By the Numbers: Making a pitch to stick

Spring training is a time of renewed hope for baseball fans and Fantasy owners, but the same is true for the players who take the field. In just a few dozen at-bats, a hot hitter can go from anonymous non-roster invitee to potential major leaguer (see Jesus Guzman). For pitchers, the change in fortune can be even more dramatic. With a handful of well-pitched innings, a journeyman like Jose Capellan or Shane Loux can work himself into the race for a rotation spot.

It's easy to get excited over an out-of-nowhere preseason performance, but especially with pitchers and their non-existent spring sample sizes, it's best to just toss out those Cactus and Grapefruit League stats and look at the long-term picture. The statistical portraits of the six surprising roster candidates featured here vary greatly, but the Fantasy prospects for a couple of them are bright for 2009.

Jose Capellan, Houston: Once a promising young starter in the Braves' system, Capellan has spent the last four seasons jumping from organization to organization, trying to catch on as a reliever. During his odyssey, Capellan has struggled to maintain a strikeout rate that once exceeded one per inning. In fact, his K/9 rate has dropped each season since 2004. To make matters worse, Capellan's major league HR/9 rate is a whopping 1.5 over 123 1/3 innings. His record of decline notwithstanding, an opening for the fifth starter's spot in Houston, and 9 2/3 scoreless preseason innings without a walk have provided Capellan with his first real opportunity to be a big league starter. It sounds like a great comeback story, but I would still rather trust the past four years of lackluster stats rather than a handful of innings from exhibition play. Avoid, avoid, avoid.

Kei Igawa, New York Yankees: Like Capellan, Igawa has gone from also-ran to roster spot contender with a complete game's worth of scoreless spring innings. His recent major league stats are actually worse than Capellan's, with an ERA well above 6.00 and a WHIP above 1.70, which have been elevated by an excessive amount of homers and walks. As a Yankee, Igawa would be nothing more than a middle reliever, but even with a larger role, Igawa has no Fantasy value.

Jack Egbert, Chicago White Sox: A 10-inning scoreless streak has put Egbert on the map, and he is now in the mix for a rotation spot, along with Bartolo Colon, Jose Contreras and Clayton Richard. These are formidable candidates, but Egbert has some impressive credentials of his own. The former Rutgers hurler posted a 3.06 ERA, 1.13 WHIP, and a strong set of skill ratios in his first full Double-A season. Last year, pitching with bone chips in his elbow, Egbert had a rougher year in Triple-A, though he was still able to maintain solid strikeout and walk rates. The sinkerball pitcher did give up an uncharacteristic 15 homers in 129 2/3 innings. Having had the bone chips removed, Egbert seems to have picked up where he left off in '07. Egbert is someone to target if he wins a rotation spot, and is certainly a player to scout if he is sent to the bullpen or the minors.

Vin Mazzaro, Oakland: Another New Jersey product, Mazzaro had a spectacular campaign in Double-A last year, compiling a 1.90 ERA that was built on stellar control and a microscopic 0.2 HR/9 rate. The fact that Mazzaro is in the starting rotation conversation along with big-name prospects like Trevor Cahill, Brett Anderson, Gio Gonzalez and Josh Outman is a testament to his strong spring (2.61 ERA, nine strikeouts in 10.1 IP). Even if he earns a rotation spot out of camp, Mazzaro will be hearing footsteps, especially Cahill's and Anderson's, all season long. His relatively low strikeout rate puts him at a competitive disadvantage and will also limit his Fantasy value. Nonetheless, Mazzaro could still produce an ERA and WHIP low enough to make him a viable pitcher in AL-only leagues, so his progress is worth monitoring.

Shane Loux, Los Angeles Angels: Loux is the least likely of these spring success stories. He hasn't started a game at the major league level since 2003, and he was completely out of professional baseball just two seasons ago. With a Cactus League ERA of 0.84, Loux finds himself in the running for the last rotation spot, along with Dustin Moseley and Nick Adenhart. Loux's return is a great story, but as a low-strikeout pitcher, his control isn't quite good enough to be a worthwhile pickup for ERA and WHIP. In any event, he faces long odds in beating out Moseley and Adenhart for the job.

Chris Bootcheck, Pittsburgh: Bootcheck's 4.66 ERA in Grapefruit League play won't draw much notice, but he has managed to strike out 13 batters in just 9 2/3 innings. Looking back on last season and his 10.8 K/9 rate, there seems to be a trend. Unfortunately, it's a trend of a 29 year-old feasting on inferior talent over a limited number of innings. Bootcheck did have a decent 2007 season out of the Angels' bullpen, but those ratios, which represent his current upside, are still not the stuff of even an NL-only late-round reliever. Though the Pirates don't exactly have the deepest 'pen in the league, saves are a remote possibility with Matt Capps firmly installed as the closer.

Al Melchior was recently a Fantasy columnist and data analyst for Baseball HQ and will be providing advice columns for CBSSports.com. Click here to send him a question. Please put "Melchior" in the subject field.