As anticipated, Chone Figgins was back in the Angels' lineup this weekend after being activated from the disabled list. News of Figgins' return created a rush of waiver activity, as he was added to rosters in 20 percent of CBSSports.com leagues for Week 12. Picking up Figgins looks like an astute move, since he has been enormously helpful so far in runs, batting average and steals. Should Figgins' inclusion on the "Lucky Hitters" list give owners a reason to regret adding him to their rosters? Just because Figgins somehow managed a 40 percent H/BIP for all of last season doesn't mean that he will repeat it this year. His rate is bound to decrease. However, the good news is that his whiff rate and Isolated Power are down from his normal rates, and they should improve with more at-bats. Any decline Figgins experiences in H/BIP will likely be offset by increasing power and contact. As long as his hammy holds up, so should his .300-plus average and other Fantasy stats.
A name that is notably absent from the "Lucky Hitters" list is Dioner Navarro. He finally got his H/BIP rate down to 35.6 percent, which is still high, but not high enough for our list. His owners have to be encouraged that, even as H/BIP spirals down to a more normal rate, Navarro has kept his batting average in the .320s. Though H/BIP has regressed towards his previous norms, his shockingly low whiff rate (11 percent) hasn't. Navarro has shown that he has made genuine progress as a hitter, so he will continue to be one of the top Fantasy catching options in the AL.
The news is also good for Marcus Thames owners -- both of you. The Tigers' OF/DH is seriously underappreciated in the Fantasy world; he is currently active in only nine percent of all CBSSports.com leagues. He already has 10 home runs, 25 RBI and 21 runs in just 109 AB, and his .538 slugging percentage currently ranks fifth among all AL outfielders with at least 100 at-bats. Thames has always had trouble holding on to a full-time job due to an inability to sustain a decent batting average, and once again his average is mired in the .240s, but his appearance on the "Unlucky Hitters" list is a signal that this is about to change. He has shaved about five percentage points off of his typical whiff rate while hitting with his usual power, so his skill trends point to an imminent increase in batting average. Thames should hit for an average in the .265-.275 range once his abnormally low H/BIP adjusts itself.
Kyle Lohse is probably not a name you expected to see on the "Good Stats, Good Skills" list, yet there he is with his 40 strikeouts in 88 1/3 innings. Fine, so power pitching is not on his skills resume, but Lohse has done a great job of avoiding walks (2.1 BB/9) and homers (0.5 HR/9). His close-to-normal 28 percent H/BIP shows us that he has come to his 3.77 ERA and eight wins honestly. In fact, his 3.12 ERC suggests he has even been a little unlucky and his ERA could drop further.
All statistics below are for season-to-date performances through Saturday, June 14.
'Lucky' Hitters | H/BIP | RC/27 | 'Lucky' Pitchers | H/BIP | ERC |
Jesus Flores, C, Washington | 43% | 9.0 | Justin Masterson, SP, Boston | 17% | 2.87 |
Jay Bruce, OF, Cincinnati | 40% | 10.7 | Jim Johnson, RP, Baltimore | 19% | 1.41 |
Chone Figgins, 3B, L.A. Angels | 40% | 6.5 | Gavin Floyd, SP, Chicago White Sox | 20% | 2.96 |
Matt Kemp, OF, L.A. Dodgers | 40% | 5.2 | Andrew Brown, RP, Oakland | 21% | 2.51 |
Edgar Gonzalez, 2B, San Diego | 39% | 6.5 | Francisco Rodriguez, RP, L.A. Angels | 22% | 2.23 |
Ramon Vazquez, 3B, Texas | 39% | 7.7 | Scott Olsen, SP, Florida | 23% | 3.27 |
Brandon Boggs, OF, Texas | 37% | 4.6 | John Lackey, SP, L.A. Angels | 24% | 2.32 |
Howie Kendrick, 2B, L.A. Angels | 37% | 4.3 | Homer Bailey, SP, Cincinnati | 25% | 7.68 |
Mark DeRosa, 2B, Chicago Cubs | 36% | 7.0 | Tim Redding, SP, Washington | 26% | 4.18 |
Ray Durham, 2B, San Francisco | 36% | 5.9 | Todd Wellemeyer, SP, St. Louis | 26% | 3.45 |
Unlucky' Hitters | H/BIP | RC/27 | 'Unlucky' Pitchers | H/BIP | ERC |
Cody Ross, OF, Florida | 19% | 5.0 | Rafael Betancourt, RP, Cleveland | 38% | 5.64 |
Mike Napoli, C, L.A. Angels | 20% | 4.5 | Andrew Miller, SP, Florida | 37% | 5.04 |
Omar Vizquel, SS, San Francisco | 22% | 2.2 | Randy Johnson, SP, Arizona | 34% | 4.41 |
Adrian Beltre, 3B, Seattle | 23% | 4.7 | Jarrod Washburn, SP, Seattle | 34% | 5.80 |
Robinson Cano, 2B, N.Y. Yankees | 23% | 2.5 | Shawn Hill, SP, Washington | 34% | 4.94 |
Marcus Thames, OF, Detroit | 23% | 6.1 | Aaron Heilman, RP, N.Y. Mets | 34% | 5.45 |
Jeff Kent, 2B, L.A. Dodgers | 24% | 3.2 | Andy Sonnanstine, SP, Tampa Bay | 34% | 4.40 |
Mike Jacobs, 1B, Florida | 24% | 4.8 | Javier Vazquez, SP, Chicago White Sox | 34% | 4.15 |
Jhonny Peralta, SS, Cleveland | 24% | 3.3 | Jonathan Broxton, RP, L.A. Dodgers | 34% | 3.14 |
Melvin Mora, 3B, Baltimore | 25% | 3.8 | Nate Robertson, SP, Detroit | 34% | 5.48 |
Good stats, good skills - hitters | H/BIP | RC/27 | Good stats, good skills - pitchers | H/BIP | ERC |
Grady Sizemore, OF, Cleveland | 28% | 8.0 | Cliff Lee, SP, Cleveland | 31% | 2.57 |
Nate McLouth, OF, Pittsburgh | 30% | 7.9 | Tim Lincecum, SP, San Francisco | 31% | 2.77 |
Chris Coste, C, Philadelphia | 32% | 7.8 | Joba Chamberlain, SP, N.Y. Yankees | 29% | 3.03 |
Luke Scott, OF, Baltimore | 31% | 7.0 | Kyle Lohse, SP, Cincinnati | 28% | 3.12 |
Ty Wigginton, 3B, Houston | 31% | 6.1 | Greg Maddux, SP, San Diego | 29% | 3.15 |
Poor stats, poor skills - hitters | H/BIP | RC/27 | Poor stats, poor skills - pitchers | H/BIP | ERC |
Brendan Harris, SS, Minnesota | 30% | 2.9 | Tom Gorzelanny, SP, Pittsburgh | 29% | 6.04 |
Adam Kennedy, 2B, St. Louis | 29% | 3.2 | Brandon Backe, SP, Houston | 29% | 5.97 |
Brad Wilkerson, OF, Toronto | 31% | 3.6 | Brian Burres, SP, Baltimore | 31% | 5.40 |
Franklin Gutierrez, OF, Cleveland | 30% | 3.6 | Mark Hendrickson, SP, Florida | 31% | 5.25 |
Elijah Dukes, OF, Washington | 31% | 3.9 | Garrett Olson, SP, Baltimore | 31% | 4.75 |
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Runs Created per 27 Outs (RC/27) -- An estimate of how many
runs a lineup would produce per 27 outs if a particular player
occupied each spot in the order; ex. the RC/27 for Miguel Cabrera
would predict the productivity of a lineup where Cabrera (or his
statistical equal) batted in all nine spots; created by Bill James Component ERA (ERC) -- An estimate of a what a pitcher's ERA would be if it were based solely on actual pitching performance; created by Bill James Base Hits per Balls in Play (H/BIP) -- The percentage of balls in play (at bats minus strikeouts and home runs) that are base hits; research by Voros McCracken and others has established that this rate is largely random and has a norm of approximately 30% Isolated Power -- The difference between slugging percentage and batting average; created by Branch Rickey and Allan Roth Walk Rate -- Walks / (at bats + walks) Whiff Rate -- Strikeouts / at bats |
Al Melchior was recently a Fantasy columnist and data analyst for Baseball HQ and will be providing advice columns for CBSSports.com. Click here to send him a question. Please put "Melchior" in the subject field.