For a team in the bottom half of the American League in runs scored, the White Sox have some great values on offense. Carlos Quentin leads the American League in home runs, is second in RBI and fifth in runs scored. Orlando Cabrera is in the top 15 in runs scored and stolen bases, and his batting average is due to rise. Jermaine Dye and A.J. Pierzynski are having solid seasons as well, and Alexei Ramirez provides versatility and a great nickname (The Cuban Missile).
Too bad you can't get Fantasy points for nicknames, but Ramirez really could prove to be a secret weapon for both the Sox and your Fantasy squad. Since Juan Uribe went down with a strained left hamstring, Ramirez has started nearly every game as the White Sox second baseman. Over that time, he is 8-for-28 (.286) with a .464 slugging percentage. At the time of Uribe's injury, Ramirez possessed a .143 average in 42 at-bats, which was depressed by a 17 percent H/BIP. His average for the season is still only .200, but with more playing time, he is starting to even out his H/BIP rate, which is now up to 21 percent. Ramirez is showing enough power, contact and speed for us to expect his average to continue its climb. He is worth a flyer in AL-only leagues and deeper mixed leagues, as he should play nearly every day over the next two weeks, if not longer.
Like Ramirez, Jason Giambi is finally moving his H/BIP and average in the right direction. Last Tuesday, he emerged above the Mendoza line for the first time all year, and as of Sunday, his average sat at .230. At this rate, Giambi's H/BIP will soon be at its normal mid-20s level and he will finally exit the "Unlucky Hitters" list, making room for some other unlucky contestant. This also means that Giambi is quickly approaching his usual place among the middle-of-the-pack first basemen. He is still available in roughly one-third of all leagues, so he is a viable option for those looking for an upgrade at 1B or utility.
How does a player make the "Good Stats, Good Skills" list when he is batting .229? In the case of Jarrod Saltalamacchia, it can happen when you trade base hits for a truckload of walks. Salty is currently the proud owner of a 21 percent walk rate and .393 on-base percentage. He isn't putting up monster Fantasy numbers yet, but with if you combine these great on-base skills with a potent power bat and regular playing time, Salty could rack up more homers, RBI and runs than any other AL backstop.
A month ago, I identified Conor Jackson as a player to sell. Fantasy owners were salivating at his 1.050 OPS, and this 26 year-old had "breakout" written all over him. However, there was little in his track record to suggest this kind of explosive growth. Jackson's OPS has since dropped to .875, and his skills set does support this level of production. His more modest stats still represent a growth year, and Jackson would be an upgrade over many first basemen. There is probably no shortage of owners disappointed with his May performance to date (.209 average, 1 HR, 9 RBI), so now you have a great "buy" opportunity.
All statistics below are for season-to-date performances through Saturday, May 24.
'Lucky' Hitters | H/BIP | RC/27 | 'Lucky' Pitchers | H/BIP | ERC |
Matt Kemp, OF, L.A. Dodgers | 42% | 5.7 | Renyel Pinto, RP, Florida | 20% | 3.00 |
Ramon Vazquez, 3B, Texas | 41% | 8.8 | Logan Kensing, RP, Florida | 22% | 4.14 |
Justin Upton, OF, Arizona | 40% | 6.5 | Daisuke Matsuzaka, SP, Boston | 24% | 3.13 |
B.J. Upton, OF, Tampa Bay | 39% | 6.3 | Vinnie Chulk, RP, San Francisco | 24% | 3.54 |
Dioner Navarro, C, Tampa Bay | 39% | 5.7 | Chan Ho Park, SP, L.A. Dodgers | 24% | 3.94 |
Aaron Rowand, OF, San Francisco | 39% | 7.4 | Juan Cruz, RP, Arizona | 26% | 3.68 |
Mark DeRosa, OF, Chicago Cubs | 38% | 7.4 | Justin Speier, RP, L.A. Angels | 26% | 6.76 |
Matt Treanor, C, Florida | 38% | 7.4 | Manny Acosta, RP, Atlanta | 27% | 4.53 |
Kosuke Fukudome, OF, Chicago Cubs | 36% | 7.3 | Shawn Chacon, SP, Houston | 27% | 4.45 |
Lyle Overbay, 1B, Toronto | 36% | 5.8 | Jeremy Bonderman, SP, Detroit | 28% | 5.35 |
Unlucky' Hitters | H/BIP | RC/27 | 'Unlucky' Pitchers | H/BIP | ERC |
J.R. Towles, C, Houston | 16% | 2.7 | Dallas Braden, SP, Oakland | 36% | 2.75 |
Jason Giambi, 1B, N.Y. Yankees | 21% | 7.1 | C.C. Sabathia, SP, Cleveland | 36% | 4.93 |
Corey Patterson, OF, Cincinnati | 21% | 3.2 | Jonathan Broxton, RP, L.A. Dodgers | 34% | 3.19 |
Alexei Ramirez, 2B, Chicago White Sox | 21% | 1.6 | Derek Lowe, SP, L.A. Dodgers | 34% | 4.48 |
Ramon Hernandez, C, Baltimore | 22% | 2.5 | Mark Buehrle, SP, Chicago White Sox | 34% | 4.68 |
Kenji Johjima, C, Seattle | 22% | 2.4 | Brett Tomko, SP, Kansas City | 33% | 4.78 |
Mike Napoli, C, L.A. Angels | 22% | 6.4 | Brad Penny, SP, L.A. Dodgers | 33% | 4.58 |
Eric Byrnes, OF, Arizona | 23% | 3.1 | Javier Vazquez, SP, Chicago White Sox | 33% | 3.09 |
Jhonny Peralta, SS, Cleveland | 23% | 3.6 | A.J. Burnett, SP, Toronto | 32% | 4.11 |
Orlando Cabrera, SS, Chicago White Sox | 24% | 2.8 | Shawn Hill, SP, Chicago Cubs | 32% | 4.05 |
Good stats, good skills - hitters | H/BIP | RC/27 | Good stats, good skills - pitchers | H/BIP | ERC |
Jason Bay, OF, Pittsburgh | 30% | 9.0 | Joey Devine, RP, Oakland | 30% | 1.64 |
Carlos Quentin, OF, Chicago White Sox | 29% | 8.3 | Edinson Volquez, SP, Cincinnati | 29% | 2.67 |
Conor Jackson, 1B, Arizona | 29% | 6.7 | Tony A. Pena, RP, Arizona | 31% | 3.13 |
Stephen Drew, SS, Arizona | 30% | 6.2 | Aaron Harang, SP, Cincinnati | 30% | 3.53 |
Jarrod Saltalamacchia, C, Texas | 29% | 6.2 | Zack Greinke, SP, Kansas City | 29% | 3.54 |
Poor stats, poor skills - hitters | H/BIP | RC/27 | Poor stats, poor skills - pitchers | H/BIP | ERC |
Lastings Milledge, OF, Washington | 29% | 3.0 | Jeff Suppan, SP, Milwaukee | 30% | 5.41 |
Franklin Gutierrez, OF, Cleveland | 30% | 3.1 | Jason Hammel, SP, Tampa Bay | 30% | 5.34 |
Omar Quintanilla, 2B, Colorado | 31% | 3.5 | Adam Eaton, SP, Philadelphia | 31% | 5.22 |
Yuniesky Betancourt, SS, Seattle | 29% | 3.5 | Brandon Backe, SP, Houston | 29% | 5.12 |
Felipe Lopez, SS, Washington | 31% | 3.7 | Carlos Silva, SP, Seattle | 31% | 4.88 |
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Runs Created per 27 Outs (RC/27) -- An estimate of how many
runs a lineup would produce per 27 outs if a particular player
occupied each spot in the order; ex. the RC/27 for Miguel Cabrera
would predict the productivity of a lineup where Cabrera (or his
statistical equal) batted in all nine spots; created by Bill James Component ERA (ERC) -- An estimate of a what a pitcher's ERA would be if it were based solely on actual pitching performance; created by Bill James Base Hits per Balls in Play (H/BIP) -- The percentage of balls in play (at bats minus strikeouts and home runs) that are base hits; research by Voros McCracken and others has established that this rate is largely random and has a norm of approximately 30% Isolated Power -- The difference between slugging percentage and batting average; created by Branch Rickey and Allan Roth Walk Rate -- Walks / (at bats + walks) Whiff Rate -- Strikeouts / at bats |
Al Melchior was recently a Fantasy columnist and data analyst for Baseball HQ and will be providing advice columns for CBSSports.com. Click here to send him a question. Please put "Melchior" in the subject field.