When scanning the projections for outfielder productivity below, there doesn't appear to be much that is going to revolutionize anyone's draft strategy. The dropoff in quality from the top outfielders to the lower tiers is slow and gradual. Highly productive hitters (let's set the bar at 7.0 RC/27) are more plentiful at the outfield positions than at any other position, except for first. Seasoned Fantasy owners already know these things and, therefore, don't require CPR when they miss out on a Matt Holliday, Manny Ramirez or Adam Dunn. They know that with a little patience, they can hold out for Curtis Granderson or Nick Swisher and not lose too much outfield productivity while cashing in on elite pitching and middle infield talent.
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What probably sticks out in these rankings is the placement of some of the names. If Barry Bonds signs a deal, is he really still worth a top pick? Is Pat Burrell (7.8 projected RC/27) really that good, and is Nick Markakis (6.4) really that replaceable? Has the time finally arrived when Corey Hart and Milton Bradley (both projected at 7.5) are more than just punch lines to jokes about '80s pop and board games?
Sometimes the confusion over a ranking can be cleared up with three simple words: limited playing time. Remember that RC/27 is a per-game metric, and players like Bonds and Bradley are unlikely to get the playing time necessary to merit an early pick. It is still useful to have RC/27 data around at draft time as a reminder of the productive potential these players have, making them good bargain picks in later rounds.
In the cases of Burrell, Hart and Markakis, the market perception of these players is skewed because of the stock put in their most recent performances. Burrell has hit with more contact and power over the last two seasons, but it hasn't translated into more hits, runs and RBI, because of a random dip in his hits per balls in play (H/BIP) rate. He is overdue to build on his .281-78-32-117 season from 2005. Hart has also seen explosive growth in his skills and is due for a major breakout. Markakis, on the other hand, gets the benefit of the doubt because of his youth, but an inflated 34% H/BIP from 2007 suggests that this year could be a season of stagnation rather than growth for the O's right fielder.
When using the rankings below for a draft or auction, just be sure to supplement the trend data with your knowledge of the player's health and durability, as well as your league's scoring system. One-dimensional players, like Jack Cust and Jerry Owens, will obviously be more valuable the more that homers and steals, respectively, are weighted. This information will better enable you to gauge a player's impact on your roster in the coming year.
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| Player | 2008 Projection | 2007 | 2006 | 2005 |
| Matt Holliday | 8.8 | 9.0 | 8.0 | 6.7 |
| Manny Ramirez | 8.4 | 6.6 | 10.2 | 8.0 |
| Barry Bonds | 8.2 | 10.1 | 9.4 | 10.5 |
| Adam Dunn | 8.1 | 7.7 | 6.5 | 7.7 |
| Vladimir Guerrero | 8.0 | 7.9 | 7.7 | 8.2 |
| Grady Sizemore | 7.8 | 7.2 | 7.8 | 5.7 |
| Pat Burrell | 7.8 | 7.4 | 7.0 | 7.2 |
| Curtis Granderson | 7.7 | 8.0 | 5.3 | 5.3 |
| Brad Hawpe | 7.6 | 7.4 | 7.2 | 5.1 |
| Nick Swisher | 7.6 | 6.2 | 6.4 | 4.9 |
| Carlos Beltran | 7.5 | 6.9 | 8.8 | 4.9 |
| Corey Hart | 7.5 | 7.0 | 4.6 | 2.1 |
| Milton Bradley | 7.5 | 8.2 | 5.8 | 6.1 |
| Josh Hamilton | 7.4 | 7.2 | NA | NA |
| Ken Griffey | 7.4 | 6.6 | 5.0 | 7.8 |
| Jay Bruce | 7.3 | NA | NA | NA |
| Kosuke Fukudome | 7.2 | NA | NA | NA |
| Hideki Matsui | 7.1 | 6.6 | 7.0 | 6.6 |
| Alfonso Soriano | 7.0 | 6.8 | 7.1 | 5.9 |
| Matt Kemp | 7.0 | 7.2 | 4.8 | NA |
| Carlos Lee | 6.9 | 6.1 | 6.7 | 5.6 |
| Hunter Pence | 6.9 | 7.0 | NA | NA |
| Magglio Ordonez | 6.9 | 10.0 | 5.9 | 5.7 |
| Alex Rios | 6.8 | 6.6 | 6.4 | 3.8 |
| Jacoby Ellsbury | 6.8 | 8.7 | NA | NA |
| Moises Alou | 6.8 | 7.5 | 6.6 | 7.9 |
| Travis Buck | 6.8 | 6.3 | NA | NA |
| Vernon Wells | 6.8 | 4.2 | 7.1 | 5.1 |
| Carl Crawford | 6.7 | 6.3 | 6.5 | 5.8 |
| Jeremy Hermida | 6.7 | 6.5 | 4.3 | 9.1 |
| B.J. Upton | 6.5 | 7.0 | 3.3 | NA |
| Colby Rasmus | 6.5 | NA | NA | NA |
| Eric Byrnes | 6.5 | 6.2 | 5.3 | 3.7 |
| Ichiro Suzuki | 6.5 | 7.1 | 6.7 | 5.9 |
| Jack Cust | 6.5 | 7.6 | 4.4 | NA |
| Michael Cuddyer | 6.5 | 5.4 | 6.7 | 4.2 |
| J.D. Drew | 6.4 | 5.6 | 7.5 | 8.3 |
| Josh Willingham | 6.4 | 6.2 | 6.3 | 5.0 |
| Luke Scott | 6.4 | 6.2 | 10.8 | 2.6 |
| Nick Markakis | 6.4 | 6.1 | 5.5 | NA |
| Delmon Young | 6.3 | 4.2 | 6.0 | NA |
| Chris B. Young | 6.2 | 4.9 | 4.4 | NA |
| Lastings Milledge | 6.2 | 5.1 | 3.7 | NA |
| Adam Lind | 6.1 | 3.5 | 10.9 | NA |
| Aaron Rowand | 6.0 | 6.8 | 4.4 | 4.5 |
| Chris Duncan | 6.0 | 6.2 | 8.0 | 1.8 |
| Gary Matthews | 6.0 | 4.7 | 6.9 | 4.8 |
| Rick Ankiel | 6.0 | 6.2 | NA | NA |
| Ryan Church | 6.0 | 5.6 | 6.9 | 5.8 |
| Brian Giles | 5.9 | 5.4 | 5.3 | 7.8 |
| Geoff Jenkins | 5.9 | 5.0 | 5.6 | 7.0 |
| Shane Victorino | 5.9 | 5.6 | 5.2 | 6.0 |
| Torii Hunter | 5.9 | 5.6 | 5.4 | 5.3 |
| Bobby Abreu | 5.8 | 6.1 | 7.8 | 7.5 |
| David DeJesus | 5.8 | 4.7 | 5.9 | 5.8 |
| Johnny Damon | 5.8 | 5.6 | 6.5 | 6.6 |
| Mike Cameron | 5.8 | 5.0 | 6.2 | 6.1 |
| Dave Roberts | 5.7 | 4.7 | 5.9 | 5.1 |
| Jason Bay | 5.7 | 4.9 | 7.7 | 8.8 |
| Jason Kubel | 5.7 | 5.4 | 2.9 | NA |
| Justin Upton | 5.7 | 3.4 | NA | NA |
| Nate McLouth | 5.7 | 6.4 | 3.8 | 4.5 |
| Raul Ibanez | 5.7 | 6.0 | 6.4 | 5.6 |
| Rocco Baldelli | 5.7 | 3.3 | 7.0 | NA |
| Adam Jones | 5.6 | 4.2 | 2.0 | NA |
| Felix Pie | 5.6 | 3.4 | NA | NA |
| Jermaine Dye | 5.6 | 5.0 | 8.6 | 5.7 |
| Scott Hairston | 5.6 | 4.9 | 8.2 | 0.2 |
| Andruw Jones | 5.4 | 4.2 | 6.8 | 6.6 |
| Bill Hall | 5.4 | 4.4 | 6.3 | 5.9 |
| Carlos Gonzalez | 5.4 | NA | NA | NA |
| Randy Winn | 5.4 | 5.8 | 4.5 | 6.3 |
| Austin Kearns | 5.3 | 5.2 | 5.8 | 5.2 |
| Chase Headley | 5.3 | 2.3 | NA | NA |
| Jose Guillen | 5.3 | 5.7 | 3.4 | 5.6 |
| Kenny Lofton | 5.3 | 5.8 | 5.3 | 7.0 |
| Mark Teahen | 5.3 | 4.7 | 7.0 | 3.8 |
| Michael Bourn | 5.3 | 5.9 | NA | NA |
| Garret Anderson | 5.2 | 5.9 | 5.0 | 4.5 |
| Matt Diaz | 5.1 | 6.9 | 5.9 | 4.1 |
| Jeff Francoeur | 5.0 | 5.3 | 4.2 | 6.5 |
| Xavier Nady | 5.0 | 5.1 | 5.2 | 4.9 |
| Marlon Byrd | 4.9 | 5.8 | 3.5 | 4.2 |
| Melky Cabrera | 4.9 | 4.3 | 5.1 | 1.5 |
| Ryan Freel | 4.9 | 3.6 | 5.6 | 5.2 |
| Wily Mo Pena | 4.8 | 4.7 | 5.9 | 4.9 |
| Cameron Maybin | 4.5 | 2.2 | NA | NA |
| Carlos Gomez | 4.5 | 3.4 | NA | NA |
| Craig Monroe | 4.5 | 2.8 | 4.7 | 4.8 |
| Franklin Gutierrez | 4.5 | 4.9 | 3.3 | 3.2 |
| Willy Taveras | 4.5 | 5.7 | 4.3 | 4.2 |
| Juan Pierre | 4.3 | 4.4 | 4.7 | 4.2 |
| Mark Kotsay | 4.3 | 2.7 | 4.2 | 4.7 |
| Jacque Jones | 4.2 | 4.5 | 5.6 | 4.5 |
| Jerry Owens | 4.2 | 3.9 | 6.8 | NA |
| Jim Edmonds | 4.1 | 4.3 | 5.6 | 7.4 |
| Reed Johnson | 3.7 | 3.2 | 7.2 | 4.6 |
Next week: RC/27 projections for catchers and designated hitters.
Al Melchior was recently a Fantasy columnist and data analyst for Baseball HQ and will be providing advice columns for CBSSports.com. Click here to send him a question. Please put "Melchior" in the subject field.
