the All-Bubble squad, all of whom are listed below. The RC/27 scores are from the time when the midseason analysis was done for each position, though only the red-hot Casey Blake's numbers have changed significantly over the past few weeks. Not surprisingly, our Bubble outfielders are among the most productive members of this highly-replaceable mixed league squad.
| Position | Median RC/27 | Mr. Bubble |
| Catcher | 4.3 | Gregg Zaun |
| First Base | 5.2 | James Loney |
| Second Base | 5.1 | Akinori Iwamura |
| Third base | 5.5 | Casey Blake |
| Shortstop | 4.3 | David Eckstein |
| Outfield | 5.4 | Jason Kubel, Justin Upton, Skip Schumaker |
Notable Duds: The remainder of the regular outfielders may be just fine for AL-only and NL-only leagues, but they have no business on a mixed league diamond. Still, a number of these players are rostered in a majority of CBSSports.com’s leagues. In last week's Sliders column, Scott White tried to catalyze a market correction for the wildly over-owned Chris B. Young, but he is still owned in 90 percent of our leagues. Young isn't giving his owners anything they couldn’t get from Eric Hinske, yet the Rays’ outfielder is still available in 71 percent of CBSSports.com league. Likewise, Hunter Pence has somehow managed to stay on a roster in all but six percent of our leagues despite being just a shadow of his rookie self. And I just can’t figure out why the major league’s least productive regular outfielder, Jeff Francoeur (3.2 RC/27), is still hanging on in two-thirds of our leagues.
Over these four columns, I have identified some good buy targets and some players you need to move. Looking at the bigger picture, though, we can see the relative value of players at different positions. The increased depth of quality catchers and third basemen have weakened the value of the Russell Martins and Aramis Ramirezes of the Fantasy world, while the down year for first basemen has made someone like Mark Teixeira all the more valuable.
My preseason projection for the median level of outfield production was 6.0 RC/27, so at least in the middle ranges, it’s been a disappointing year for players at that position. Matt Holliday has been the top producer, as expected, but other anticipated elites, like Adam Dunn, Vladimir Guerrero and Carlos Beltran, have not met up to expectations. As much as most owners value top producers like Manny Ramirez, Pat Burrell and Grady Sizemore, it may be time to bump up our estimations of them by a notch, given the relative dearth of hyper-productive outfielders.
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| Runs Created per 27 Outs (RC/27) -- An estimate of how many
runs a lineup would produce per 27 outs if a particular player
occupied each spot in the order; ex. the RC/27 for Miguel Cabrera
would predict the productivity of a lineup where Cabrera (or his
statistical equal) batted in all nine spots; created by Bill James Component ERA (ERC) -- An estimate of a what a pitcher's ERA would be if it were based solely on actual pitching performance; created by Bill James Base Hits per Balls in Play (H/BIP) -- The percentage of balls in play (at bats minus strikeouts and home runs) that are base hits; research by Voros McCracken and others has established that this rate is largely random and has a norm of approximately 30% Isolated Power -- The difference between slugging percentage and batting average; created by Branch Rickey and Allan Roth Walk Rate -- Walks / (at bats + walks) Whiff Rate -- Strikeouts / at bats |
Al Melchior was recently a Fantasy columnist and data analyst for Baseball HQ and will be providing advice columns for CBSSports.com. Click here to send him a question. Please put "Melchior" in the subject field.