Draft preview: Overlooked sophomores

FORT LAUDERDALE -- Things usually come easier the second time around -- like riding a bike, getting past third base under the high school bleachers or, for some, the first grade.

If this holds true for last year's legendary rookie class, whoa Nellie.

Take one sophomore, Baltimore's Nick Markakis. He knows first hand about success the second time around. He really made it look easy in the second half after a difficult start last year.

"It's a little bit of overload sometimes (starting out in the big leagues) -- just trying to take in things," he said Wednesday, preparing for his first camp as a lock for the opening-day lineup, perhaps as the team's pivotal No. 3 hitter. "That first half I put behind me, get it out of the way. Then, coming into the second half, I was more confident."

After a huge spring in which he rose up to be the most surprising rookie to make an opening-day roster, he struggled out of the gate, hitting .268 with just two homers, 21 RBI and 29 runs.

"I have always been in the past -- even in college -- I have been a slow starter," he said. "I tried to not let that affect me. I went out there in the first half and didn't do what I wanted to do, and it just made me work harder."

And something clicked.

Something he says he cannot even explain. He went .311-14-41-43 after the All-Star break -- a split extrapolated over a full season that would make him one of the most highly sought outfielders in Fantasy this spring.

But, we remind you, he finished just sixth in the Rookie of the Year vote behind Justin Verlander, Jonathan Papelbon, Francisco Liriano, Jered Weaver and Kenji Johjima.

And that was just the AL. Yes. It was quite a year.

But, you see, we have our annual list of theories about finding hidden gems on Draft Day -- and one of the favorites is that of the overlooked sophomore. The mantra is: Unlike rookies, we have seen the players, but we don't always like everything we have seen. And sometimes -- not in Markakis' case -- what we have seen is that they just weren't any good.

Not everyone can be an instant Albert Pujols, Ryan Howard or Jered Weaver success. (And not everyone will have a chance to get players like that on their Fantasy teams.)

It takes time for some, and a second year can be just enough.

"Learn the league and the pitching and the way they play," Markakis said. "I am still learning stuff every day. You ask the guys, the veterans, they learn stuff every day. There's always something to learn."

Fantasy drafters must be forgetting what we learned in the second half. Granted, Markakis' full season line of .291-16-62-72-2 doesn't look all that spectacular for most Fantasy leagues, and we have him No. 177 in our Top 300. But people tend to buy on the previous year's totals.

Markakis is currently going around 201st overall (on Feb. 22) in our Head-to-Head draft averages. That is 43rd among outfielders alone ...

... for someone who could develop into .300-25-90-100-10. We cautiously project him to go .291-20-73-80-4, but there is obviously room for much more -- especially coming off his second half.

"I would be happy with .240, 10 home runs and 70 RBI," the unassuming, soft-spoken Markakis said.

We wouldn't in Fantasy leagues, honestly.

"I just go out there and play," he said. "Numbers take care of themselves."

It's the "still unknown, yet to be seen" or potential "sophomore jinx" that helps second-year men like Markakis slip on Draft Day. With that in mind, here are our top 10 overlooked sophomores, which are ranked according to their potential to help you as a sleeper in the later rounds -- not necessarily how they will go off the board:

(We consider all those players whose Rookie of the Year eligibility expired in their past season)

1. 2B Kelly Johnson, Atlanta Braves

Draft Averages (NL-only, Rotisserie, overall): 212th
Draft Averages (NL-only, Rotisserie, second base): 17th
2007 Projections: .263 AVG, 14 HR, 55 RBI, 60 R, 7 SB

Talk about overlooked. Johnson doesn't even appear on our Draft Averages for mixed leagues, meaning he's lower than 300-some-odd overall. This is a guy who had his ROY moments in 2005 before missing all of last season due to Tommy John elbow surgery (yes, a red-shirt sophomore in our book). Johnson should be the Braves' starting second baseman and leadoff man, replacing Marcus Giles in both capacities. Manager Bobby Cox, who knows a thing or two about talent, says Johnson can hit 20 homers as early as this year and post a solid on-base percentage. Only five 2B-eligible players hit more than that last season (Chase Utley, Dan Uggla, Ray Durham, Ty Wigginton and Craig Biggio). Note: Some leagues might only allow Johnson to be an outfielder on Draft Day and opening day, because that is the position he played in 2005.

2. OF Jeremy Hermida, Florida Marlins

Draft Averages (Mixed, Head-to-Head, overall): 278th
Draft Averages (Mixed, Head-to-Head, outfield): 58th
2007 Projections: .280-18-65-70-8

We would rank Markakis in this list, but Hermida is the poor man's Markakis now. Unlike his fellow Georgia-area outfield prospect, Hermida was completely awful last season. And that's after we ranked him as our No. 2 rookie to target on Draft Day 2006. The Marlins outfielder reportedly has the J.D. Drew-syndrome -- someone who plays so easily it looks like he's not trying. Well, he remains a big-time prospect and could pop this year as a late-round pick for you. Hermida epitomizes the overlooked sophomore, because all we have seen from him is bad results and wildly promising scouting reports. We had said Hermida might be the best among the Georgia-outfield prospect trio -- himself, Jeff Francoeur and Markakis -- but he's a distant third right now.

3. OF Carlos Quentin, Arizona Diamondbacks

Draft Averages (Mixed, Head-to-Head, overall): 216th
Draft Averages (Mixed, Head-to-Head, outfield): 45th
2007 Projections: .273-26-90-73-4

It's not that people might not have liked what they saw from Quentin when he was called up last year. It's just that there is always the tendency to look at totals -- his were .253-9-32-23-1 -- and not be impressed. Quentin wasn't a top Rookie of the Year candidate last year and won't be eligible this year, because he had just enough at-bats, so the hype is less on him than it should be. Rookie of the Year candidacy tends to drive up awareness and hype on players -- and Quentin is the class of that category of sophomore who was never a true ROY candidate. Prospect hounds know, though: Quentin is a future .300-30-100-100 slugger. It won't come this year, but he will do enough to pay huge, huge dividends in relation to his draft position.

4. SP Anthony Reyes, St. Louis Cardinals

Draft Averages (Mixed, Rotisserie, overall): 265th
Draft Averages (Mixed, Rotisserie, pitchers): 107th
2007 Projections: 12-11, 4.17 ERA, 158 Ks, 1.368 WHIP (190 innings)

Reyes was decent but not good enough in 2006 to be highly sought after this spring. Despite going 5-8 with an unspectacular 5.08 ERA, he remains a top pitching prospect and working for pitching coach Dave Duncan's rotation will make him a solid contributor for Fantasy owners as a low-investment mound ace. Duncan is a brilliant masseuse of arms, annually having a staff of double-digit winners behind a Pujols-led offense. Reyes can be great with only a little bit more command, which should come in Year 2 (and especially in Year 3, by the way).

5. SP John Maine, New York Mets

Draft Averages (Mixed, Rotisserie, overall): 276th
Draft Averages (Mixed, Rotisserie, pitchers): 113th
2007 Projections: (11-12)-4.03-132-1.343 (181 innings)

Maine is being selected just after Reyes in most drafts, but he has perhaps even a better contender to pitch for than the world champs. That Mets offense is dynamic and more dominant and their pitching staff is just as wide open for someone to step forward as a big-time winner. Our projections for Maine don't do justice for what he did down the stretch last year: 6-2, 3.28 ERA in the second half. More impressive with Maine is his .211 batting-average against as a starter and his 1.133 WHIP. Pitching coach Rick Peterson really has turned him into a budding star quickly.

6. 2B Howie Kendrick, L.A. Angels of Anaheim

Draft Averages (Mixed, Head-to-Head, overall): 190th
Draft Averages (Mixed, Head-to-Head, second basemen): 17th
2007 Projections: .296-14-80-70-14

We consider Kendrick a poor man's Rickie Weeks, only because his homer and steals potential is not as intriguing at this point. Kendrick has the potential to be a batting champion, though, which is making him one of the trickiest sophomores to gauge on Draft Day. Some websites (not this one) have taken Kendrick in the Weeks area (top-5 2B, top-100 overall) among Fantasy second basemen in analyst leagues. That's way too early, but it is a signal of what people think of Kendrick's potential. If you can get him in the area he's going on CBS SportsLine's draft averages, he will be classified as a steal when the dust settles.

7. 1B Mike Jacobs, Florida Marlins

Draft Averages (Mixed, Rotisserie, overall): 298th
Draft Averages (Mixed, Rotisserie, first basemen): 28th
2007 Projections: .270-25-85-70-3

True story (as if we report anything other than those): At Doc McNab's Boston-themed sports bar in Pompano Beach, Fla., a place CBS SportsLine and friends frequent, a "veteran" who didn't know we were sitting there was overheard calling out the CBS SportsLine Fantasy Baseball magazine for it's "awful" projection of just 25 homers for Jacobs. He was suggesting "30-35 easy." Now, it is South Florida, where there are actually a few Marlins fans, but we were surprised to hear someone jocking Jacobs so hard after his .262-20-77-54-3 rookie year. Then, looking at where he's being drafted on our website right now, we have to admit, he is being overlooked. If you notice below, a lot of solid young first basemen will be overlooked because it's one of the few veteran stud positions in Fantasy Baseball.

8. 1B Ryan Garko, Cleveland Indians

Draft Averages (AL-only, Head-to-Head, overall): 145th
Draft Averages (AL-only, Head-to-Head, first basemen): 13th
2007 Projections: .290-19-79-63-2

Like Johnson above, Garko doesn't appear in the top 300-plus of our draft averages for mixed leagues, so we had to dip into the AL-only pool to see where he's going. We list him here as one of the top 10 overlooked sophomore sleepers because if he gets enough at-bats, he will be outproducing some of the first basemen taking up space on mixed-league Fantasy rosters this season. The problem is will he get full-time at-bats? Right now the Indians are considering having Garko share time with Casey Blake at first, because they have David Dellucci, Trot Nixon and Jason Michaels taking up the at-bats in the corner outfield spots. Garko is a converted catcher slugger in the Carlos Delgado mold. A .300-30-100-100 player is possible here when he hits his prime.

9. 3B Andy Marte, Cleveland Indians

Draft Averages (Mixed, Head-to-Head, overall): 291st
Draft Averages (Mixed, Head-to-Head, third basemen): 26th
2007 Projections: .280-19-80-72-2

Like Quentin above, Marte is a highly regarded prospect who will tend to get overlooked because he didn't really make a big splash as a rookie -- especially since there were mixed results in the first go-around (.226-5-23-20-0 in 164 at-bats) and he didn't get a sniff of love for AL Rookie of the Year. Well, you should consider the fact the Indians wouldn't deal a Kevin Kouzmanoff unless they're confident in the rewards of Marte. Our above projections are a little optimistic at this point, but we have long considered Marte "the next Adrian Beltre."

10. LH SP Jon Lester, Boston Red Sox

Draft Averages (Mixed, Head-to-Head, overall): 295th
Draft Averages (Mixed, Head-to-Head, pitchers): 130th
2007 Projections: 8-5, 4.14, 95, 1.460 (126 innings)

Because he is coming off Lymphoma and is likely to start the year in the minors, it actually makes sense Lester is going 130th overall among Head-to-Head pitchers. Heck, that's before 20 pitchers who will actually have a big-league job. But, Lester is an immense talent -- the best of the few pitchers on this list -- and will be in a great situation with the contending Red Sox when he gets the recall. If that comes out of spring training, look out. It could be steal city here.

Sophomore rankings

Here are baseball's sophomores position-by-position, with the ones who could be overlooked on Draft Day in bold.

Catcher: 1. Kenji Johjima, 2. Russell Martin, 3. Ronny Paulino, 4. Eliezer Alfonzo, 5. Chris Coste, 6. Kelly Shoppach

First base: 1. Prince Fielder, 2. Conor Jackson 3. Howie Kendrick, 4. Mike Jacobs, 5. Ryan Shealy, 6. Scott Thorman, 7. Ryan Garko, 8. Kendry Morales

Second base: 1. Dan Uggla, 2. Josh Barfield, 3. Ian Kinsler , 4. Howie Kendrick , 5. Kelly Johnson

Third base: 1. Ryan Zimmerman, 2. Andy Marte

Shortstop: 1. Hanley Ramirez, 2. Stephen Drew , 3. Ben Zobrist, 4. Ronny Cedeno

Outfield: 1. Nick Markakis, 2. Josh Willingham, 3. Carlos Quentin , 4. Chris Duncan, 5. Andre Ethier, 6. Jeremy Hermida , 7. Luke Scott, 8. Matt Kemp , 9. Shane Victorino , 10. Corey Hart , 11. Shin-Soo Choo, 12. Melky Cabrera, 13. Nelson Cruz , 14. Lastings Milledge , 15. Brian N. Anderson, 16. Nate McClouth, 17. Chris Denorfia, 18. Ben Johnson, 19. Chris Snelling, 20. Brent Clevlen, 21. Franklin Gutierrez, 22. Todd Linden

Starting pitchers: 1. Jered Weaver, 2. Justin Verlander, 3. Cole Hamels, 4. Matt Cain, 5. Josh Johnson, 6. Anibal Sanchez, 7. Scott Olsen, 8. Boof Bonser , 9. Jeremy Sowers , 10. Rich Hill, 11. Anthony Reyes , 12. Chuck James, 13. Chad Billingsley , 14. John Maine , 15. Ian Snell, 16. Ricky Nolasco, 17. Paul Maholm, 18. Tom Gorzelanny, 19. Joe Saunders , 20. Adam Loewen, 21. Jon Lester , 22. Hayden Penn, 23. James Shields, 24. Angel Guzman, 25. Taylor Buchholz

Relief pitchers: 1. Takashi Saito, 2. Jonathan Papelbon*, 3. Adam Wainwright*, 4. Joel Zumaya, 5. Taylor Tankersley , 6. Pat Neshek, 7. Jonathan Broxton, 8. Bill Bray , 9. Cla Meredith, 10. Wes Littleton

Note: * Might not be SP eligible yet in your league.

You can e-mail Emack your Fantasy Baseball questions to DMFantasyBaseball@cbs.com. Be sure to put Attn: Sophomores in the subject field. Please include your full name, hometown and state. Be aware, due to the large volume of submissions received, we do not guarantee personal responses or answers to all questions.