Owners who have followed the strange career of Mark Ellis know that the A's second baseman has a good season only every other year. Ever since his promising rookie season in 2002, Ellis has alternated years with an OPS around .700 with years where his OPS has been over .775. Last season was one of the good ones, so I guess that would explain why Ellis is currently owned in only 51 percent of the leagues on CBSSports.com.
Those in the market for a second baseman might want to look at Ellis' actual numbers so far in '08. His current .770 OPS is only seven points lower than last year's, and all signs point to an uptick in his batting average. In past seasons, Ellis has shown that he has the power and speed to turn 30 percent or more of his balls in play into base hits, despite his flyball tendencies that would normally keep H/BIP down. His current rate of 26 percent should increase, and his average, runs and RBI will likely rise along with it.
Maybe there's some bad H/BIP karma permeating the Bay Area, because Giants closer Brian Wilson is also getting a raw deal. Despite the fact that Wilson has better K/9, BB/9 and HR/9 ratios than George Sherrill, he is on a roster in only 77 percent of our leagues, while Sherrill has a home in 91 percent. Wilson's 34 percent H/BIP rate and 3.68 ERC (as compared to his actual 4.40 ERA) make him one of the unluckiest pitchers in the majors right now.
While Fantasy owners have not welcomed Wilson with open arms, they have been all too generous in inviting Brett Myers to play for their team. He is using up a roster spot in 86 percent of leagues on CBSSports.com, though most of those are reserve spots. Nonetheless, owners should be aware that he has come to his 5.51 ERA and 1.50 WHIP honestly, as his 30 percent H/BIP and 5.71 ERC attest. You would actually be better off getting your strikeouts from Gil Meche, who has better overall Fantasy and skill stats and is currently owned in only 54 percent of leagues.
While not as popular with owners as Myers, Khalil Greene is still rostered in 58 percent of our leagues, despite being one of the least productive regular shortstops this year. A few weeks back, I suggested that a turnaround was possible for Greene, because he has demonstrated a higher level of skill in the past. At some point, though, it's time to cut your losses, and Greene is showing no signs of improving his power or contact hitting.
All statistics below are for season-to-date performances through Saturday, June 21.
'Lucky' Hitters | H/BIP | RC/27 | 'Lucky' Pitchers | H/BIP | ERC |
Ramon Vazquez, 3B, Texas | 39% | 7.9 | Justin Masterson, SP, Boston | 19% | 2.92 |
Jeff Baker, 2B, Colorado | 39% | 6.9 | Gavin Floyd, SP, Chicago White Sox | 20% | 3.09 |
Jesus Flores, C, Washington | 38% | 6.9 | Ryan Dempster, SP, Chicago Cubs | 22% | 2.56 |
Brandon Boggs, OF, Texas | 37% | 4.8 | Francisco Cordero, RP, Cincinnati | 23% | 2.83 |
Fred Lewis, OF, San Francisco | 37% | 6.2 | Kevin Gregg, RP, Florida | 24% | 2.84 |
Johnny Damon, OF, N.Y. Yankees | 36% | 7.4 | Joe Saunders, SP, L.A. Angels | 24% | 3.00 |
Mike Aviles, SS, Kansas City | 35% | 8.4 | Seth McClung, RP, Milwaukee | 25% | 3.35 |
Ryan Sweeney, OF, Oakland | 35% | 5.0 | John Lackey, SP, L.A. Angels | 25% | 2.20 |
Elijah Dukes, OF, Washington | 35% | 4.9 | Scott Olsen, SP, Florida | 25% | 3.63 |
Julio Lugo, SS, Boston | 34% | 4.4 | Daisuke Matsuzaka, SP, Boston | 26% | 3.67 |
Unlucky' Hitters | H/BIP | RC/27 | 'Unlucky' Pitchers | H/BIP | ERC |
Cody Ross, OF, Florida | 19% | 4.6 | Rafael Betancourt, RP, Cleveland | 38% | 5.39 |
Omar Vizquel, SS, San Francisco | 20% | 1.8 | Shawn Hill, SP, Washington | 36% | 5.57 |
Mike Napoli, C, L.A. Angels | 20% | 4.5 | Andrew Miller, SP, Florida | 35% | 4.76 |
Kenji Johjima, C, Seattle | 23% | 2.5 | Jarrod Washburn, SP, Seattle | 35% | 5.79 |
Mike Jacobs, 1B, Florida | 24% | 4.7 | Andy Sonnanstine, SP, Tampa Bay | 34% | 4.48 |
Robinson Cano, 2B, N.Y. Yankees | 24% | 2.7 | Randy Johnson, SP, Arizona | 34% | 4.59 |
Adrian Beltre, 3B, Seattle | 25% | 4.9 | A.J. Burnett, SP, Toronto | 34% | 4.60 |
David Dellucci, OF, Cleveland | 25% | 3.6 | Brian Wilson, RP, San Francisco | 34% | 3.68 |
Melvin Mora, 3B, Baltimore | 26% | 3.8 | Jonathan Broxton, RP, L.A. Dodgers | 34% | 3.25 |
Mark Ellis, 2B, Oakland | 26% | 5.12 | Javier Vazquez, SP, Chicago White Sox | 34% | 4.10 |
Good stats, good skills - hitters | H/BIP | RC/27 | Good stats, good skills - pitchers | H/BIP | ERC |
Carlos Quentin, OF, Chicago White Sox | 28% | 7.5 | Damaso Marte, RP, Pittsburgh | 30% | 2.33 |
Conor Jackson, 1B, Arizona | 31% | 7.0 | Jorge Campillo, RP, Atlanta | 29% | 2.49 |
Ian Kinsler, 2B, Texas | 33% | 6.9 | Ervin Santana, SP, L.A. Angels | 27% | 2.51 |
Luke Scott, OF, Baltimore | 29% | 6.4 | Brian Fuentes, RP, Colorado | 29% | 2.55 |
Randy Winn, OF, San Francisco | 33% | 6.3 | John Danks, SP, Chicago White Sox | 29% | 3.17 |
Poor stats, poor skills - hitters | H/BIP | RC/27 | Poor stats, poor skills - pitchers | H/BIP | ERC |
Khalil Greene, SS, San Diego | 29% | 3.4 | Brett Myers, SP, Philadelphia | 30% | 5.71 |
Matt Treanor, C, Florida | 33% | 3.4 | Oliver Perez, SP, N.Y. Mets | 28% | 5.57 |
Brendan Harris, SS, Minnesota | 32% | 3.4 | Kyle Kendrick, SP, Philadelphia | 30% | 5.44 |
Brad Wilkerson, OF, Toronto | 32% | 3.6 | R.A. Dickey, RP, Seattle | 32% | 4.95 |
Jack Wilson, SS, Pittsburgh | 32% | 3.6 | Luke Hochevar, SP, Kansas City | 31% | 4.92 |
|
Runs Created per 27 Outs (RC/27) -- An estimate of how many
runs a lineup would produce per 27 outs if a particular player
occupied each spot in the order; ex. the RC/27 for Miguel Cabrera
would predict the productivity of a lineup where Cabrera (or his
statistical equal) batted in all nine spots; created by Bill James Component ERA (ERC) -- An estimate of a what a pitcher's ERA would be if it were based solely on actual pitching performance; created by Bill James Base Hits per Balls in Play (H/BIP) -- The percentage of balls in play (at bats minus strikeouts and home runs) that are base hits; research by Voros McCracken and others has established that this rate is largely random and has a norm of approximately 30% Isolated Power -- The difference between slugging percentage and batting average; created by Branch Rickey and Allan Roth Walk Rate -- Walks / (at bats + walks) Whiff Rate -- Strikeouts / at bats |
Al Melchior was recently a Fantasy columnist and data analyst for Baseball HQ and will be providing advice columns for CBSSports.com. Click here to send him a question. Please put "Melchior" in the subject field.