It's a case of the unusual suspects that generally make or break a Fantasy season. It's the waiver wire cronies and Draft Day sleepers that supplement, or in some cases fill-in, for the Fantasy must-have players. But the biggest concern is always: can these guys keep it going?
Time to take a look at some real early-season gems and project if they are worth keeping or pawning off on another Fantasy owner.
Kevin Youkilis: Boston's first baseman has been on a ridiculous tear of late, recording multi-hit games in nine of his last 10 games through Wednesday. Not to mention he is on a 22-game hitting streak and has hit safely in 25-of-26 games in May. Analysis: Keep Youkilis around. He hit well in the high minors and has plenty of lineup protection.
Mike Lowell: Much like his teammate Youkilis, the first two months of the season have been very kind to Lowell. He is traditionally a fast starter, but struggles in the latter part of the season. He's even acknowledged that. Analysis: Cut bait with Lowell. A good chance the bottom will fall out.
J.J. Hardy: Even Hardy is amazed at his power numbers (15 homers, 44 RBI) through the first two months of the season. He contends that he is just doing his normal routine at the plate. Analysis: As much as this pains me to say, I don't think he will keep up the power barrage. Still a good option at SS, but if you want to sell him high, I won't stop you.
Casey Blake: It only took an injury to Andy Marte to move Blake to third base, where he has thrived not only in the field but at the plate. Blake has been one of the league's top hitters in May and even earned AL Player of the Week honors for May 21-27. Analysis: Blake, who is a career .260 hitter, likely has run his course. I advise to trade him while his value is sky high.
Bengie Molina: Definitely a player overlooked in mixed-league formats on Draft Day, Molina is one of the top producing Fantasy catchers in 2007. Analysis: You aren't likely to improve via a trade or waiver wire at catcher -- a very thin Fantasy position. Molina is worth holding onto.
Aaron Rowand: A top-40 Fantasy outfielder in the preseason, Rowand has outperformed guys that were drafted in the top 10 at his position. Rowand's name was dangled in trade talks all preseason and that seems to have lit a fire under him. Also, he is a free agent to be. Analysis: Don't expect Rowand to consistently produce like a high-end Fantasy outfielder. He is still a solid Fantasy option, but if you can move him for a slumping slugger, I would advise a trade.
Randy Wolf: The veteran lefty has been on a roll in May, allowing a total of five earned runs in five starts. He is 6-3 on the season with 71 strikeouts in 66 innings. Analysis: Wolf has dealt with injuries the last few seasons, but he is finally healthy and looks like the guy who was successful early in his career with the Phillies. Again, Wolf is one of those players that if you can trade up from a slumping arm (i.e. Barry Zito), don't be afraid to pull the trigger.
Chad Gaudin: This guy has appeared out of left field for five wins. He hasn't allowed more than four earned runs in any of his 11 starts. Analysis: Gaudin wasn't terrible in the minors, but he wasn't anything truly special either. That is why he wasn't greeted with much fanfare. I would be hesitant to deal Gaudin because it's not like he has been hot in his last five starts. He has been solid through 11 starts. I think this kid has major league talent.
Should I try to get a couple of players for Magglio Ordonez or should I keep him? -- Martha Glover, USA
MH: Ordonez is another great candidate to look at as someone to sell high, but he is no fluke. He has been productive when healthy, and he is doing it once again in 2007. I would hold onto Ordonez.
I drafted Tadahito Iguchi with my last pick to start at second base. Obviously he's had a disappointing start to the year, but I've been patient with him. I now feel that I have to look to upgrade. What should I do? -- Shawn Ketchum, Branford, Conn.
MH: I would be tempted to deal Iguchi. Sell the fact that he has been one of the top Fantasy producers at second base in the past. You'll likely get equal value for his performance thus far, but you might be able to swing a deal for someone else's slumping slugger. If not, then just reserve Iguchi until he starts to hit. Don't drop him on waivers.
If you could have one pitcher on the disabled list, would you rather have: Pedro Martinez or Chris Carpenter?
MH: Pedro. The logical choice would be Carpenter, but his return this season is not guaranteed. Neither is Martinez's, but there is a much better chance he returns at this stage.
What is up with Bill Hall? He lacks power and is striking out a lot. Is it time to dump him or what? -- Rob Linder, South Huntington, N.Y.
MH: Not a chance. Outside of the fact that he is eligible at shortstop and outfield, he is in the middle of a pretty good lineup. I expect him to go on a run soon and so does his manager Ned Yost.
Amidst all the talk of underperforming stars, no one is saying much about Vernon Wells -- only five homers through Wednesday. Is there any reason to believe he won't return to form some time soon? -- Joe Brodesko, Virginia Beach, Va.
MH: I think Wells is a victim of his own success. He had a great 2006 season and was rewarded with a long-term extension. He jacked 32 homers and Fantasy owners were thinking he might reach the 40-homer plateau. However, he has only hit more than 30 homers twice in five seasons since becoming a full-time starter. He also never hit more than 20 homers in any of his five seasons in the minors. Wells is looking much like the guy who hit between .269-.279 and jacked 20-30 homers during the 2002, 2004 and 2005 seasons. Not the guy who hit over. 300 with more than 30 homers during 2003 and 2006 seasons. Wells is going to post suitable numbers by the end of the season, just keep your expectations in line.
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