Draft prep: This year's 27-year-old class

The Rockies were surprising World Series participants. The Red Sox were surprisingly dominant from start to finish.

Yet, we were not surprised how everything was decided last year.

Josh Beckett won another postseason MVP award and would have won his first Cy Young if not for C.C. Sabathia winning his first. Burgeoning superstar Matt Holliday nearly rose up to win the NL MVP, leading his team -- along with ace Jeff Francis -- to a thrilling one-game playoff win and into the postseason, only to be outdone by Beckett's Red Sox.

Beckett, Sabathia and Holliday -- baseball heroes last season and breakthrough superstars that led their teams into the final four. They also had something more significant in common: They each were 27 years old. Francis, now 27 himself, was a starting pitcher in his third year.

They all performed better last year than we had seen them in years prior. The weight of past numbers is generally how the public rates players going into the next year (much to our dismay), when in actuality, you want to draft this year's Fantasy team, not last year's.

If you have followed our analysis on CBSSports.com in recent years, and yours truly in particular, you know we take great pride in uncovering players who haven't peaked. You also know plenty about why 27-year-olds and third-year starting pitchers are potential breakthrough candidates.

Those are the first two categories in our pre-draft series on sleepers and breakouts. We also outline the top rookies/prospects, overlooked sophomores and top free-agents-to-be as ways to uncover players who can outproduce their draft position. Injury questions can downgrade a player too low, too.

This year's crop of 27-year-olds is as exciting as any. Below are our top 10 players in this category who have yet to show us their best and who we expect to do so this year. In many cases, like a stock that has yet to mature, picking these guys up on Draft Day will give you more bang for your buck.

If you need a refresher: The theory behind 27-year-old breakouts is based on medical research that suggests a man's body reaches its physical peak at that age. Also, after years of seasoning and pro experience everything comes together for career highs across the board.

Granted, there are exceptions to every rule. For instance: Bobby Crosby was 27 last year and arguably as worthless as we have ever seen him. Dan Johnson, Chad Tracy and Chris Burke were all 27, too, and nearly equally worthless.

But you can't argue with nature and science. The strategy of picking hitters entering their prime physical years is a great one when you are trying to choose between a veteran in decline (Gary Sheffield) or a comparable player, statistically, who is now just 27 and yet to look like an MVP (see No. 1 here).

Note: All of the players mentioned here are either 27 on opening day or will turn that age during the season.

1. Alex Rios

Outfielder | Toronto Blue Jays
Career highs: .302 AVG, 24 HR, 85 RBI, 114 R, SB 17

Unless you are a true prospect hound, you might not know, but Rios was once the best prospect in baseball and considered a 30-30 candidate. It has taken him four years to get to the .300-25-85-115-20 level. But, since he is 27 this spring, this should be the year he completely busts out.

We have seen glimpses of greatness, but a favorite theory of ours is that streaky young hitters become superstars. With age and experience, those hot streaks get longer and the short streaks get shorter.

And, if you have paid attention to detail, the "next Dave Winfield" has filled out on his 6-foot-5 frame. Once a tall, skinny outfielder who homered just one time in his first year (426 at-bats), Rios has become a behemoth -- and a Home Run Derby participant.

There was a very good reason the Giants actually were considering dealing Tim Lincecum for Rios this winter.

You might see a nice mid-round pick. We see a future MVP.

Like Holliday before him, Rios could wind up being a Fantasy first-rounder after his age-27 season.

2. Curtis Granderson

Outfielder | Detroit Tigers
Career highs: .302-23-74-122-26

Speaking of skinny outfielders with some outstanding projectability, we have Granderson, who set every one of his career highs last year. He was also just the third player in history to get at least 20 homers, 20 doubles, 20 triples and 20 stolen bases in a season.

And he is not done getting better.

We would not be surprised to see Granderson rise to 30 homers, 30 doubles and 30 steals.

Throw in the fact the Tigers have added Miguel Cabrera and Edgar Renteria to their already stacked lineup and you have some very good reasons to take Granderson among the top 10 outfielders off the board on Draft Day, especially in Rotisserie leagues where speed-and-power players are at a premium.

3. Rocco Baldelli

Outfielder | Tampa Bay Rays
Career highs: .302-16-78-89-27

The player who has become known as Rocco Bal-DL-I enters another spring with uncertainty surrounding his health (mostly his legs, most recently his hamstring).

You see caution flags. We see a tremendous sleeper opportunity.

Like our theories on 27s and third-year starters, we also find diamonds in the rough on injury-risk sleepers like him. Someone in your league will reluctantly pick Baldelli after the 40-plus outfielders are off the board. That team just might have the key piece to win your league.

If Baldelli is healthy enough at 27, he can perform like a top-20 outfielder. He is capable of much more, a true high-reward guy available to you in the middle rounds.

4. Hank Blalock

Third baseman | Texas Rangers
Career highs: .300-32-110-107-4

Another player who will be seriously downgraded due to injury woes, Blalock seems like the oldest 27-year-old on the list. He has been around for six years and just turned 27 this November.

The question is how well did his shoulder surgery go last year?

Apparently, smashing. Blalock hit .313 with five homers, a .404 OBP and a .656 SLUG when he returned in September.

Shoulders are the trickiest and scariest injuries for a slugger. You can play with a sore shoulder. You won't be anywhere near your best, though.

Clearly, Blalock hasn't been since 2005, when he was once a lock for 25-plus homers, 90-plus RBI and 80-plus runs. He couldn't have possibly peaked at 23, could he?

5. Chris Duncan

Outfielder | St. Louis Cardinals
Career highs: .293-22-70-60-2

Yet another bad-news, good-news injury-risk sleeper.

Before coming down with a sports hernia that eventually required season-ending surgery, Duncan was hitting .294 on July 26 with 20 of his 21 homers. He played through the injury, sparingly, before shutting it down, hitting just .167 (15-for-90) in August and September. Duncan finished the first half .288-16-47-40 and came out of the break smoking hot.

Duncan will be the Cardinals' full-time left fielder with Rick Ankiel sharing center or right and top prospect Colby Rasmus working in the mix in center. Duncan has yet to play every day, since he tends to sit against left-handed pitching.

Also, we have yet to see him in a full season, so he could be a pleasant surprise for Fantasy owners this year.

6. Josh Hamilton

Outfielder | Texas Rangers
Career highs: .292-19-47-52-3

Someone with the Marlins told us last spring to watch out for Hamilton with the Reds. We said, sure, nice story of a Rule-5 pick coming out of drug addiction to have a nice spring and make the team. We even upgraded our projections some.

But we still fell short on what Hamilton accomplished as a rookie and that person above wound up laughing at us for not listening close enough. For our sake, Hamilton did slow down some due to injury (wrist and hamstring). But for yours, he will come cheaper than he should on Draft Day.

There was a very good reason Hamilton was the No. 1 overall pick in 1999. And he showed it in parts of last year, hitting 19 homers in just 298 at-bats. In his first full season of 500 at-bats, 25-30 homers is certainly reachable. He might even be capable of 40 homers, especially in that hitter's park and with the potential to rest his freak injuries as a DH.

7. Ryan Garko

First baseman | Cleveland Indians
Career highs: .292-21-61-62-0

What you have seen from Garko might not impress you much, especially at the deep first base position, but last year was ostensibly his rookie year. He still has plenty of room to grow into a Fantasy cornerstone.

Our optimistic projections rank him around the 15th best at his position. We would not be surprised to see him develop into a .300-30-100-100 thumper as soon as this year.

Garko's moderate run production last year will have him come cheap on Draft Day and he should easily beat his career bests in that productive Indians lineup.

8. Kevin Kouzmanoff

Third baseman | San Diego Padres
Career highs: .275-18-74-57-1

Like Hamilton and Garko (sort of), the Kouz is another category of sleeper we like: the overlooked sophomore. The theory there is we have seen something from a rookie, most of which didn't necessarily excite us, so we tend to undervalue their potential to improve dramatically in the second year.

The Kouz's overall numbers among third baseman are average or below for most Fantasy leagues, but check out what he did in the second half and you might be more excited: .317-11-37-34-1 (.366 OBP, .524 SLUG). His second chance after the All-Star break showed dramatic improvement from his first trip around the league: .228-7-37-23-0 (.290-.384).

At 27 and a full year under his belt should mean even more strides to becoming a reliable Fantasy option for all leagues.

9. Chris Snyder

Catcher | Arizona Diamondbacks
Career highs: .277-13-47-37-0

We keep tying these together somehow and Snyder, like the Kouz, is another one who showed great promise in the second half. After another disappointing start to the year -- .212-7-16-19-0 (.298-.364) before the break -- we were about to give up on Snyder as a potential top-10 Fantasy catcher.

Rookie Miguel Montero, who has more power potential, was challenging him for at-bats and Snyder wasn't doing anything to pull away -- until after the All-Star break. He helped lead the D-Backs to the postseason, stabilizing the pitching staff and going .292-6-31-18-0 (.386-.503) in the second half.

Snyder is a big man with offensive potential that wasn't apparent to most of us until the final 8-10 weeks. Assuming his glove and handling of the staff keep him in the lineup more than Montero, Snyder can develop into that top-10 catcher we thought he could be.

10. Ryan Doumit

Catcher/outfielder | Pittsburgh Pirates
Career highs: .274-9-35-33-2

Doumit has no starting job, playing the role of backup catcher to fellow 27-year-old Ronny Paulino and part-time outfielder. But he retains catcher eligibility in Fantasy and has a great bat.

He went .305-6-21-22-1 (.381-.509) in the first half last year, before becoming a walking infirmary (hamstring, wrist and ankle injuries) and struggling to stay healthy and in the lineup after the break. His bad second half should bring down his value, but his offensive potential at a weak position will come in handy in many leagues this season.

The lowly Pirates need to play good players and Doumit is one of their better ones, so we think he will prove to be a full-timer before the end of the year.

Other 27s we haven't seen the best of yet and could be in line for career years: UTL Jeff Baker, COL; 3B Jose Bautista, PIT; OF Jason Botts, TEX; C John Buck, KC; OF Nelson Cruz, TEX; OF Jonny Gomes, TB; 2B Brendan Harris, MIN; 1B Mike Jacobs, FLA; OF Austin Kearns, WAS; 3B Dallas McPherson, FA; OF Cody Ross, FLA; 1B Chris Shelton, TEX; OF/1B Nick Swisher, CHW; OF Mark Teahen, KC; OF Shane Victorino, PHI.

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