Draft preview: Busts

Last year, I wrote that Alex Rodriguez was no longer worth the No. 1 overall pick. I also said that Barry Bonds' days as a 35-plus home run hitter are over. According to me, Mark Buehrle, Todd Helton, Brad Lidge and Mark Prior were all 2006 busts.

Granted, I wrote all of that in December, well after the season ended, but still!

Now my editor is asking me to write about busts before they happen. Sheesh!

There are obviously different degrees of busts. For instance, Mark Teixeira blasted 33 homers and 110 RBI last year. While that's a pretty nice stat line, since he was drafted in the first couple rounds of most drafts, that wasn't good enough. As a matter of fact, he hit 11 fewer homer than the year before, with 34 fewer RBI. That is a bust.

Consider any player that delivers far less production and value than where he was drafted as a bust. So it could be a first-round pick that delivered like a fifth rounder (Teixeira) or a fifth-round pick that delivered like a 15th rounder. A bust could even include a No. 1 overall pick (A-Rod) that doesn't live up to his billing.

Calling Captain Obvious

The following list of players should be selected in the middle or later rounds, but because of their names or previous Fantasy stature, many owners might consider taking them earlier. Don't be misled.

Randy Johnson, SP, ARI: The Big Unit won 17 games for the sixth time in the past eight seasons last year. He has 4,544 strikeouts in his career and he's headed back to the team he won the World Series with back in 2001. Unfortunately, he's not bringing the Yankees' offense with him. They were easily the best lineup in the majors and no one received better run support than Johnson. He also recorded the second-highest ERA of his career and he replaces Mariano Rivera with the Diamondbacks' bullpen.

Eric Gagne, RP, TEX: Nine saves, 25 strikeouts, 15 innings. That sounds like the first couple months of Chris Ray's tenure in Baltimore. Instead, it's what Gagne has produced over the past two seasons because of elbow surgery and back problems. Granted, he converted a major-league record 84 consecutive saves a few years ago, but that was in L.A., not Texas. The stage of the draft in which you should be considering Gagne is littered with questionable closers (Brad Lidge, Mike Gonzalez and Ryan Dempster), so taking a chance on Gagne isn't a horrible idea. Just try to handcuff him with his setup man, Akinori Otsuka.

Barry Bonds, OF, SF: Elbow troubles. Knee problems. Steroid questions. A possible indictment. And the chase of sport's most prized career record -- the home run title. This year's decision to draft Bonds is a little easier than last year, since he's finally coming off a subpar year in which he was essentially healthy -- or at least, as healthy as he's going to get. He's still probably a better Rotisserie player than Head-to-Head because he continues to be in and out of the lineup. That will kill you in H2H. Draft him as your third or fourth outfielder and hope for 30 homers.

Todd Jones, RP, DET: What's not to like about the closer on AL Championship squad with 37 saves? Only five pitchers had more saves than Jones last year. All five of them are being drafted in the first eight rounds in most leagues, while Jones is lasting until the 14th and 15th rounds. He's closer to 50 years old than he is 25 and he has one of the game's most promising arms setting him up in the eighth inning in Joel Zumaya, who will surpass him as closer at some point.

J.D. Drew, OF, BOS: Or should we call him J.D.L. Drew? This guy spends so much time in the trainer's room, his teammates call him Doc. Does he have great potential? Certainly. Will he love hitting in Boston's lineup? Of course. Will he be able to dent the Green Monster with doubles? Absolutely. Many are pointing to his 146 games last year as a trend that he can remain healthy for extended periods. But really, when 146 games played is your career-high after nine major-league seasons, that's not something to brag about. He hit only 20 homers last year -- sure, he was in the cavernous Dodger Stadium, but he still only hit eight homers on the road in 69 games. Let someone else deal with getting him in and out of their lineup and take a chance on a more consistent player.

Let the e-mailing me with complaints begin!

Call me the devil's advocate. Each of these following players are extremely talented, but they are also ones that I believe have an excellent chance of producing worse than their draft value indicates.

Alfonso Soriano, OF, CHC: Let me count the ways:

1. Fonsie loses his second-base eligibility this season for the first time in his career. Obviously, he's still a valuable player as an outfielder, but nowhere near as valuable as he was last year, slotted in your second base spot.
2. His career season in '06 (.277-46-95-119-41) was phenomenal, no question, especially considering he did it in the lowest scoring ballpark from 2005. Do we expect those same numbers? Do we expect better numbers? The law of averages would say he's going to come back to earth a bit this year, if even just a little bit. Sure, that could still mean a whopping 34 homers, 100 RBI and 30 steals -- but it's still a dip.
3. Was last year a result of Soriano playing in a contract year? That has definitely been the case in the past, where a player has a huge season with one team, sign a gazillion dollar contract, and then drop in production the next (ala Carlos Beltran in '04 and '05).
4. This is now his second full season in the NL. Pitchers, and more importantly pitching coaches, will know him better this year. Toward the end of last year, it's possible the pitching started to catch up with him a bit. In September, he hit only.204 with three homers with 11 RBI, though he did have a similar dip the previous year, his last month in Texas.
5. He's now a Cub. That has jinx written all over it.

With all of that said, realize that I'm not telling you to skip him in the first round. But I'm seeing an awful lot of drafts with him at the No. 2 spot behind Albert Pujols, bypassing Jose Reyes and Ryan Howard. That's not wise. Consider taking him a little later in the first round if he's still there.

Carlos Beltran, OF, NYM: Don't forget that this Mets' slugger also had a rough final month of the season, in which he hit only .203, mostly due to a bruised knee. He'll be back for more in '07, but his roller coaster stats over the past three seasons -- and his dip in steals with the Mets -- has to be a concern. He has a total of 35 steals with the Mets, which is less than what he did in each of his previous two seasons with the Royals. He's a great talent, but again, he's going in the later part of the first round, when a second-round draft choice might be more reasonable.

Carlos Lee, OF, HOU: Again, Lee is coming off of a year in which he was playing for a multi-million dollar contract -- and he came through with a career season (.300-38-116-102-19). Houston boasts a solid hitter's park and having Lance Berkman in the lineup helps greatly. But Texas was a power-hitter's park as well, and he couldn't produce what he did in Milwaukee earlier in the year.

Jered Weaver, Justin Verlander, Cole Hamels: Each of these '06 rookies came through with superb stats, likely helping their Fantasy teams toward the top of the heap in pitching. But the second seasons are usually a little tougher than the first. Opponents have had an entire offseason to break them down. They've also had an entire offseason to hear how great they are. Each of these players is being drafted somewhere between the 7th-11th rounds. Go with the more reliable, consistent pitchers in that same area of the draft like John Lackey, Jason Schmidt and Chien-Ming Wang. Remember the sophomore slump Felix Hernandez experienced.

J.J. Putz, RP, Seattle: No other position sees more players rise and fall as quickly as the closer position. Putz pitched lights-out baseball once he took over the job for good from Eddie Guardado, but has he shown enough in the past few years to indicate that he's ready to continue his dominance? Many closers learn the ropes as middle relievers and setup men, but Putz wasn't a great -- or even very good -- middle reliever in '04 and '05. He basically struck out less than a batter per inning and his combined ERA was over 4.00. Last season, he's suddenly striking out almost 1.5 batters per inning and his WHIP was incredible (0.919). Don't invest too highly on him at this volatile position.

Gary Matthews, OF, LAA: Is there a better example of a player expected to drop off after signing a fat contract because of a career year than Matthews? He doesn't do a lot of anything really well and he's leaving the cozy confines of Ameriquest Field. Only Petco Park allowed fewer runs per game than Angel Stadium last season. That can't help his Rotisserie numbers.

Salomon Torres, RP, PIT: Again, we're talking about a career middle reliever who soon looks to be the official closer for the humdrum Pirates. He was out of this world once he closed games for Pittsburgh when Mike Gonzalez went down with injury. His potential made it possible for the Pirates to send Gonzalez to Atlanta for slugger Adam LaRoche, But his 1.457 WHIP is uncomfortable for a Fantasy owner to swallow and the Pirates aren't expected to get him too many save opportunities. And don't forget that he doesn't have himself pitching in the eighth, setting up for himself.

Daisuke Matsuzaka, SP, BOS: The Japanese import is going in the fifth and sixth rounds of many drafts before he has even pitched one inning in a major league uniform. Even Ichiro Suzuki, possibly the greatest Japanese import to enter the majors, was drafted in the 11th and 12th rounds of most 2001 drafts in his rookie season. Matsuzaka is a talented pitcher, no doubt, but how will he do against the Yankees' lineup? Or even Baltimore's, Toronto's or Tampa Bay's for that matter? Each is stocked with talented sluggers. Fenway Park was the fifth-easiest AL park to score in last season and he'll be thrust right into the league's biggest rivalry immediately. Consider going with Scott Kazmir, Curt Schilling or even John Smoltz instead. Sure, Matsuzaka is being touted as an incredible talent, but the risk of using a fifth-round pick on him is just too great.

Jonathan Papelbon, P, BOS: The former rookie standout closer now takes his shot in the Boston rotation. Without question, he put together a remarkable year in relief, with just a 0.92 ERA in over 68 innings. But a shoulder injury ended his season early and the Red Sox hope letting him start every five days will be kinder on his joint. He's still an unknown as a major league starter, so don't draft him any earlier than the 10-12th rounds.

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