Imagine you are in a tight race in a mixed league, and in your search for an edge in the pitching categories, you suddenly discover that you can get CC Sabathia for the stretch run for next to nothing. Of course, that's an absurd proposition, unless you happen to be in one of the three percent of CBSSports.com leagues where Sabathia is still on waivers. Yet there is a starting pitcher who has similar stats who is on waivers in 20 percent of our leagues and in a reserve slot in another 29 percent. This hurler currently has a 3.53 ERA and a 1.13 WHIP, both figures that could easily be confused with Sabathia's. Better yet, if you had this pitcher instead of Sabathia, you probably wouldn't sacrifice any wins, and his strikeout rate is lower by less than one K per nine innings. Even though he has earned a place on this week's "Good Stats, Good Skills" list, mystery pitcher Scott Baker isn't getting the Fantasy appreciation that the Brewers' new ace is, though they have practically been statistical equals this season. In roughly half of our Fantasy leagues, he should be easy -- or free -- to acquire.
While Baker has been added to teams in just three percent of CBSSports.com leagues in the past week, owners in 13 percent of leagues have scrambled to add the soon-to-be-activated Jeff Francis. Baker won't be any help to owners looking to fill a slot in NL-only leagues, but owners in all formats who are rostering Francis should take a second look at their options. His underwhelming 1.7 K/BB and 1.5 HR/9 rates have landed him on the "Poor Stats, Poor Skills" list. While Francis' K/BB is in line with his prior ratios, the home run rate is unusually high for him. With a healthier shoulder, maybe Francis can do a better job keeping the ball in the park, but given the sorry state of his stats, it is advisable to reserve him or pluck a more reliable option from the waiver wire.
With a flurry of trade deadline activity, the Pirates have shaken up their roster considerably. Based on some extreme H/BIP rates scattered throughout the Pittsburgh roster, we can also expect some fluctuations in the stats of some of their players. Two "lucky Bucs" who are likely to see some dropoff in productivity are Brandon Moss and John Grabow. New left fielder Moss is whiffing every third at-bat, so expect his .289 average to plummet. Grabow is currently part of the Pirates' closer committee, but John Russell may reconsider Grabow's role once his 26 percent H/BIP and 1.0 ground ball-to-flyball ratio rise to their normal levels. He is due for a much higher ERA and WHIP. "Irate Pirates," who have been cheated by bad luck so far, include Andy LaRoche and Zach Duke. Both players are rostered in fewer than 15 percent of CBSSports.com leagues, but both should improve enough to be useful pickups in NL-only leagues.
All statistics below are for season-to-date performances through Saturday, August 2.
'Lucky' Hitters | H/BIP | RC/27 | 'Lucky' Pitchers | H/BIP | ERC |
Ian Stewart, 3B, Colorado | 48% | 8.0 | Dan Wheeler, RP, Tampa Bay | 16% | 1.71 |
Brandon Moss, OF, Pittsburgh | 42% | 5.9 | Brandon Morrow, RP, Seattle | 17% | 1.76 |
Howie Kendrick, 2B, L.A. Angels | 40% | 6.3 | Justin Duchscherer, SP, Oakland | 22% | 2.07 |
Fernando Tatis, 3B/OF, N.Y. Mets | 38% | 6.6 | Justin Masterson, RP, Boston | 23% | 3.86 |
Fred Lewis, OF, San Francisco | 37% | 5.9 | Ryan Dempster, SP, Chicago Cubs | 25% | 2.78 |
Kelly Shoppach, C, Cleveland | 37% | 6.6 | Kevin Gregg, RP, Florida | 25% | 2.62 |
Mike Aviles, SS, Kansas City | 37% | 6.5 | Daisuke Matsuzaka, SP, Boston | 26% | 3.53 |
Denard Span, OF, Minnesota | 37% | 6.4 | Scott Olsen, SP, Florida | 26% | 3.95 |
Edgar Gonzalez, 2B, San Diego | 36% | 4.5 | Greg Smith, SP, Oakland | 26% | 3.65 |
Jed Lowrie, SS, Boston | 36% | 4.7 | John Grabow, RP, Pittsburgh | 26% | 3.77 |
Unlucky' Hitters | H/BIP | RC/27 | 'Unlucky' Pitchers | H/BIP | ERC |
Corey Patterson, OF, Cincinnati | 19% | 2.2 | Ramon Troncoso, RP, L.A. Dodgers | 42% | 3.36 |
Andy LaRoche, 3B, Pittsburgh | 19% | 2.6 | Clay Buchholz, SP, Boston | 36% | 5.61 |
Jonny Gomes, OF, Tampa Bay | 20% | 4.4 | Brian Wilson, RP, San Francisco | 35% | 4.39 |
Jeff Clement, C, Seattle | 21% | 2.6 | Nate Robertson, SP, Detroit | 35% | 5.80 |
Ronnie Belliard, 2B, Washington | 23% | 5.2 | Arthur Rhodes, RP, Florida | 35% | 2.79 |
Kory Casto, OF, Washington | 24% | 3.4 | Bronson Arroyo, SP, Cincinnati | 34% | 5.70 |
Mark Ellis, 2B, Oakland | 25% | 4.3 | Carlos Silva, SP, Seattle | 34% | 5.37 |
Edwin Encarnacion, 3B, Cincinnati | 25% | 5.7 | Zach Duke, SP, Pittsburgh | 34% | 5.64 |
Austin Kearns, OF, Washington | 26% | 3.2 | A.J. Burnett, SP, Toronto | 33% | 4.18 |
Eric Bruntlett, SS, Philadelphia | 26% | 3.4 | Glendon Rusch, SP, Colorado | 33% | 5.17 |
Good stats, good skills - hitters | H/BIP | RC/27 | Good stats, good skills - pitchers | H/BIP | ERC |
Chris Davis, 3B, Texas | 30% | 7.2 | Ramon Ramirez, RP, Kansas City | 31% | 2.49 |
Troy Glaus, 3B, St. Louis | 29% | 6.3 | Rafael Perez, RP, Cleveland | 29% | 3.24 |
Ramon A. Castro, C, N.Y. Mets | 31% | 6.0 | Matt Cain, SP, San Francisco | 30% | 3.30 |
David DeJesus, OF, Kansas City | 32% | 5.9 | Joel Hanrahan, RP, Washington | 29% | 3.33 |
Carlos Guillen, 1B, Detroit | 32% | 5.8 | Scott Baker, SP, Minnesota | 27% | 3.34 |
Poor stats, poor skills - hitters | H/BIP | RC/27 | Poor stats, poor skills - pitchers | H/BIP | ERC |
Michael Bourn, OF, Houston | 29% | 3.3 | Jeremy Sowers, SP, Cleveland | 31% | 5.90 |
Jeff Francoeur, OF, Atlanta | 27% | 3.3 | Brett Myers, SP, Philadelphia | 30% | 5.67 |
Daric Barton, 1B, Oakland | 28% | 3.3 | Jeff Francis, SP, Colorado | 31% | 5.51 |
Carlos Gomez, OF, Minnesota | 33% | 3.5 | Daniel Cabrera, SP, Baltimore | 29% | 5.04 |
Alex Cintron, 3B, Baltimore | 32% | 3.6 | Vicente Padilla, SP, Texas | 29% | 4.96 |
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Runs Created per 27 Outs (RC/27) -- An estimate of how many
runs a lineup would produce per 27 outs if a particular player
occupied each spot in the order; ex. the RC/27 for Miguel Cabrera
would predict the productivity of a lineup where Cabrera (or his
statistical equal) batted in all nine spots; created by Bill James Component ERA (ERC) -- An estimate of a what a pitcher's ERA would be if it were based solely on actual pitching performance; created by Bill James Base Hits per Balls in Play (H/BIP) -- The percentage of balls in play (at bats minus strikeouts and home runs) that are base hits; research by Voros McCracken and others has established that this rate is largely random and has a norm of approximately 30% Isolated Power -- The difference between slugging percentage and batting average; created by Branch Rickey and Allan Roth Walk Rate -- Walks / (at bats + walks) Whiff Rate -- Strikeouts / at bats |
Al Melchior was recently a Fantasy columnist and data analyst for Baseball HQ and will be providing advice columns for CBSSports.com. Click here to send him a question. Please put "Melchior" in the subject field.