Another week, another mailbag, another endless supply of e-mails asking "who should I keep?"
Well, a select few of you will find out exactly who you should keep, with enough player analysis thrown in to keep everyone else interested. I also tackled a few Draft Day conundrums for good measure.
This particular mailbag also takes on reliever strategies, man crushes, and a staggering lack of love for Alex Rodriguez, so let's all roll up our sleeves, drop Albert Pujols in our rankings, and dive right in.
It seems like there's a ridiculous amount of young rookies and sophomores being touted as 30-homer or 40-steal or 20-20 candidates this season -- a good deal of whom are sitting on the waiver wire in my standard Rotisserie league. Currently, I have Felix Pie in my outfield and Billy Butler at my utility spot. But Lastings Milledge, Cameron Maybin, Mark Reynolds and Carlos Gomez are available. Is it even possible to know which of these players will perform best, and if not, is it a better idea to take a Richie Sexson, Troy Glaus or Wily Mo Pena -- guys who you pretty much know will hit 25 dingers and get 80 to 90 RBI? -- Andrew Pearson-Wood
SW: I generally don't end up with hyped rookies and sophomores for the exact reasons you mentioned, Andrew. Shoot, who wants to invest in the unknown if they can avoid it? But at some point, those proven players reach a certain level of mediocrity -- proven mediocrity -- that convinces me to go for the hole-in-one. So instead of making sweeping generalizations, I prefer to look at players on a case-by-case basis. Among the ones you listed, Milledge and Glaus make the most sense to me over Pie and Butler. Milledge looks ready to break out this spring (hitting .406 with five stolen bases and a 1.111 OPS through Monday) and finally has full-time at-bats in Washington. Glaus hit 20 homers in about two-thirds of a season last year and should hit around 35 again if he stays healthy.
I am from Milwaukee and a HUGE Brewers fan. I have the first pick in a 10-man league this year. I want Prince Fielder! If I take him No. 1 is there enough out there to make up for what I might lose by not drafting Alex Rodriguez? I actually think Fielder is due for another monster year, and he plays in a popsicle stand in Milwaukee. How dumb is this move on my part? Keep in mind there might be a man crush involved. -- Justin Czarnecki, Milwaukee
SW: While I understand the impact of a man crush and applaud your ability to recognize your own, you can't let it blind you from assembling the best possible Fantasy team. I like Fielder as much as anybody, but you're looking at him through rose-colored glasses if you rate him as highly as A-Rod. I could envision worse reaches at No. 1 overall, but Fielder's really more of a late-first- or early-second-round kind of guy. I understand your dilemma because Fielder obviously won't last until your second pick, but you don't have your team's best interests in mind if you spend the No. 1 pick on anyone other than A-Rod. Any chance you could trade down? If not, can I at least convince you to go ahead and take A-Rod and then, after the draft, try trading him for Fielder and someone else?
I was considering using this strategy for my Fantasy league this year. In our league, holds count just as much as saves do. However, most people are more concerned with saves and will take three closers and only one setup man. Would it be a good idea to reverse this and spend less while taking setup men instead of paying heavily for closers? -- Jake Donchez, Bethlehem, Pa.
SW: Here's the thing about holds, Jake: It's a silly category. If you think saves are unpredictable (and I do), just wait until you see the holds distribution across the league at season's end. In terms of Fantasy, you can never assure yourself the league lead in holds because so many relievers can get them -- not just setup men. I've seen six relievers get holds in the same game, and you probably have too. Now, if you want to load up on $1 setup men who have a good chance of closing, hoping they'll eventually earn saves while piling up holds in the meantime, I can support that strategy. But I imagine those particular setup men (Pat Neshek, Rafael Betancourt) will go for more money than you think, and you don't want to end up paying more than $1 for someone whose sole contribution is holds.
I'm in a Head-to-Head league of 12 teams, and we get to keep seven players with no restrictions. I have narrowed my choices down to about 10, but can't quite get to seven. Here is who I am choosing from: Manny Ramirez, Hanley Ramirez, Aramis Ramirez, Lance Berkman, J.J. Putz, Scott Kazmir, Ben Sheets, Jered Weaver, Clay Buchholz and John Maine. -- Kevin Maxwell, Orlando
SW: Well, at least you have a monopoly on every Fantasy-relevant player named Ramirez. (Clearly, I wouldn't put in a claim for Horacio anytime soon.) You really consider Buchholz worthy of including on that list? Don't get me wrong: I think he stands to make the biggest Fantasy impact of any rookie this season, but he's made only three starts. He could totally flop this year. If I draft him, I want him in the late rounds, well after Maine and Weaver go off the board. Incidentally, I think you should drop those three -- Buchholz, Maine and Weaver. You have a good offense in the making.
For my final two keepers, I have to choose between Robinson Cano, Derrek Lee, Alex Gordon and Delmon Young. I was going to keep Cano and then choose between Gordon and Young. But I'm concerned one of them will have a breakout season like Ryan Braun did last year and I'll have picked the wrong one. Who do you predict will break out this year and go to the next level in Fantasy? Am I crazy not to consider Lee? -- Josh Martin, Canton, Mass.
SW: I think you're totally overthinking this one, Josh. When selecting your keepers, assuming they all carry the same weight -- in other words, instead of giving up part of your budget or a particular draft pick, you just pick two players and call it a day -- you simply want to go with the best players. In this case, the best players are Cano and Lee. They've already broken out. You know the absolute worst they can give you, and you know it's still something you want. Sure, Gordon and Young could become better players down the road, but it might not happen this year. Heck, it might not happen ever. Remember Ben Grieve? What about Travis Lee? When deciding your keepers, ask yourself which players you'll have an easier time getting back in the draft. I think most prognosticators would agree with me and rank Lee ahead of Young and Gordon.
I have the No. 1 pick in a Head-to-Head league. I'm a die-hard Yankees fan who wants no part of Alex Rodriguez regardless of his numbers. (I doubt he can to do it again on that level now that he has his contract and is complaining about a sore shoulder.) How much do I lose if I draft someone like Johan Santana or Ryan Howard instead with the first pick? -- Anna DuVall
SW: So let me get this straight: You're a Yankees fan who roots against A-Rod? Man, that must be awkward. Do you also root for the Yankees to lose since, I mean, they probably win more often when A-Rod does well? I don't mean to pick on you, Anna, but I'll never understand you Yankees fans and some of your biases. Even if last year's numbers represent the best A-Rod can do, then the year before's numbers, .290-35-121-113-15, represent about the worst he can do. You wouldn't take that second set as a certainty, when the possibility exists for much, much more? Look, A-Rod is the best player in Fantasy Baseball. If you don't want him with your No. 1 pick, then trade that pick to someone who does. If you can't trade draft picks in your league, then go ahead and take whomever you want. Fantasy Baseball is a game, games should be fun, and if owning A-Rod makes you miserable, you have your answer. I probably wouldn't want to play in your league, though, since winning sounds like less than the primary objective.
OK, I noticed during the mock drafts that after the team minimums are drafted, some owners draft ONLY pitchers for their reserves. In a 12-team Head-to-Head, is this a good strategy? -- Kevin Winston, Boise
SW: Speaking strictly for Head-to-Head formats, it's a great strategy, Kevin. In fact, it's my strategy. In Head-to-Head leagues, you want to outscore your opponent each week, and the best way to do so is to ensure you get more starts from your pitchers. The more pitchers you own, the better chance some will have two starts in a given week. And even if you play in a league that limits the number of starts allowed per week, I still like the strategy of carrying more pitchers in reserve. See, I like to load up on hitters early because I think pitchers have more boom-or-bust potential and I want to protect myself from the early-round "bust." But conversely, by filling up my bench with middle-to-late round pitchers, I better my odds of landing a few on the "boom" end of the spectrum.
I'm in a 10-team mixed Head-to-Head league with nine keepers (so sue me for being in an easy format). For my last two keepers I need to choose between the following: Kelly Johnson, Jason Bay, Jered Weaver, and Chris R. Young. I have no other pitchers. -- Joshua C. Prosten Washington D.C.
SW: Every format offers its own unique challenges, and ones as shallow as yours are often more difficult because they place more emphasis on more subtle statistics. In other words, don't expect a lawsuit from me. As for your question, I think I'd keep Young for sure because of his elite strikeouts and WHIP. If enough second basemen remain in the draft pool that you can get one as good as Johnson, throw him back and keep Weaver. Otherwise, go with Johnson.
I enjoyed your draft day advice series -- great tips. I'm in a 5X5, Rotisserie league, and I'm wondering what your advice is on how many starting pitchers to draft vs. relievers. In looking at mock drafts, it seems to range all over the place. Some take four, some two. Is there a good rule of thumb? --Vic Caleca, Fishers, Ind.
SW: I haven't studied this subject much myself, but I generally like to draft the number of closers that guarantees me at least an even distribution with the rest of the league. For example, if I play in a 10-team mixed league, I know my leaguemates and I have 30 closers to divide between 10 teams, so I draft three. If I play in a 12-team NL-only league, I know my leaguemates and I have 16 closers to divide between 12 teams, so I try to draft two, but if I end up with only one, I know it's not the end of the world.
In my 12-team Rotisserie league, we can retain six players. Out of these seven, who would you keep: Hanley Ramirez for $17, Joey Votto for $0, Jacoby Ellsbury for $0, Brett Myers for $5, Chris R. Young for $12, Dan Haren for $17 and Dustin McGowan for $0. -- Tim Wyant, Duncansville, Pa.
SW: I had to answer this question just because the idea of keeping a player for $0 sounds like such an economic coup that I'd feel obligated to keep anyone who qualified. Shoot, you know you'd have to pay at least $1 to get him back. So while I normally wouldn't recommend keeping Votto because I think manager Dusty Baker ends up using Scott Hatteberg more, in this case, I'd throw back Young. Every other player looks like a bargain at his current price. Heck, McGowan could end up having just as good a year as Young -- and that's no knock on Young.
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