If not for his 13 home runs, it would appear that Adrian Beltre is having a substandard season. He is batting just .244 and is on pace to put up lower run and RBI totals than last season. This is especially disappointing because his performance had been steadily improving since his dismal 2005 campaign, and at 29, his owners could rightly expect at least another season of above-league average offensive production. Fortunately for Beltre's owners, there is hope that Adrian's rocky season is about to improve. To date, he is the owner of a 24 percent H/BIP rate, which is six percentage points below his rate from the last two seasons. Meanwhile his walk rate and Isolated Power are better than last year's and he is on pace to match his steal total (14) from 2007. Note to the 13 percent of Beltre owners who have him on reserves: watch his numbers closely and be ready to activate him as his batting average starts to head north.
Beltre is only available in three percent of all CBSSports.com leagues, so if you are looking for a waiver option to boost your offense, try Cliff Floyd. He appears to be healthy again, is getting regular at-bats and is currently owned in only seven percent of CBSSports.com leagues. Floyd's 0.899 OPS is not the product of smoke and mirrors or a time machine, but skill statistics that are roughly in line with those from his glory years. He hasn't posted an Isolated Power average this high (.266) since, well, ever, so we can expect his slugging percentage to come down, but his numbers in general should still be good enough to warrant mixed league consideration.
Roy Oswalt's owners must be thinking his 5.45 ERA and 1.45 WHIP are an illusion. Why else would he still be owned in 96 percent of all leagues and starting in 59 percent? Sorry, folks, but his 16 homers yielded in 76 innings make that ERA all too real and his near-normal 31 percent H/BIP suggests that his WHIP probably won’t shrink anytime soon. Unless, he can dramatically cut back on the long balls, there is no reason to roster Oswalt, even on reserves.
How long B.J. Ryan can manage to remain a Fantasy favorite will depend on one of two things: whether he can throw strikes more consistently or maintain his lucky 26 percent H/BIP rate. Going into Sunday's game against the Angels, Ryan's sparkling 0.53 ERA and 1.12 WHIP made him look anything but vulnerable. Those numbers are hard to maintain, though, when you are weighed down by a 4.2 BB/9 rate. Control issues caught up with Ryan on Sunday, as he threw 10 of his 20 pitches for balls, and he blew his first save of the season. If Ryan gives his owners more of the same, it's best to shelve him, particularly in mixed leagues, where reliable options like Jon Rauch and Matt Capps are widely available.
'Lucky' Hitters | H/BIP | RC/27 | 'Lucky' Pitchers | H/BIP | ERC |
Jesus Flores, C, Washington | 47% | 9.1 | Renyel Pinto, RP, Florida | 19% | 2.55 |
Jerry Hairston, OF, Cincinnati | 40% | 8.0 | Vinnie Chulk, RP, San Francisco | 22% | 3.29 |
Matt Kemp, OF, L.A. Dodgers | 40% | 5.4 | Manny Acosta, RP, Atlanta | 24% | 3.51 |
Ramon Vazquez, 3B, Texas | 40% | 7.4 | Daniel Cabrera, SP, Baltimore | 25% | 3.81 |
Aaron Rowand, OF, San Francisco | 40% | 7.8 | John Lackey, SP, L.A. Angels | 26% | 3.10 |
Dioner Navarro, C, Tampa Bay | 39% | 5.8 | B.J. Ryan, RP, Toronto | 26% | 2.24 |
B.J. Upton, OF, Tampa Bay | 39% | 6.8 | Oliver Perez, SP, N.Y. Mets | 26% | 5.11 |
Brandon Boggs, OF, Texas | 39% | 5.0 | Paul Byrd, SP, Cleveland | 26% | 4.33 |
Mark DeRosa, 2B, Chicago Cubs | 37% | 6.9 | Shawn Chacon, RP, Houston | 27% | 4.39 |
Aaron Miles, 2B, St. Louis | 35% | 4.3 | Jon Lester, SP, Boston | 27% | 3.84 |
Unlucky' Hitters | H/BIP | RC/27 | 'Unlucky' Pitchers | H/BIP | ERC |
Cody Ross, OF, Florida | 16% | 5.2 | Jesus Colome, RP, Washington | 38% | 4.78 |
J.R. Towles, C, Houston | 16% | 2.6 | Andrew Miller, SP, Florida | 38% | 5.40 |
Mike Napoli, C, L.A. Angels | 21% | 5.3 | Jonathan Broxton, RP, L.A. Dodgers | 36% | 3.71 |
Robinson Cano, 2B, N.Y. Yankees | 23% | 2.7 | Justin Miller, RP, Florida | 35% | 4.41 |
Damion Easley, 2B, N.Y. Mets | 23% | 1.8 | Ubaldo Jimenez, SP, Colorado | 35% | 5.25 |
Maicer Izturis, 2B, L.A. Angels | 23% | 2.9 | Damaso Marte, RP, Pittsburgh | 34% | 3.06 |
Adrian Beltre, 3B, Seattle | 24% | 5.1 | C.C. Sabathia, SP, Cleveland | 34% | 4.48 |
Asdrubal Cabrera, 2B, Cleveland | 24% | 2.2 | A.J. Burnett, SP, Toronto | 34% | 4.11 |
Eric Hinske, 1B, Tampa Bay | 24% | 5.2 | Nate Robertson, SP, Detroit | 33% | 5.36 |
Ryan Howard, 1B, Philadelphia | 24% | 5.3 | Derek Lowe, SP, L.A. Dodgers | 33% | 4.10 |
Good stats, good skills - hitters | H/BIP | RC/27 | Good stats, good skills - pitchers | H/BIP | ERC |
Pat Burrell, OF, Philadelphia | 30% | 9.3 | Edinson Volquez, SP, Cincinnati | 29% | 2.76 |
Jason Bay, OF, Pittsburgh | 31% | 9.1 | Rich Harden, SP, Oakland | 31% | 2.94 |
Jacoby Ellsbury, OF, Boston | 30% | 7.2 | John Danks, SP, Chicago White Sox | 29% | 3.02 |
Cliff Floyd, DH, Tampa Bay | 29% | 6.6 | James Shields, SP, Tampa Bay | 29% | 3.16 |
Cristian Guzman, SS, Washington | 31% | 5.5 | Chad Billingsley, SP, L.A. Dodgers | 30% | 3.23 |
Poor stats, poor skills - hitters | H/BIP | RC/27 | Poor stats, poor skills - pitchers | H/BIP | ERC |
Freddie Bynum, SS, Baltimore | 30% | 2.4 | Roy Oswalt, SP, Houston | 31% | 5.43 |
Jason Bartlett, SS, Tampa Bay | 30% | 2.8 | Brian Moehler, RP, Houston | 31% | 5.02 |
Felipe Lopez, SS, Washington | 30% | 3.3 | Ted Lilly, SP, Chicago Cubs | 31% | 4.84 |
Adam Jones, OF, Baltimore | 31% | 3.6 | Luke Hochevar, SP, Kansas City | 30% | 4.84 |
James Loney, 1B, L.A. Dodgers | 31% | 4.0 | Gil Meche, SP, Kansas City | 31% | 4.58 |
|
Runs Created per 27 Outs (RC/27) -- An estimate of how many
runs a lineup would produce per 27 outs if a particular player
occupied each spot in the order; ex. the RC/27 for Miguel Cabrera
would predict the productivity of a lineup where Cabrera (or his
statistical equal) batted in all nine spots; created by Bill James Component ERA (ERC) -- An estimate of a what a pitcher's ERA would be if it were based solely on actual pitching performance; created by Bill James Base Hits per Balls in Play (H/BIP) -- The percentage of balls in play (at bats minus strikeouts and home runs) that are base hits; research by Voros McCracken and others has established that this rate is largely random and has a norm of approximately 30% Isolated Power -- The difference between slugging percentage and batting average; created by Branch Rickey and Allan Roth Walk Rate -- Walks / (at bats + walks) Whiff Rate -- Strikeouts / at bats |
Al Melchior was recently a Fantasy columnist and data analyst for Baseball HQ and will be providing advice columns for CBSSports.com. Click here to send him a question. Please put "Melchior" in the subject field.