By the Numbers: Who is the real Wakefield?

Few starting pitchers are as steady and predictable as Tim Wakefield, but his season is progressing as unpredictably as the flight of one of his knucklers. After a good beginning, he went through a miserable three-game stretch in mid-May during which his ERA shot up nearly two runs, from 3.33 to 5.19. Then Wakefield went on to post a 1.98 ERA over his next seven starts, going at least seven innings in each of those games. As his ERA has dropped, Wakefield’s ownership numbers have continued to grow, from 38 percent in Week 9 to 55 percent in Week 15.

Wakefield's owners have enjoyed a great ride, but how long can it last? The good news for Wakefield owners is that his skill trends support the notion that he can sustain his season-to-date numbers. Most notably, he was walking 4.6 batters per nine innings prior to his hot streak, but that figure has been shaved to a more typical rate of 3.7. Now here's the downer, Wakefield owners: he has also been very lucky over the past month and a half. The Red Sox righty is one of the few pitchers who consistently compiles a below-average H/BIP, and through late May, his rate was a typically low 27 percent. Since then, his rate has fallen to an abnormally-low 24 percent, earning him a place on this week’s "Lucky Pitchers" list. It's unlikely that Wakefield will go back to walking a batter every other inning, but don't be surprised if his ERA and WHIP revert to higher levels as more balls start to fall in for base hits.

While a few too many owners have jumped on the Wakefield bandwagon, far too many are abandoning his Bronx nemesis, Darrell Rasner. Over the last two weeks, more than half of Rasner's owners have dumped him because of a few bad starts, including a Fourth of July shellacking by the Red Sox. His strikeout and walk rates are basically the same now as they were when owners starting jumping ship. What's changed for Rasner is his H/BIP, which in just three starts has gone from a normal 30 percent to a fluky 34 percent. Like Wakefield, Rasner is probably no more than a borderline mixed league pitcher, but he is not as bad as he has appeared to be over his last few starts. In AL-only and deeper mixed leagues, he is a good bargain pickup.

Owners in NL-only leagues looking for a sleeper should consider rostering Rockies southpaw Jorge De La Rosa, one of the majors' unluckiest pitchers. His most obvious asset is his strikeout rate of more than a batter an inning. Sure, his 6.58 ERA and 1.54 WHIP are unsightly to say the least, but both should improve dramatically once his 35 H/BIP rate comes down to earth. Even if that rate doesn't improve (but really, it will), ERC says that his ERA should be more than a run lower than it is.

If you do pick De La Rosa up, it would help if you have an open reserve slot, because he has been the least successful of the Colorado starters at preventing home runs at Coors Field. That's obviously not a trend you want to have anything to do with, so reserve him for home starts. He does, however, have a more-than-respectable 0.8 HR/9 rate on the road. De La Rosa's surface stats make it appear as if he is the same pitcher who struggled through stints with the Brewers and Royals, but he is putting up the best ratios of his career and, with better luck, appears poised for a breakout performance.

Like De La Rosa, Royals speedster Joey Gathright is at that magical breakout age of 27. Too bad for his owners that his current average of .252 is about as good as it is likely to get. He has actually made progress in cutting down his whiff rate, which is currently at 14 percent, but he seems to have reached his ceiling in terms of his other skills. This reality has earned Gathright a spot on the "Poor Stats, Poor Skills" list. For those who see last year's .307 average as a beacon of hope for better things to come, the truth is that his average was propped up by an improbable 37 percent H/BIP rate. Speed can help to create some additional base hits, but a hitter in the Juan Pierre/Willy Taveras mold cannot count on getting hits on more than a third of balls in play with any kind of regularity.

All statistics below are for season-to-date performances through Saturday, July 5.

Al Melchior was recently a Fantasy columnist and data analyst for Baseball HQ and will be providing advice columns for CBSSports.com. Click here to send him a question. Please put "Melchior" in the subject field.