One of the stranger lines in this week's "Lucky Hitters" table belongs to Matt Kemp. Everyone else on the list, from Justin Upton to Geovany Soto to Rafael Furcal, has an RC/27 score that is well above the norm for their position. Despite displaying above-average skill levels, the performance of these players has still been far above and beyond what their skills would indicate. Kemp, on the other hand, has an RC/27 score of just 5.7, which is on the low side for a corner outfielder. He is basically Brian Giles, but with a better lineup surrounding him. We know that Kemp has been a very good hitter in the past, so how can his underwhelming numbers (.344 OBP, 3 HR) be the result of good luck?

The answer is that, while Upton, Soto and Furcal have been lucky and good, Kemp hasn't been all that good this year. While never a contact hitter, Kemp's whiff rate is up to an alarming 27 percent. He is not compensating for all this hacking with more power. His Isolated Power has actually shrunk to .169, which is not a level you want to see from your right fielder. Kemp's .315 average and nine steals are bright spots, but if his increased Ks and decreasing power persist, expect Kemp to fall to the back of the Fantasy outfield pack. And worse still, he will lose playing time to Andre Ethier and a resurgent Juan Pierre.

At the other end of the luck spectrum is Marlins rookie hurler Burke Badenhop. For someone who has supposedly had some bad luck, he still has an awfully high ERC. It can't be that much of a relief for his prospective owners to know that his 6.31 ERA should really be "only" 5.50. However, his 21-to-10 K/BB ratio in 25 2/3 innings is quite good and may point to much better things very soon. If we pretend that the shaky first inning of his April 24 starts against the Braves never happened, his ERA is a more palatable 4.74. Now if we factor his 32 percent H/BIP rate back in, we realize that his ERA could be even lower, and we may have a pitcher who is a decent option for NL-only leagues.

The Pirates may not be as much of a surprise as, say, Badenhop's Marlins, but few expected them to be just below .500 at this point. Their potent outfield of Jason Bay, Nate McLouth and Xavier Nady has a lot to do with their early success. H/BIP says that two of these three hitters are for real, but which one is due for a descent? Hint: It's the one with the lowest career slugging percentage (.448) and the ridiculously high 39 percent H/BIP rate.

All statistics are for season-to-date performances through Saturday, May 10.

'Lucky' Hitters H/BIP RC/27 'Lucky' Pitchers H/BIP ERC
Chris Iannetta, C, Colorado 44% 10.6 Tyler Yates, RP, Pittsburgh 21% 3.81
Ryan Ludwick, OF, St. Louis 44% 12.2 Manny Acosta, RP, Atlanta 23% 4.16
Aaron Rowand, OF, San Francisco 44% 8.5 Justin Speier, RP, L.A. Angels 24% 6.48
Justin Upton, OF, Arizona 42% 8.4 Tim Wakefield, SP, Boston 24% 3.63
Gregor Blanco, OF, Atlanta 42% 6.7 Chan Ho Park, SP, L.A. Dodgers 24% 4.05
Matt Kemp, OF, L.A. Dodgers 41% 5.7 Paul Byrd, SP, Cleveland 25% 4.62
Geovany Soto, C, Chicago Cubs 40% 10.3 Oscar Villarreal, RP, Houston 25% 5.82
Xavier Nady, OF, Pittsburgh 39% 8.3 Juan Cruz, RP, Arizona 27% 3.89
Rafael Furcal, SS, L.A. Dodgers 39% 11.1 Chris Young, SP, San Diego 27% 4.71
Ryan Church, OF, N.Y. Mets 39% 7.6 Jeremy Bonderman, SP, Detroit 28% 5.65
'Unlucky' Hitters H/BIP RC/27 'Unlucky' Pitchers H/BIP ERC
J.R. Towles, C, Houston 14% 3.3 Jimmy Gobble, RP, Kansas City 39% 3.75
Jason Giambi, 1B, N.Y. Yankees 14% 5.2 Luis Ayala, RP, Washington 34% 4.29
Cody Ross, OF, Florida 18% 2.2 Duaner Sanchez, RP, N.Y. Mets 33% 4.18
Mike Cameron, OF, Milwaukee 18% 3.8 Jason Frasor, RP, Toronto 33% 3.92
Robinson Cano, 2B, N.Y. Yankees 18% 2.2 Javier Vazquez, SP, Chicago White Sox 33% 3.20
Corey Patterson, OF, Cincinnati 19% 3.3 David Riske, RP, Milwaukee 32% 4.32
Rickie Weeks, 2B, Milwaukee 20% 4.2 Burke Badenhop, SP, Florida 32% 5.50
Juan Uribe, 2B, Chicago White Sox 20% 2.8 Tony Pena, RP, Arizona 32% 3.51
Ryan Howard, 1B, Philadelphia 21% 3.2 Randy Wolf, SP, San Diego 32% 3.29
Ramon Hernandez, C, Baltimore 22% 2.7 Brad Penny, SP, L.A. Dodgers 32% 4.26
Good stats, good skills - hitters H/BIP RC/27 Good stats, good skills - pitchers H/BIP ERC
Nate McLouth, OF, Pittsburgh 31% 9.2 Scot Shields, RP, L.A. Angels 29% 2.37
Jason Bay, OF, Pittsburgh 32% 8.5 Chad Qualls, RP, Washington 29% 2.37
Brian McCann, C, Atlanta 30% 7.8 Edinson Volquez, SP, Cincinnati 29% 2.53
Dan Uggla, 2B, Florida 32% 7.4 Garrett Olson, SP, Baltimore 30% 2.68
Joey Votto, OF, Cincinnati 31% 7.2 Justin Duchscherer, SP, Oakland 29% 2.93
Poor stats, poor skills - hitters H/BIP RC/27 Poor stats, poor skills - pitchers H/BIP ERC
Wily Mo Pena, OF, Cincinnati 31% 2.2 Brandon Backe, SP, Houston 31% 6.06
Luis Hernandez, SS, Baltimore 30% 3.2 Dave Bush, SP, Milwaukee 30% 5.89
Lastings Milledge, OF, Washington 31% 3.3 Brett Myers, SP, Philadelphia 31% 5.77
Kurt Suzuki, C, Oakland 30% 3.6 Jeff Suppan, SP, Milwaukee 31% 5.55
Franklin Gutierrez, OF, Cleveland 30% 3.7 Oliver Perez, SP, N.Y. Mets 30% 5.41
Glossary
Runs Created per 27 Outs (RC/27) -- An estimate of how many runs a lineup would produce per 27 outs if a particular player occupied each spot in the order; ex. the RC/27 for Miguel Cabrera would predict the productivity of a lineup where Cabrera (or his statistical equal) batted in all nine spots; created by Bill James
Component ERA (ERC) -- An estimate of a what a pitcher's ERA would be if it were based solely on actual pitching performance; created by Bill James
Base Hits per Balls in Play (H/BIP) -- The percentage of balls in play (at bats minus strikeouts and home runs) that are base hits; research by Voros McCracken and others has established that this rate is largely random and has a norm of approximately 30%
Isolated Power -- The difference between slugging percentage and batting average; created by Branch Rickey and Allan Roth
Walk Rate -- Walks / (at bats + walks)
Whiff Rate -- Strikeouts / at bats

Al Melchior was recently a Fantasy columnist and data analyst for Baseball HQ and will be providing advice columns for CBSSports.com. Click here to send him a question. Please put "Melchior" in the subject field.