You can e-mail your Fantasy Baseball questions to DMFantasyBaseball@cbs.com. Be sure to put Dear Mr. Fantasy in the subject field. Please include your full name, hometown and state.
Generally speaking, Mr. Fantasy turns a blind eye to excessively long e-mails. He doesn't mean to. He just gets busy this time of year.
But occasionally, one of those e-mails packs so much insight in all of its length that he has no choice but to post it -- all of it. Jim Falter of Statesville, N.C., you wrote one such e-mail, and here it is:
I need to pick up someone with a good chance of closing next year in my keeper league. I have to decide soon, and I have identified the four most likely candidates still available:
Brad Ziegler
GOOD -- He keeps the ball on the ground, has a
0.00 ERA, and has allowed no home runs in over two years.
BAD -- He
has a 4.1 K/9 rate, and what would the A's do with Huston Street? Also,
would Joey Devine be next in line?
Grant Balfour
GOOD -- He looks like he really has it figured
out. I think he's the most closer-worthy non-closer out there. I'm not
worried about Dan Wheeler. Plus, how
long does Troy Percival hang on?
BAD --
Yeah ... how long does Troy Percival hang
on?
Frank Francisco
GOOD -- He has solid numbers and seems to be
getting better. I already have Eddie Guardado,
but I'm worried about him still being the closer next year.
BAD --
How committed are the Rangers to C.J. Wilson
for next year?
Scot Shields:
GOOD -- He seems like he's back in form and is
the natural heir if Francisco Rodriguez
walks.
BAD -- He has a lot of miles on that arm. How likely is it
that K-Rod leaves? Would they go with Jose Arrendondo instead?
Who would you pick?
SW: Geez, Jim -- save some work for me. You've provided such detailed research and analysis already that I hate to contaminate it with my ... thoughts. I agree with pretty much every point you make -- both the pros and the cons -- so I guess I'll take a step-by-step approach in narrowing down your decision.
First, I'd eliminate Shields. Granted, the presence and looming free agency of Mark Teixeira changes the Angels' financial situation a bit, but they've always emphasized pitching first. I can't see them letting the best closer in baseball walk. And even if they do, Shields has served as setup man for so long that they might not want to shuffle him to another role, especially with Arrendondo capable of stepping in.
Second, I'd eliminate Ziegler. The Athletics have enough alternative options, Devine included, that I can't safely say they'll make Ziegler their closer even if they give up on Street, via trade or otherwise. Plus, teams generally like to turn groundball, non-strikeout pitchers into double-play specialists who can enter the game in the middle of an inning with men on base.
Third, I'd eliminate Francisco. The Rangers really seem to have high hopes for Wilson, despite his struggles and elbow injury. Plus, as a team on the threshold of competing, they could just as easily acquire an established closer in the offseason -- a move theoretically to get them over the hump.
So I guess that makes Balfour the man you want, and I agree he looks like a stud in waiting. Remember J.J. Putz the last two seasons? Balfour has the potential to produce the ridiculous stud numbers across the board, including a strikeout rate of 13 batters per nine innings. And since he has only a 39-year-old Percival standing in his way, look out.
I am currently in first place in a Head-to-Head league. We get points for wins, quality starts and strikeouts. For Fantasy Week 21 (Aug. 18-24), I need to start five pitchers. Which of the following five should I choose: Josh Beckett, John Lackey, Brandon Webb, Justin Duchscherer (two starts), Ricky Nolasco (two starts) or Joe Blanton (two starts)? -- Phil, Ashburn, Va.
SW: I understand how, in Head-to-Head leagues, you want to load up on two-start pitchers. Believe me: I do the same thing. But you can end up doing it to such an excessive degree that you overlook an obvious divergence in talent. Blanton has pitched better in his last two starts and looks rejuvenated since joining the Phillies, but he's clearly the worst of your three two-start pitchers and a good three or four tiers behind studs Beckett, Lackey and Webb. Reserve him.
I play in a league where every owner keeps two players. Last year, I let go of Dan Uggla and Travis Hafner due to their poor performances and held Matt Holliday and Grady Sizemore. Neither has disappointed. To fill my third outfield slot this year, I picked up Carlos Quentin around Week 3. Is Quentin for real? Should I keep him over Holliday or Sizemore? -- A. Taylor, Rock Island, Ill.
SW: Yes, Quentin absolutely projected as this type of player in the Diamondbacks organization, and he probably still has room to improve as far as his batting average goes. But going into next year, I can't see me ranking him ahead of Holliday, who can do about the same power-wise but with a batting average 40-60 points higher, or Sizemore, who has upped his power this year and still has the potential to steal 35-40 bases. Stick with what you have.
When Troy Tulowitzki came off the DL smacking the ball around, I made him my starter and put Stephen Drew on my bench. Now, Tulo is struggling a bit, and Drew is hot. I've gone around the league and tried to package the two of them and a quality starting pitcher to get one of the big three shortstops. But I'm not willing to give up my team to get one of them, and it seems like I'd have to. So it looks like I'm going to stick with Tulo and Drew for the rest of the year. With strikeouts counting minus-1 and Tulo hitting seventh in the order most of the time (as opposed to Drew, who's leading off), I'm thinking I should go back to Drew, but I feel like Tulo has more upside. Should I go ahead and make the switch? -- Frank D., Chester, Va.
SW: Just because Tulowitzki did better in his rookie season than Drew has in his whole career doesn't mean Tulowitzki has more upside. In fact, Drew got more acclaim in the minors, and I'd rather have him than Tulowitzki in a keeper league. So with Drew on nearly a 20-homer pace and Tulowitzki pushing a .240 batting average, why not go with the Diamondbacks shortstop?
I play in a Head-to-Head league, and I'm currently leading my division and the league in the power rankings. I really have no pressure to make a deal, but I have a little bit of an outfield problem. I start Grady Sizemore, Alfonso Soriano and Jason Bay. Josh Hamilton is my utility player, and I have Manny Ramirez on the bench. Ramirez and Bay put up similar numbers, and I really haven't gotten any trade offer that gives me equal value. Who should I start? It's hard to make a case to bench any of these players. Should I make a trade, or just keep one of them on the bench due to Soriano's injury history? -- Ryan Robinson, Canton, Ohio
SW: Before you look to make a deal, ask yourself if you really have a need. Because if you already have a stud at every position, why give up valuable outfield depth? The more players you start at a position, the more likely one of those players will get hurt. So having a backup outfielder is more important than having a backup at other positions because it preempts three potential crises instead of just one. Whether you choose to trade or bench your fifth outfielder, I'd make Soriano the odd man out in a Head-to-Head league. He has stud potential just like the rest of the bunch, but he's also one of the streakiest players in baseball. And with your star-studded lineup, I have a feeling you'll notice the cold streaks more than you notice the hot streaks.
I'm in a 12-team points league and have been steadily trading away depth over the last two seasons to upgrade my keepers. I'm now in the enviable position of having to choose four of the following five to keep for next year: Alex Rodriguez, Matt Holliday, Lance Berkman, Johan Santana and Jake Peavy. I'm leaning toward Berkman as the odd man out because this year just seems like a bit of an outlier for him, especially at his age. I realize that Santana and Peavy are having slightly down years, but I'm still a believer in both and currently have them ranked as the No. 1 and 2 starting pitchers on my board. I know many people would let Peavy go, but starting pitchers score heavily in my league, especially high-strikeout guys. Who should I dump? -- Mike Geary, Boston
SW: I spent a large portion of last week's Dear Mr. Fantasy column talking about how I'd never keep a stud pitcher over a stud hitter, so I won't bore my returning audience by rehashing the same argument. Basically, you have to rely on luck if you keep a starting pitcher because they so often get injured. But I have an added wrinkle in your case. I suggest you keep Berkman over Peavy because I think you'll have an easier time replacing Peavy than you will Berkman. A couple months ago, I could have understood you calling this season an outlier for Berkman, but he had such an awful July and beginning of August that his overall numbers now look pretty close to normal. I imagine the other Fantasy owners in your league will keep all the other stud first basemen, forcing you to settle for someone like Casey Kotchman, which you don't want to do. Meanwhile, Peavy, assuming he gives you a full healthy season, looks like he'll cap at around 15 wins pitching for the lowly Padres. You can find a 15-win pitcher off waivers most years. Look at Ricky Nolasco. Look at Joe Saunders. Look at Edinson Volquez and Justin Duchscherer. Would I rather have Peavy than any of those guys? Of course I would, but not by as much as I'd rather have Berkman than Kotchman.
I am in a 14-man Head-to-Head mixed league. The league lets you keep two players who were drafted after the 10th round. I have to pick between Geovany Soto, Chris Davis, Johnny Cueto, Edinson Volquez or J.D. Drew. Keep in mind the league does subtract one point per strikeout. Who would you keep? -- Brian Kiefer
SW: Did I miss something? Why would you even consider keeping Cueto over Volquez? I agree Cueto has almost as much potential long-term, but you have to go with the guy who's done it already. Volquez looks like a Fantasy ace, so don't lose faith in him even if he struggles over the final six weeks. Young pitchers tend to falter when they reach their career high in innings. As for your second keeper, Soto looks like another easy call. He's struggled at times during his rookie season but still looks like an elite option at the weakest position in Fantasy. Why pass on an elite option for a potentially elite option (Davis) and a never elite option (Drew)?
As my team struggles, I'm looking towards 2009. I play in a keeper league that allows owners to keep one player that was drafted between rounds five and 15. I have been thinking Nate McLouth at 15. But with Jason Bay's move to Boston, I'm now leaning toward him in Round 6. I could also keep Jacoby Ellsbury in Round 14. Any thoughts? -- Bryan Beitel, Livingston, Mont.
SW: Yeah, I think Ellsbury and McLouth have the potential to play almost as well as Bay, but at a much cheaper price. I wouldn't even consider Bay over either of them in this scenario, even with his move to Boston. It only improved his Fantasy value a little, not enough to re-think your strategy. Right now, I'd probably keep Ellsbury because I have my doubts about an overachiever like McLouth, especially with his struggles lately. But if he gets hot again, keep him over Ellsbury. When in doubt, trust power over speed.
You can e-mail your Fantasy Baseball questions to DMFantasyBaseball@cbs.com. Be sure to put Dear Mr. Fantasy in the subject field. Please include your full name, hometown and state.