In the real world of baseball, there's something to be said for having a lineup of players who can consistently stretch out at-bats by sitting on pitches out of the strike zone or fouling off a series of two-strike pitches. A team's fortune can change simply by wearing down the opposing pitcher and getting a lesser hurler into the game. In Fantasy, though, is there any real value in rostering players who exhibit patience at the plate? In recently noting in this space within the past week that both Miguel Tejada and Kelly Johnson have been itchier at the plate this year and less productive, I started to wonder if this was merely coincidence.
It sounded like a research project to me. After analyzing the skill and production stats for the more than 270 major leaguers who have at least 30 runs created this season, it appears that patience is a virtue in Fantasy after all. Batters who average the highest number of pitches per plate appearance (P/PA) are more productive, as measured by RC/27, than those who average the fewest P/PA. In breaking down the skills that underlie these performances, you will find that the more patient batters hit for more power and, not surprisingly, they draw more walks. Of course, if you get more bases on balls by taking more pitches, the flipside is that sticking around longer during a plate appearance also means you are more likely to get strike three. The patient group of batters do strike out at a higher rate than their impatient counterparts.
So let's meet these paragons of persistence and archetypes of antsiness. In one dugout, we have Team Serene composed of the 15 players with the highest P/PA. Every one of these players draws a walk in at least 10 percent of their plate appearances, yet all but three strike out at least once for every five at-bats. This squad actually features some of the games premier strikeout artists, including Jack Cust, Adam Dunn and Mike Cameron, while only Luis Castillo has a whiff rate below 18 percent in this group. The roster also includes several players with exceptional power, while only Castillo, Kosuke Fukudome and Ramon Vazquez sport Isolated Power averages below .165.
| Player | P/PA | Walk Rate | Whiff Rate | Iso Power | RC/27 |
| Nick Swisher | 4.53 | 15% | 26% | 0.197 | 4.9 |
| Jayson Werth | 4.52 | 13% | 28% | 0.248 | 8.1 |
| Ryan Spilborghs | 4.46 | 16% | 18% | 0.184 | 8.1 |
| Chris Snyder | 4.40 | 15% | 29% | 0.209 | 5.5 |
| Adam Dunn | 4.32 | 19% | 32% | 0.280 | 7.4 |
| Jack Cust | 4.32 | 18% | 41% | 0.215 | 5.9 |
| Bobby Abreu | 4.31 | 10% | 18% | 0.165 | 6.1 |
| Kosuke Fukudome | 4.30 | 14% | 21% | 0.123 | 5.4 |
| Brandon Boggs | 4.30 | 14% | 32% | 0.179 | 5.0 |
| Ian Stewart | 4.29 | 12% | 35% | 0.227 | 8.4 |
| Jason Giambi | 4.28 | 15% | 23% | 0.265 | 7.2 |
| Mike Cameron | 4.28 | 12% | 31% | 0.275 | 6.9 |
| Ramon Vazquez | 4.27 | 11% | 22% | 0.144 | 6.1 |
| Fred Lewis | 4.26 | 10% | 27% | 0.165 | 5.9 |
| Luis Castillo | 4.26 | 14% | 10% | 0.065 | 4.3 |
When you add up the components of these skill profiles, what you get is a team full of above-average performers. The average RC/27 score for the players is 6.3, which would make someone like Bobby Abreu an average player in this lineup. Most of the players on this list are producing well above the average level for regulars at their position, and only Nick Swisher and Castillo have an RC/27 below 5.0.
Across the diamond is Team Twitchy, which consists of the 15 players with the lowest P/PA. Every single player on this team averages at least one fewer pitch per plate appearance than Swisher, who is the majors' choosiest batter. No one has crossed the 10 percent threshold for walk rate, and only Vladimir Guerrero has a rate greater than seven percent. However, nearly everyone is a contact hitter here. Only Carlos Gomez whiffs in more than 15 percent of his at-bats. While that bodes well for this team's batting average, contact hitters are rarely useful in Fantasy for more than one or two categories, unless they couple the skill with an ability to hit for power. Only Guerrero and Alexei Ramirez, however, are posting Isolated Power averages above .165.
| Player | P/PA | Walk Rate | Whiff Rate | Iso Power | RC/27 |
| Yuniesky Betancourt | 3.12 | 3% | 6% | 0.098 | 3.1 |
| Cristian Guzman | 3.14 | 4% | 10% | 0.113 | 5.1 |
| Bengie Molina | 3.20 | 4% | 8% | 0.139 | 4.0 |
| Alexei Ramirez | 3.23 | 3% | 13% | 0.182 | 5.1 |
| Aaron Miles | 3.27 | 5% | 8% | 0.074 | 4.7 |
| Erick Aybar | 3.29 | 4% | 14% | 0.107 | 4.4 |
| Pedro Feliz | 3.31 | 7% | 13% | 0.162 | 3.9 |
| A.J. Pierzynski | 3.33 | 4% | 13% | 0.145 | 4.8 |
| Vladimir Guerrero | 3.37 | 9% | 14% | 0.209 | 5.3 |
| Jeff Kent | 3.38 | 6% | 12% | 0.134 | 4.4 |
| Robinson Cano | 3.39 | 5% | 11% | 0.143 | 3.9 |
| Yadier Molina | 3.40 | 7% | 7% | 0.080 | 4.6 |
| Garret Anderson | 3.41 | 5% | 14% | 0.149 | 4.8 |
| Casey Kotchman | 3.41 | 5% | 7% | 0.144 | 4.3 |
| Carlos Gomez | 3.41 | 4% | 25% | 0.089 | 3.5 |
The end result is a roster of mostly AL-only or NL-only players. Only Guerrero, Ramirez, Cristian Guzman, A.J. Pierzynski and Bengie Molina are clearly worthy of consideration in typical mixed leagues.
Through this analysis of players at the P/PA extremes, we've established that there are notable differences between the most and least patient hitters in their propensities to walk, strike out and hit for power. (For those who are curious, all three of these variables, plus RC/27, correlate with P/PA at a statistically significant level.) It's a nice bit of statistical trivia perhaps, but how will it help you in Fantasy?
One Fantasy-relevant trend that sticks out is how a low P/PA looks to be a bad sign for players at the power positions. Everyone on Team Serene plays in the outfield or at an infield corner, except for Chris Snyder and Luis Castillo, whereas two-thirds of Team Twitchy plays either behind the plate or in the middle infield. Being a little jittery at the plate isn't keeping someone like Guzman or Molina from being a Fantasy favorite, because the bar for adequate mixed-league productivity is set lower at their positions. However, the Casey Kotchmans of the world can ill afford to take the hit in the power and on-base skills that correlate strongly with P/PA. As you build your roster, be wary of players like Kotchman, James Loney, Conor Jackson, Pedro Feliz, Vernon Wells and Jeff Francoeur, who consistently average well below 4.00 P/PA. They should be avoided in mixed leagues and, whenever possible, passed over for more selective batters in AL- and NL-only leagues.
If Rule No. 1 is to avoid players at power positions with low P/PA rates, then Rule No. 2 is that Rule No. 1 does not apply to Vladimir Guerrero. Vladdy is a statistical freak. It's a special player who can consistently flirt with a double-digit walk rate despite never averaging as many as 3.40 P/PA. And you've probably noticed he can hit for a little power, too. Carl Crawford is another outfielder bucking the odds by offering Fantasy value despite a lack of patience at the dish. Despite his jittery ways, he should rebound nicely next season as long as his power numbers and H/BIP return to their normal levels. While Rule No. 1 is not absolutely airtight, there aren't a lot of players like Guerrero and Crawford who are clear exceptions to the rule.
Likewise, just as you should downgrade most outfielders and corner infielders with low P/PA rates, you should give a bump to middle infielders and catchers who regularly post high ones. Fantasy owners have been skeptical of Ramon Vazquez this year, even when he was getting regular playing time earlier in the season. If he can claim a regular role and maintain eligibility at shortstop, he is worth another look for next year, because his 4.00-plus P/PA over the last two seasons could be a sign of more .300 hitting with RBI and run scoring potential. Chris Snyder, Kazuo Matsui and Akinori Iwamura are other patient hitters deserving of some additional consideration in '09.
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| Runs Created per 27 Outs (RC/27) -- An estimate of how many
runs a lineup would produce per 27 outs if a particular player
occupied each spot in the order; ex. the RC/27 for Miguel Cabrera
would predict the productivity of a lineup where Cabrera (or his
statistical equal) batted in all nine spots; created by Bill James Component ERA (ERC) -- An estimate of a what a pitcher's ERA would be if it were based solely on actual pitching performance; created by Bill James Base Hits per Balls in Play (H/BIP) -- The percentage of balls in play (at bats minus strikeouts and home runs) that are base hits; research by Voros McCracken and others has established that this rate is largely random and has a norm of approximately 30% Isolated Power -- The difference between slugging percentage and batting average; created by Branch Rickey and Allan Roth Walk Rate -- Walks / (at bats + walks) Whiff Rate -- Strikeouts / at bats |
Al Melchior was recently a Fantasy columnist and data analyst for Baseball HQ and will be providing advice columns for CBSSports.com. Click here to send him a question. Please put "Melchior" in the subject field.